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THE RELATIONSHIP between POLITICAL OBJECTIVES and MILITARY OBJECTIVES in WAR

THE RELATIONSHIP between POLITICAL OBJECTIVES and MILITARY OBJECTIVES in WAR. EXPERIMENTAL Not Approved For Pediatric Use. Dr. Christopher Bassford with COL William Andrews, USAF National War College. LONG VERSION v.FEB 2014. MODEST. EXTREME. (i.e., objectives that might lead to war ).

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THE RELATIONSHIP between POLITICAL OBJECTIVES and MILITARY OBJECTIVES in WAR

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  1. THE RELATIONSHIPbetweenPOLITICAL OBJECTIVESandMILITARY OBJECTIVESinWAR EXPERIMENTALNot Approved For Pediatric Use Dr. Christopher Bassfordwith COL William Andrews, USAFNational War College LONG VERSIONv.FEB 2014

  2. MODEST EXTREME (i.e., objectives that might lead to war)

  3. MODEST EXTREME ?

  4. MODEST EXTREME ? Onlyexamples—theactual spectrum isinfinite.

  5. *renamed renamed * High-end ?

  6. *renamed renamed * High-end ? Can we finda reasonably neat way to dividethese objectives intoTWO subsets?

  7. High-end SURVIVAL

  8. SURVIVAL Does he understand that you will permit him to survive?Does he believe that he will survive your victory?Are your intentions even relevant?(i.e., is there somebody else who will destroy him if you win?)

  9. ^ And what/who is thatentity and how far into its gutsdo we need to go?

  10. When its survival isat stake, how long will the entity’s leadership continueto defend itself? (Military is not theDecisive Instrument)

  11. High-end When its survival isat stake, how long will the entity’s leadership continueto defend itself? * *Governments seldom commit suicide, and politicians faced with extinction are normally willing to fight to the last soldier.

  12. High-end What does “SURVIVAL”mean to thisparticular enemy?

  13. High-end Is “SURVIVAL” really thekey issue, or are we actually askingabout whether what we propose to do willprovoke the enemy population into maximum resistance? So, what factors might affector determine the level of resistancethe enemy will offer?

  14. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL Is there asimilar taxonomy formilitary objectives?

  15. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE? HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE? Is there asimilar taxonomy formilitary objectives?

  16. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE? HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE? Is there asimilar taxonomy formilitary objectives? What labels do various theorists apply to these two poles?(And why is it so hard to find good labels?) Limited AimsCoercionExhaustionAttritionErosion To DisarmOverthrowAnnihilationCompellance Incapacitation

  17. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE War to achieve “limited aims”- offensive war with a limited aim- defensive war (aim is both limited and negative) War to “disarm” the enemy“to render [the enemy] politically helplessor militarily impotent" CLAUSEWITZ

  18. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE War to achieve “limited aims”- offensive war with a limited aim- defensive war War to “disarm” the enemy“to render [the enemy] politically helplessor militarily impotent" DIRECTIONAL NEEDLE CLAUSEWITZ A SPECTRUM

  19. “The first, the supreme, the most far-reaching act of judgment that the statesman and commander have to make is to establish by that test the kind of war on which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, something that is alien to its nature. This is the first of all strategic questions and the most comprehensive.” Carl von Clausewitz, ON WAR(Howard/Paret trans.), p.88.

  20. “The first, the supreme, the most far-reaching act of judgment that the statesman and commander have to make is to establishby that testthe kind of war on which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, something that is alien to its nature. This is the first of all strategic questions and the most comprehensive.” Carl von Clausewitz, ON WAR(Howard/Paret trans.), p.88. For some reason, quoters of this piece almost always leave these three words out (“…”).

  21. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE ? ? Ermattungsstragie: a strategy of exhaustion or attrition. Niederwerfungsstrategie:a strategy of overthrow or annihilation. HANS DELBRÜCK Same taxonomy, different theorist, different labeling.

  22. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE Word problems:“Annihilate” means “eliminatemilitary capacity,” NOT“exterminate.” Annihilation Overthrow CoercionExhaustionAttritionEROSION [But no one will buy that.] “Overthrow”?Sounds political. HANS DELBRÜCK

  23. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE Annihilation Overthrow More word problems:“Attrition”--fatally tarredby association with 1864,WWI, Vietnam. AttritionExhaustion “Exhaustion”?Might be OK. HANS DELBRÜCK

  24. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(Inflict Stress) HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) Strategy of Coercion: a strategy that “seeks to affect the behavior of an opponent by manipulating costs and benefits.” Strategy of Compellance:a strategy that “seeks to force the opponent to accept political objectives even though he has the will to resist.” ROBERT PAPE (i.e., he has the will, but you have deprived him of the military means. But have you?) Same taxonomy, different theorist, different labeling. (Military is not theDecisive Instrument)

  25. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL “Affect?” Sounds pretty vague. LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(Inflict Stress) HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) What do you really mean? Strategy of Coercion: a strategy that “seeks to affect the behavior of an opponent by manipulating costs and benefits.” Strategy of Compellance:a strategy that “seeks to force the opponent to accept political objectives even though he has the will to resist.” ROBERT PAPE Same taxonomy, different theorist, different labeling. (Military is not theDecisive Instrument)

  26. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(Inflict Stress) HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) Strategy of Coercion:a strategy that “seeks to affect the behavior of an opponent by manipulating costs and benefits.” Strategy of Compellance:a strategy that “seeks to force the opponent to accept political objectives even though he has the will to resist.” Unfortunately,these two words mean the same thing.Bad buzzwordology. ROBERT PAPE

  27. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE “Incapacition” is literally correct. When you say it, however, people hear “nonlethal.” OverthrowAnnihilationIncapacitation "The fighting forces must be destroyed: that is, they must be put in such a condition that they can no longer carry on the fight. Whenever we use the phrase ‘destruction of the enemy's forces,’ this alone is what we mean." Clausewitz, On War, p.90

  28. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end High-end SURVIVAL SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(Inflict Stress) SUGGESTED LABELS HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) CoercionExhaustionAttritionErosionCoercionEROSION CompellanceOverthrowIncapacitationAnnihilationDISARMorINCAPACITATE

  29. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end High-end SURVIVAL SURVIVAL “For if war is an act of violence meant to force the enemy to do our will its aim would have always and solely to be to overcome the enemy and disarm him. That aim is derived from the theoretical concept of war; but since many wars do actually come very close to fulfilling it, let us examine this kind of war first of all.” Clausewitz, On War, p.90 LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(Inflict Stress) SUGGESTED LABELS HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) Temporarily,Long-term, or Permanently? EROSION DISARMorINCAPACITATE TARGET:The adversary’sMILITARY CAPACITYto continue the struggle "The fighting forces must be destroyed: that is, they must be put in such a condition that they can no longer carry on the fight. Whenever we use the phrase ‘destruction of the enemy's forces’ this alone is what we mean." Clausewitz, On War, p.90

  30. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL Stress comes in many varieties. Here we mean political pain. How might we use military means to inflict political pain? LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(Inflict Stress) SUGGESTED LABELS HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) Make the enemyprefer ending the war on our terms to continuing the struggle. EROSION TO DISARMorTO INCAPACITATE Convince theenemy that the pursuit of peace on his own terms is too dangerous, too painful, or too unlikely tosucceed. TARGET:The adversary’sMILITARY CAPACITYto continue the struggle TARGET:The adversary’s WILL to continuethe struggle

  31. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(Inflict Stress) CoercionExhaustionAttritionErosionCoercionEROSION CompellanceOverthrowIncapacitationAnnihilationDISARMorINCAPACITATE HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) { } MILITARYOBJECTIVE TARGET:The adversary’s MILITARY CAPACITY to continue the struggle TARGET:The adversary’s WILL to continuethe struggle

  32. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL Need a Video Demonstration? LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(Inflict Stress) HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) CoercionExhaustionAttritionErosionCoercionEROSION CompellanceOverthrowIncapacitationAnnihilationDISARMorINCAPACITATE } { These two things are not easily distinguishable fromeach other. MILITARYOBJECTIVE TARGET:The adversary’sMILITARY CAPACITY to continue the struggle TARGET:The adversary’sWILL to continuethe struggle

  33. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(Inflict Stress) HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) CoercionExhaustionAttritionErosionCoercionEROSION CompellanceOverthrowIncapacitationAnnihilationDISARMorINCAPACITATE } { SpecificallyWHOSE will and/or military capacity really counts? MILITARYOBJECTIVE TARGET:The adversary’s MILITARY CAPACITYto continue the struggle TARGET:The adversary’s WILLto continuethe struggle

  34. So, a limited political objective is best served by a limited military objective, and a high-end political objective is best served by the objective of militarilydisarming/ incapacitating/annihilating the opposing force. Right?

  35. So, a limited political objective is best served by a limited military objective, and a high-end political objective is best served by the objective of militarilydisarming/ incapacitating/annihilating the opposing force. Right? NO. NO.

  36. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(Inflict Stress) HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) Can we make a high-end military objective serve limited political ends?

  37. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL SURVIVAL LIMITEDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(Inflict Stress) HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) Sure we can. Can we make a high-end military objective serve limited political ends?

  38. SURVIVAL HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) LIMITED orHIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVES Erode Disarm/Incapacitate Disarm/Incapacitate or DIRECTIONAL NEEDLE A SPECTRUM

  39. SURVIVAL HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) LIMITED orHIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVES Erode Disarm/Incapacitate Disarm/Incapacitate or What does “SPECTRUM” mean? You mean, the enemy leadership can both survive and perish, in differing proportions,simultaneously? DIRECTIONAL NEEDLE A SPECTRUM

  40. SURVIVAL HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) LIMITED orHIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVES By “spectrum,” we mean that these political and military elements can be combined in different ways, that we can threaten one but settle for the other, that the players can redefine “victory” and “survival” in mid-war, etc. Erode Disarm/Incapacitate Disarm/Incapacitate or What does “SPECTRUM” mean? You mean, the enemy leadership can both survive and perish,simultaneously? DIRECTIONAL NEEDLE A SPECTRUM

  41. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) LIMITED orHIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVES Erode Disarm/Incapacitate or

  42. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) LIMITED orHIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVES Erode Disarm/Incapacitate or EXAMPLES?

  43. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) LIMITED orHIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVES LIMITED POLITICAL and MILITARY OBJECTIVES US used limited force against the Bosnian Serbs in order to force them to reach a negotiated settlement with the Croats and Bosnian Muslims.

  44. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) LIMITED orHIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVES LIMITED POLITICAL OBJECTIVES and HIGH-ENDMILITARY OBJECTIVES LIMITED POLITICAL and MILITARY OBJECTIVES US invaded Mexico, completely defeated its army, and occupied its capital, in order to carve off some border provinces. US used limited force against the Bosnian Serbs in order to force them to reach a negotiated settlement with the Croats and Bosnian Muslims.

  45. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) LIMITED orHIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVES A FAILED EXAMPLE LIMITED POLITICAL OBJECTIVES and HIGH-ENDMILITARY OBJECTIVES Napoleon was not trying to conquer Russia, only to force it to cooperate with Napoleon’s economic blockade of Britain. But he sought to convince the Czar to cooperate by destroying his army and occupying Moscow.

  46. C.BASSFORD – CLAUSEWITZ.COM High-end SURVIVAL HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) LIMITED orHIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVES MIS-FIRE Prussia completely defeated the French military in order to gain a free hand in Germany (to unify it). Collapse of French government was an unintentional and unwelcome side-effect. (They won anyway. Except that 48 years later….)

  47. High-end SURVIVAL HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) LIMITED orHIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVES UNION vsCONFEDERACY US vs SADDAM 2003 HIGH-END POLITICALand MILITARY OBJECTIVES

  48. High-end SURVIVAL HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) LIMITED orHIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVES HIGH-END POLITICALand MILITARY OBJECTIVES US invaded Panama, completely defeated its military, and installed a new government.

  49. High-end SURVIVAL HIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVE(DISARM) LIMITED orHIGH-ENDMILITARYOBJECTIVES BOTH at ONCE NVN vsUS NVN vsRVN DIFFERENT STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES AGAINST DIFFERENT ENEMIES IN THE SAME PLACE AND TIME

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