Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016

1. Concept briefing for a proposed comprehensive, coastal-centric, catastrophic earthquake and tsunami EOC functional exercise in 2016 Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016 WSEMA – September 17, 2013 Patrick Massey Federal Preparedness Coordinator Director, National Preparedness Division FEMA Region 10 Patrick.massey@fema.dhs.gov Terry Egan Unit Manager Plans, Exercises, Training WA Emergency Mgt Division Terry.egan@mil.wa.gov V3

2. CSZ Exercise 2016 The CSZ 2016 Exercise is a progressive exercise series commencing in early 2014 with building block training and exercise ramp-up events culminating in a comprehensive four day EOC-to-EOC functional exercise in the Spring 2016. Focus on coastal jurisdictions and tribes along with select I-5 corridor and Eastern WA jurisdictions. Map : Cascadia Subduction Zone Fault Line

3. CSZ Exercise 2016 Scenario Overview • Magnitude 9.0 earthquake. • Direct impacts to States of Oregon and Washington. • Complete rupture of the 800-mile fault line. • Impacts affecting over 140,000 square miles. • Severe ground shaking lasting up to 5 minutes. • 20’ to 80’ tsunami impacting the entire coastline within 15-30 minutes. • Numerous aftershocks with several of M7.0+. Washington Oregon California Crescent City Simulation of a M9.0 CSZ earthquake. Graphic provided by Pacific Northwest Seismic Network

4. Map : Highway Road Segments in the Cascadia Region with Expected Damages ranging from Slight to Complete under the 90th-Percentile Case Scenario. CSZ Exercise 2016 CSZ Earthquake/Tsunami Impacts • 15,000 deaths; tens-of-thousands injured throughout three coastal states. • 3 million households impacted. • 800,000 requiring shelter. • Extreme transportation impacts to I-5 corridor west to coastline. Coastal communities isolated. • Major extended disruptions to critical infrastructure lifelines (electricity, refined fuels, water supply, etc.) • Tremendous need for critical life-saving and life-sustaining resources – extensive mutual aid needed.

5. CSZ Exercise 2016 Strategic Goals: Enhance Joint Operations – Success in managing the consequences of a wide-area catastrophic disaster hinges on how well local, state, tribal, and federal actions and the whole community are integrated and synchronized. The desire is for all exercise players at all levels to gain an appreciation of the sheer necessity of joint unified action. Instill an operational mindset shift to ‘catastrophic’ – Our elasticity and ability to stretch to handle the impacts of a catastrophic disaster is a daunting challenge. We need to plan and exercise for the worse. Planning Springboard – The lessons learned in the CSZ 2016 Exercise will be used to develop and/or update CSZ and related catastrophic disaster response plans at all levels and to inform future exercise design.

6. CSZ Exercise 2016 Exercise Mission Statement: Collaboratively plan, design, and conduct a comprehensive functional exercise that tests local, state, tribal, and federal catastrophic earthquake plans to improve our joint-interagency and whole community ability to effectively respond to a wide-area, catastrophic earthquake and tsunami caused by a rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) fault along the Northwest coast of the United States. Draft-proposed

7. CSZ Exercise 2016 Exercise Participants (Anticipated) • WA Coastal counties, cities, and tribes • Select WA I-5 Corridor and East-of-the-Cascades Counties (TBD) • WA EMD • WA state agency ESFs • Supporting States (AK and ID) • FEMA Region X and federal agency ESFs • FEMA National Response Coordination Center (NRCC) • Department of Defense • NORTHCOM, NRNW, NGB, etc. • Nongovernmental Organizations (VOAD) • Major private sector partners • Private and public critical infrastructure lifeline providers • International partners (e.g. British Columbia) • Public (e.g., Tsunami Evacuation Drills - TBD)

8. CSZ Exercise 2016 The CSZ 2016 Functional Exercise will test EOC-to-EOC ability to perform tasks and objectives (TBD) associated with all Response Core Capabilities: • Critical Transportation • Environmental Response / Health and Safety • Fatality Management • Infrastructure Systems • Mass Care Services • Mass Search and Rescue Operations • On-Scene Security and Protection • Operational Communications • Operational Coordination • Planning • Public Health and Medical Services • Public Information and Warning • Public and Private Services and Resources • Situational Assessment

9. CSZ Exercise 2016 Exercise Planning Timeline Socialize Concept Scenario Document Extent of Play Agreements C&E Training CSZ 2016 Exercise ‘Ground Truth’ Document EXPLAN EEGs 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Exercise Series ‘Kick Off’ Meeting Concept and Objectives Meeting Initial Planning Meeting Mid-Term Planning Meeting MSEL Synchronization Meetings Final Planning Meeting After Action Report Published Please note: A number of ramp-up events to include training courses, seminars, workshops, tabletops (all TBD) will be conducted prior to the culminating functional exercise.

10. CSZ Exercise 2016 Why an Exercise in 2016? • Culminating point to many recent CSZ and catastrophic earthquake planning efforts at the local, state, tribal, and federal level. • Allows adequate time to update plans, policies and procedures; also allows time to build and design a complex exercise with many participants. • Implement a building block approach to train and exercise staffs on EOC-specific plans and procedures and joint-operations. • Significant amount of ‘areas for improvement’ identified in previous local and larger exercises (e.g., Evergreen Quake Exercise Series).

11. CSZ Exercise 2016 Exercise Parameters – the concept as it stands now: • A four-day response functional exercise (FE). • Focus on WA coastal communities with select communities along I-5 corridor and Eastern WA. • EOCs at all levels playing and activated to highest level – city, county, state, tribes, feds, private sector. • All field-play simulated (with possibility of some actual field elements TBD) via Injects-MSEL distributed via Control/Simulation cell. • Date: late May or early June 2016 (exact days TBD). • Goal of 24-hour play. Options of 12-hour or 8-hour play each day (TBD). • Local level of participation each day is objectives driven. Plenty of TBD based on partner input

12. CSZ Exercise 2016 Considerations The following are some of the major issues that will need to be determined in designing the CSZ 2016 Functional Exercise: • Include components of Continuity of Operations into the exercise? • Duration of EOC play each day (24hrs, 12hrs, 8hrs)? • Telecommunications outage play during the exercise or in a separate drill? • Exercise length > 4 days? • Type of ramp-up events(trainings, seminars, etc.)? Jurisdictions not playing in the exercise will be highly encouraged to serve on the Exercise Design Team and to assist neighboring communities that are playing

13. CSZ Exercise 2016 The Risk: Need to recognize funding and staff limitations and other constraints in the design and conduct of this exercise and associated events.

14. CSZ Exercise 2016 The path forward over next several months: • Socialize concept to local, state, tribal, federal, and other partners. • Gather comments from exercise participants. • Conduct “Kick-off” meeting in January/February 2014. • Brief and discuss the exercise concept with whole community • Discuss the exercise planning/design governance structure • Solicit candidates to serve as exercise design team leaders • Discuss Extent-of-Play Agreement (XPA) parameters • Solicit and then vote on the exercise name and logo

15. CSZ Exercise 2016 For More Information Contact: WA EMD • Name: Brittany Ginn • Position: State Exercise Program Manager • Email: brittany.ginn@mil.wa.gov FEMA Region 10 • Name: Stephen Simerly • Position: Regional Exercise Officer • Email: stephen.simerly@fema.dhs.gov

16. CSZ Exercise 2016 Questions? i