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# Three Things (I think I know) about the Land Use / Transportation Connection - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Three Things (I think I know) about the Land Use / Transportation Connection. Jon D. Fricker 21 June 2007. “Urban Sprawl” Euclidean zoning Gasoline prices. Transportation and Land Use Issues. What the travel model says:.

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### Three Things (I think I know) about the Land Use / Transportation Connection

Jon D. Fricker

21 June 2007

Euclidean zoning

Gasoline prices

Transportation and Land Use Issues

3 Things ... LU/Tp

1. Changing Land Use patterns will affect the amount of travel (vehicle-miles traveled) – at least a little.

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What economic analysis says:

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3. A New Urbanist neighborhood design is not for everyone.

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LUs that fit travel behavior, rather than the opposite

Provide LUs that satisfy the most common trip making purposes.

1. Changing LU patterns

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A. LU Categories by trip frequency:

>1 trip/week, >1 trip/month, <1 trip/month:

• Grocery, Gas Station, School, et al.

B. Nr of each LU/100 HHs:

• Trip rates per 100 HH (NPTS and ITE) for each LU

• Average size of each LU

C. Scale up to 1 sq mi

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• 901.58 trips/week/1000 sq. ft. GFA in supermarket

• 1.327 trips/week/HH to supermarket

• Store area = (1.327/901.58)* 1000 *100 = 147 sq. ft./100 HHs

• Avg supermarket size 34K sq ft  0.004 supermarkets per 100 HH

• Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs

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• Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs total land area needed to serve 100 HHs

• Assumed HHs/acre  land needed

• Scale up to fill one square mile  “attractions” in REN

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TAZ size  one city block

Subarea analysis

VMT or Trip Length

1. REN travel model

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• Introducing non-residential LUs gives residents a choice of destinations that are closer.

• The resulting reductions in trip lengths are noticeable, but not dramatic, at the neighborhood level.

• The trip length reductions are barely noticeable at the system level.

3 Things ... LU/Tp

• How many retail establishments can a New Urbanist neighborhood support?

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Nhood area one sq mi

5(?) HHs/sq mi

Do “Market Analysis” (next two slides)

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An average household spends \$3000 a year on grocery-store related items.

• An average grocery store has sales of \$600,000 a year.

• Then, the number of grocery stores that can be supported by 100 HHs = \$3000 * 100 / (\$ 600,000) = 0.5 grocery stores

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• There are 1000 banks in a state with a population of 100,000 (i.e., 0.01 banks per person).

• The average income at the state level is \$12,000 a year.

• The average income at the county level is \$10,000 a year.

• Then, the number of banks that can be supported by 100 HHs = 0.01 * 100 * (\$10,000/ \$12,000) = 0.83 banks

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At “normal” urban densities for single-family dwellings (4-6 HH/acre), a one-square-mile neighborhood cannot support enough stores to cover even one edge.

• Density must be increased dramatically, probably by high-rise apartment buildings, or

• The “neighborhood” stores must rely on customers from other neighborhoods.

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• Two-part survey at a monthly meeting of a neighborhood association.

(1) Rate the desirability of twenty-four types of non-residential land uses if they were located within walking distance of your residence.

(2) Three hypothetical New Urbanist-like neighborhood revitalization case studies, differing by location and scale, were presented.

3 Things ... LU/Tp

• Churches were most preferred, while liquor stores were ranked lowest. (figure next page)

• Land uses visited frequently (e.g. grocery store or restaurant) rated higher than less-frequented ‘benign’ LUs, such as an insurance sales office.

• A positive relationship between the frequency of trips taken and the desirability of a particular land use within a neighborhood.

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Opposed proposed developments in center of neighborhood -- would increase traffic.

Development on perimeter acceptable, but few residents would not walk/bicycle to the proposed developments, despite their proximity.

3. Residents’ Opinions

• People would still go to more distant stores for longer hours, lower prices, greater variety.

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Not this: would increase traffic.

But this:

In other words, …

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Review of Results would increase traffic.

• Land use changes can help reduce VMT, but this is a long-term solution.

• High densities needed to support “frequent” LUs, but other LUs need a larger market shed.

• A minority like New Urbanist design now, but this market niche needs to be nurtured.

3 Things ... LU/Tp