BACKGROUND

1. The Center for Advanced Risk and Decision Analysis, CARDA, focuses on research and development of advanced analytical methods and decision support tools for risk assessment. Significant research efforts have been in support of the aviation safety domain. This research has been supported by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). With a team approach of professors, graduate and undergraduate research assistants, government personnel and industry experts, the CARDA seeks to identify and apply new and innovative methods to challenging risk assessment problems. The CARDA is seeking additional sponsors to further extend and expand its research beyond the aviation domain. For more information, please contact Dr. James T. Luxhøj, Director, CARDA, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ at jluxhoj@rci.rutgers.edu RESEARCH METHODOLOGY • The Aviation System Risk Model (ASRM) is equally a process and a product. The ASRM process combines three analytical modeling principal approaches: • Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), • Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs), • Case Studies • The ASRM product is a decision support tool, which is programmed in Visual Basic and integrated with HUGIN software, that aids in safety risk management for government and commercial sectors. • Note: Risk is a product of two elements, likelihood and severity. The HUGIN software evaluates the likelihood, while the ASRM integrates the severity and likelihood elements to illustrate the impact of the AvSP products. OBJECTIVE The purpose of this poster is to illustrate the application of the research methodology to a specified controlled-flight-into-terrain accident, Aloha IslandAir Inc., Flight 1712. Risk Intensity High Serious Medium Low APPLICATION OF A RISK-BASED DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR EVALUATING AVIATION TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATION TO A CONTROLLED-FLIGHT-INTO-TERRAIN ACCIDENTby Denise Marie Andres, M.S. Industrial and Systems Engineering BACKGROUND NASA in partnership with the FAA created the Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), which concentrates on the safety research and technology needs of the nation’s aviation system. Safety looks to avert unintentional life-threatening events, while safety research in the AvSP will develop prevention, intervention, and mitigation technologies and strategies aimed at one or more causal, contributory, or circumstantial factors associated with aviation accidents. High priority is given to strategies that address factors determined to be the largest contributors to accident and fatality rates, as well as those that address multiple classes of causal factors. The AvSP will also develop and integrate information technologies needed to build a safer aviation system, to support pilots and air traffic controllers, as well as provide information to assess situations and trends that might indicate unsafe conditions before they lead to accidents. CARDA has developed the Aviation System Risk Model (ASRM) to assist in the assessment of a portfolio of 48 technologies and/or interventions. The ASRM is being used by the NASA Langley Research Center to provide projected relative risk reductions of the impact of new products. APPLICATION OF ANALYTICAL MODELING APPROACH TO ALOHA ISLANDAIR INC., FLIGHT 1712 Describe Case-Based Scenario Using National Transportation Safety Board Accident Report Identify Pre-cursors and Causal Factors Using HFACS Taxonomy Construct Influence Diagram Quantify Bayesian Belief Network Utilize the ASRM to Asses the Risk and Relative Risk Reductions RESULTS from The ASRM Implement and Integrate Candidate AvSP Products CONCLUSIONS • The implementation of the Synthetic Vision Systems products to the ‘physical fatigue’, ‘adverse mental state’, and ‘decision errors’, experienced by the pilot, revealed the largest relative risk reduction (35%) for a single AvSP product suite. • Through Bayesian Probability theory, the ASRM decision support tool illustrates how the complex interactions of accident causal factors may be portrayed. • The ASRM tool enables sensitivity analysis for single and multiple product implementations. It is possible that an AvSP product or multiple products can impact a single casual factor or multiple casual factors. • The ASRM process allows for the representation of the dynamic behavior of air transport systems, the existence of sequence dependencies, the complexities and uncertainties associated with human factors and organizational behavior, and the ability to integrate expert judgment and hard data into the model building stage.