Leggo My Logos!

1. Leggo My Logos! A Guide to the Use and Misuse of Facts and Reason

2. “The question of proof is problematical since proof needs to be proven.” • Jean-Francois Lyotard “I’m from the hood, stupid, what type of facts are those?” - Jay Z Leggo My Logos!

3. Facts Can Be Tricky • Originally, the Greek word logos signified simply “word,” then “speech” and eventually “writing.” [Isocrates] Over time, the word came to mean “thought.” [Plato] This transformation is important, because it suggests that for Plato, though can exist independent of words, speech, and writing. • Much of rhetorical theory, like Isocrates, contends against this Platonic disposition toward truth by highlighting how complicated communicating truth can be. For Plato, truth should be a simple matter of direct, universal, logical exposition; for Isocrates, such exposition is always taking place in specific moments, with diverse people, amidst a number of factors that can influence perception, transmission, and reception. It isn’t that Isocrates, or rhetoricians, don’t value truth—rather it is that they recognize that communicating truth is much harder than philosophers such as Plato want to acknowledge. • This presentation seeks to support Isocrates’s position by exploring how problematic seemingly incontrovertible evidence can be.

4. Facts Can Be Tricky • Facts are often a question of definition, authority, and societal agreement. • Even basic facts are often up for debate. • Example: • Question: How many planets are in our solar system?

5. Facts Can Be Tricky • Answer: 8, 9, or 10. • Traditionally, the popular answer is that there are 9 planets in the solar system. • However, some scientists insist that Pluto is too small to be classified a planet and should be labeled as a “Kuiper Belt object “ instead. • The recent discovery of 2003UB313 beyond Pluto has thrown this question into even more debate. 2003UB313 is larger than Pluto but not as large as Neptune. Should both of these objects be called planets? Just one? Or neither of them? • Even after a popular answer is settled, there is bound to be debate within the scientific community.

6. Facts Can Get Trickier… • Not only can careful observation be a problem, but sometimes the very act of observing changes what we are looking at! • For instance, as Toby Howard reports, “Quantum mechanics says that the very act of measuring an atom's state changes that state. And the more accurate you try to make your measurement, the more you disrupt the atom.” (Personal Computer World)

7. Perception Can Be Tricky • Humans interpret numbers contextually. • In their book Nudge, Richard H. Thaler and Cass Sunstein argue that bias is an unavoidable dimension of human perception.

8. Perception Can Be Tricky • Thaler and Sunstein draw upon Roger N. Shepard’s (in)famoustable tops:

9. Estimation can be Tricky Additionally, Thaler and Sunstein argue that all humans rely on what they call the “rule of thumb.” On a piece of paper, jot down how many people you believe live in Portland, Oregon.

10. Estimation can be Tricky Thaler and Sunsteinexplain that, statistically, the size of the town/city in which you live will influence the number you pick. If you are from a large city (such as New York, Chicago, or Los Angeles), then you will likely guess higher. If you are from a small town, then you will likely guess lower.

11. Estimation can be Tricky Since many of you are from Tampa, I expect this “trick” might not work, since the population of Tampa (340,882) and Oregon (575, 930) are nearly equivalent. Sociologists and psychologist refer to this kind of phenomenon as anchoring. As writers, whenever you use a statistic, you want to be sure to provide your readers with an anchor or comparative reference point.

12. Making Numbers Matter Numbers don’t really signify anything until we invest them with meaning. Sports fans will recognize this operating in a few conversations: who is a better quarterback, Peyton Manning or Johnny Unitas? Who is the greatest hitter of all-time, Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds? Who is the greatest basketball dynasty of all-time, the 60’s Celtics or the 90’s Bulls?

13. Making Numbers Matter Manning has won more games, thrown for more yards, and scored more touchdowns. Unitas played in an era with fewer scheduled games, more run-oriented offenses, and called his own plays. Ruth’s numbers were dominantly superior to almost anyone else in his era and played in larger stadiums. Bonds played in an era in which pitchers were stronger, better trained, and threw preposterously more breaking pitches (due in large part to the development of professional bullpens). The Celtics won 10 championships in 11 years. The Bulls played in an era with more teams, much more talent, free agency, and a restrictive salary cap. What these examples show is that numbers need to be contextualized.

14. Facts can be tricky • In his talk, “A REALLY Inconvenient Truth,” environmental scientist Dan Miller refers to Mark Lynas’ book Six Degrees. (Around 11:00 minutes in) • Part of Miller’s rhetorical effectiveness is that he recognizes that a general audience doesn’t have the referential frames to process or appreciate the impact of a “raw” or specialized number.

15. Making Numbers Friendly • To provide his numbers weight, he uses an extended metaphor. Metaphors offer incredible power, but also come with certain risks. • However, we should also be skeptical to some of Miller’s images: when were those pictures of the ice-caps taken? Do the ice-caps melt and re-freeze naturally every year? • Good writers will use metaphors sparingly and hesitantly to provide an audience with a frame of reference. • Good readers read with a skeptical awareness; bad readers read with an oppositional determinism.

16. Facts can be tricky • In the same way, other factual pieces of evidence, even when accurate, may present problems. • Sometimes graphics, surveys, and other factual evidence may gloss over complexities. • Like statistics, other factual evidence can be used to support contradictory claims.

17. Example: (a.k.a. Fun w/ Maps!) • How close was the 2004 Presidential election? • Many Republicans claimed a thorough victory. • Many Democrats claimed it was one of the closet elections in US history. • Lets look at the maps.

18. Facts Can Be Tricky Example: This map reflects the electoral votes from 2004, and it reflects a red-state blue-state divide.

19. Facts Can Be Tricky However, when the county by county results are examined, a different story emerges.

20. Facts Can Be Tricky This map indicates the percentage of each county votes.

21. Facts Can Get Trickier… • Regardless of which map we deem “more accurate,” all three maps present a deceptive proportionality—it preconceives that each inch of America has the same amount of people. • What happens if we re-conceptualize America as a cartogram according to voter turnout?

22. Fun with Maps • Then we get something like this:

23. More Fun with Maps • Or, if we go county by county, we get this:

24. Even More Fun With Maps • Then there’s this:

25. Last Map… Maybe… • If we go truly three dimensional (according to voter turnout), then we get this:

26. Same Map, Different View! • If we view the same map from a more overhead view, we get:

27. Which is the True Map?

28. That Depends! • All of these maps are “true”—what differs is their scale—the criteria used to generate its colors and proportions. • When we look at any kind of statistical data, we should recognize that the compilers have made a number of choices! • No data can include all possibilities!

29. Logic Can Be Tricky • Often, statements which sound logical are riddled with problems. • Logic can establish a closed system which ignores critical information • Logic can run into problems when it ignores context.

30. Logic Can Be Tricky • Often, statements which sound logical are riddled with problems. • Logic can establish a closed system which ignores critical information • Logic can run into problems when it ignores context.

31. Logic Can Be Tricky • Two famous examples of logic gone awry come from Zeno’s paradoxes: • The Dichotomy: Motion cannot exist because before that which is in motion can reach its destination, it must reach the midpoint of its course, but before it can reach the middle, it must reach the quarterpoint, but before it reaches the quarterpoint, it first must reach the eigthpoint, etc. Hence, motion can never start.

32. Logic Can Be Tricky • Paradox #2: • The Achilles: The running Achilles can never catch a crawling tortoise ahead of him because he must first reach where the tortoise started. However, when he reaches there, the tortoise has moved ahead, and Achilles must now run to the new position, which by the time he reaches the tortoise has moved ahead, etc. Hence the tortoise will always be ahead. Paradoxes from: http://www.shu.edu/html/teaching/math/reals/history/zeno.html

33. Logic Can Be Tricky • Every syllogism depends on a preliminary claim or claims outside of logic. • These claims are called first principles. • Different first principles will lead to varied conclusions, many of which can be logical.

34. Logic Can Be Tricky • Example: • The government should not help those who cannot contribute to society. • Welfare gives free aid to those who do not contribute to society. • Therefore, the US government should not provide welfare.

35. Logic Can Be Tricky • Example: • The government should help those who can’t help themselves. • Welfare provides help to those who can’t help themselves. • Therefore, the government should provide welfare assistance.

36. Language Can Be Tricky • Often, rhetorical effectiveness can be tied to (mis)-appropriation of language or “code” switching. • Example: Creationist arguments that attack the “theory” of evolution. • Intellectuals on both sides of the evolutionist (Clive Thompson) / creationist (David Menton) divide have debunked this line or argument.

37. Language Can Be Tricky • In everyday language, “theory” signifies “unproven,” “guess,” “idea,” or “possibility.” • Thompson and Menton, though they disagree on important points, recognize that theory has a very precise meaning in scientific discourse: to earn the title “theory” in science is to rise to an incontrovertible point of consensus based on all available empirical evidence. • Thus, the validity of conclusions is often tied to the accuracy and integrity of terms.

38. Logic Can Be Tricky • Usually, when an argument is about facts, it is also about the values behind the facts, because people will react to facts differently based on the values they hold. • Incorporating facts into an argument is only part of a larger effort of persuasion.

39. Thinking can be Tricky In Mind Wide Open, writer Steven Johnson explores the connections between brain, body, and conscious awareness, noting that both our brain and body “think” in ways “I” (consciousness) is unaware. He calls these neurobiofeedback loops. “At any given moment, so much data about the external world enters your brain through your sensory channels that the key proficiency of consciousness is not the ability to perceive the external world but rather the ability to shut so much of it out.”

40. Making Numbers Matter Writing exacerbates the selective attention germane to consciousness, often to a problematic degree. Good writers are able to recreate much of the surrounding references necessary to provide meaning, without overwhelming us. Don’t expect an audience to accept a fact or a number; presume that they will always be skeptical, work to make your case.