Presentation Transcript

1. Looking for extreme events in Switzerland:What role for risk analysis in critical infrastructure protection? ETH Risk Center Workshop Swiss Re, October 26, 2012 Dr. Stefan Brem stefan.brem[at]babs.admin.ch Head Risk Analysis and Research CoordinationFederal Office forCivil Protection FOCP Fed. Department ofDefence, Civil Protection and Sport
2. Looking for extreme events in … Chile, 2010 Basel, 1356 Katarisk, 2003
3. Katarisk: Methodology Risk analysis ➊ ➋ Statistics ofincidents Description of scenarios Comparative overview Check of plausibility using statistics ➍ ➌ Calculation of statistical damage values Plotting of cumulative frequency curves Risk valuation ➎ Monetary terms of statistical damage values (marginal costs) ➏ Weighting by consideration of aversion against large-scale incidents
4. Agenda Concept of Critical InfrastructureProtection (CIP) in Switzerland Swiss CIP Programme National CIP Strategy Identification of CI Objects Risk Assessment and CIP Conclusion and Discussion
5. RISK CIP concept in Switzerland Preventingbreakdowns PREVENTION NATURAL HAZARDS PREPARATION THREAT SPECTRUM MEARSURE SPECTRUM TECHNICAL HAZARDS INTERVENTION RISK RECONDITION SOCIETAL HAZARDS RECON-STRUCTION Reducingdamages
6. CIP Programme in Switzerland Mandate by the Federal Council Implementation of the national CIP strategy 2012 Role of the Federal Office for Civil Protection Chairing the CIP Working Group Coordination of the activities basedon the national strategy Aim and purpose of the CIP Programme Development of uniform approach Creation of joint basic documents Facilitation of dialogue and collaboration Protection of the population and its livelihood (Art. 2, CPCD Law)
7. National CIP Strategy 2012 StrategicGoal Basic Principles Comprehensive risk-based approach Proportionality Responsibility of the actors Public-private partnership The national CP strategy aims at improving the resiliency of critical infrastructures in Switzerland. It ensures a coordinated and unified approach of all actors involved.
8. Measures of the National CIP Strategy Improve the general framework of the cross-sectoral collaboration Improve the CI’s resiliency Key points of the strategy Identification and compilation of CI objects (CI-Inventory) Establishment of cross-sectoral platforms Improving information exchange (incl. early warning) Handling of CI failures (federal support) CIP as a permanent process (inventory, comprehensive protection concepts, risk dialogue, etc.)
9. Inventory of Critical Infrastructure Objects Failure of a nationalcritical infrastructure Failure of a regionalcritical infrastructure Aim: Inventory of Swiss Critical Infrastructure objects Contribution to the provision of important goods and services and / or hazard potential Purpose: Basis for planning and prioritisation in risk and disaster management Confederation, Cantons, CI operators CI Inventory replaces Catalogue to Ensure Basic Needs (previously operated by the military) Extension in terms of CI sectors, operators, threat and measure spectrum Identification of CI objects uses standardised process Method elaborated and approved by CIP WG Committees of relevant actors on national level
10. Prioritisation process Creation of a function structure Determination of relevant object groups Definition of threshold levels Compilation and evaluation of CI objects a) Output potential b) Hazard potential Completion with cantonal objects  Swiss approach is similar / compatible with the EU approach Focus lies on national importance ratherthan on cross-border effects CIP Inventory considers international aspects In every CI subsector
11. Database CI Inventory and Object Files Dummy version
12. Risk Assessment and CIPObjectives and purpose Multi- (integrated) risk analysis to prioritise hazards (country risk assessment) Integrate know-how to increase risk awareness (e.g. dependencies/cascades) Elaborate foundations for further analyses, (preparedness) planning, training and information
13. Methodology to assess the hazards Risk = Impact x Frequency/Probability Impact (damage) is described by 13 indicators Assessment based on the scenario of the risk files Expert-Delphi (workshops) Freq/Probab Expert groups Assessment Aggregation of Impact Impact Indicators of thedamage Marginal costs
14. Workshops Proof of concept, December 2011 Validation of methodology with a sample of risk files (inter alia earthquake, drought, power blackout, animal disease) Participants primarily with methodological expertise (academia, insurance, federal, cantonal and communal authorities, etc.) Assessment workshops of the scenarios 13 workshops between May and August 2012 Participants depending on the hazard from federal, cantonal and communal authorities (intel, police, health, etc.), academia, CI operators (energy, transportation, IT, finance, etc.), etc. Validation by (re)insurance representatives In total, some 70 experts involved in assessment
15. Risk files and scenario Systematic structure of the risk files Definition / general info Similar incidents Driving factors Dependencies Scenario Description Impacts Legal foundation and references Scenario as reference for the assessment of impact and likelihood. Scenario in risk file is one of many possible scenarios(serious / major / extreme). Scenario is no prediction / forecast. Scenarios help to anticipate possible impacts to get better prepared. Risk files
16. Selectedhazardsforassessment in 2012 Attack with dirty bomb Attack with sarin Accident in a chemical plant Drought Mass migration of refugees (Kosovo 1999) Cyber attack Power blackout Animal disease Road accident with dangerous goods Storm, inland flooding, earthquake Pandemic Additional 6 workshops in the context of the revision of the national CBRN and natural hazard reference scenarios
17. To assessthedamage: 13 indicators Description of consequences is based on the Swiss Federal Constitution:
18. Estimation of Likelihood / Probability/ Frequency ≈ ≈
19. Selection of firstresults: Naturalhazards Earthquake Inland Flooding
20. Selection of first results: technical and societal hazards Power blackout Pandemic
21. Comparative Analysis Figure: ExemplaryRiskmatrix
22. Available products (so far in German only...)
23. Conclusionandoutlook Increasing importance of CIP The aim is not absolute security, but optimized security However, extreme events should be consideredin the preparedness and continuity planning Value added of comprehensive approach Resources are increasingly scarce Prioritisation necessary Consideration of residual risk (extreme events!) Cross-sector cooperation and coordination become more and more important Cross-country cooperation and coordination as well
24. Contact information Dr. Stefan Brem Head of Risk Analysis and Research Coordination Federal Office for Civil Protection Monbijoustrasse 51A, 3003 Bern Tel +41 31 322 51 37 Fax +41 31 324 87 89 stefan.brem[at]babs.admin.ch www.civilprotection.ch Risks Switzerland: www.risk-ch.ch KATAPLAN: www.kataplan.ch CIP: www.infraprotection.ch