Creating a nutritious home for all

1. Creating a nutritious home for all

2. THE FOOD CRISES: BACKGROUND & THE WAY FORWARD Dirk Troskie Specialist: Agricultural Economics Western Cape Dept. of Agriculture

8. % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT REPORTS CHILDREN GOING HUNGRY DURING THE PAST YEAR

9. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION

10. AGRICULTURAL GDP PER PERSON IN AGRICULTURE (2004)

11. TRANSFERS / CAPITA (Constant 2000 Rand) Source: vd Berg (2007) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

12. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. • Government interventions play a major role in this regard. THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION

13. FOOD PRODUCTION & POPULATION GROWTH Source: Abstract (2008) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

14. GROWTH OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1994 – 2004)

15. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. • Government interventions play a major role in this regard. • Food production keep track with population growth. THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION

16. AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS & EXPORTS(Nominal values) Source: Abstract (2008) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

17. EXPORTS OF WINE Source: SAWIS (2008) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

18. WESTERN CAPE EXPORTS2001 - 2003 Source: Quantec (2008) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

19. CONCENTRATION RATIO OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS (2002 – 2004)

20. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. • Government interventions play a major role in this regard. • Food production keep track with population growth. • SA shows growth in the net value of exports THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION

21. NET TRADE IN FOOD (2002 – 2004)

22. SHARE OF FOOD IN TOTAL IMPORTS (2002 – 2004)

23. SHARE OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN TOTAL EXPORTS (2002 – 2004)

24. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. • Government interventions play a major role in this regard. • Food production keep track with population growth. • SA shows growth in the net value of exports • Yet, SA is a deficit exporter of calories THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION

25. FAPRI % BFAP BASELINE PRICES:Wheat & Barley Source: BFAP (2007) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

26. BIOFUELS IN THE US Source: OECD/FAO Outlook (2007) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

27. ANIMAL PRODUCTSIndex of nominal prices Source: OECD/FAO Outlook (2007) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

28. PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF MEAT Source: OECD/FAO Outlook (2007) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

29. WORLD CLOSING STOCKS Source: OECD/FAO Outlook (2007) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

30. WORLD POPULATION Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

31. POPULATION ON CONTINENTS Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

32. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. • Government interventions play a major role in this regard. • Food production keep track with population growth. • SA shows growth in the net value of exports • Yet, SA is a deficit exporter of calories • We are experiencing a trend-break THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION

33. IMPACT ON THE MOST VULNERABLE: LSM1(Inflation = 6%; Food Inflation = 12%) Source: Own Calculations based on LSM Data (2007) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

34. % HH EXPENDITURE ON FOOD Source: Troskie (2001) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

35. RURAL POPULATION IN TOTAL POPULATION (2004)

36. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. • Government interventions play a major role in this regard. • Food production keep track with population growth. • SA shows growth in the net value of exports • Yet, SA is a deficit exporter of calories • We are experiencing a trend-break • We need to protect the most vulnerable • Certain countries are preventing exports: • Impact on WTO negotiations • Export instability THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION

37. THE WAY FORWARD

38. UN DECLARATION • Feed the hungry • Food aid • Food for Tomorrow • Income generation programmes • Address research & knowledge gaps • Scale down trade distorting subsidies • Special focus on Africa Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

39. PROPOSED WESTERN CAPE DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE RESPONSE • Feed the hungry • Food gardens • Food stamps • Consumer subsidies (BIG) • Emergency feeding schemes • Food from research farms • Food for Tomorrow • Research • Extension • Training Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

40. COMMERCIAL VEGETABLEPRODUCTION Source: Combud & own calculations (2008) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

41. SCENARIO 1 Cost of buying 468 tons of veg. at Epping: R 905 465 Source: Own calculations (2008) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

42. SCENARIO 2 Cost of buying 624 tons of veg. at Epping: R 1 207 287 Source: Own calculations (2008) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

43. THE NATURE OF TECHNOLOGY Preferred characteristic Time/Research input Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

44. RATE OF RETURN ON WHEAT RESEARCH Source: Troskie (2001) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

45. RESEARCH: IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT Source: Provide (2005) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

46. PRICE ELASTICITY Source: Bonnen & Schweikhardt (1998) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

47. the end

48. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. • Government interventions play a major role in this regard. • Food production keep track with population growth. • SA shows growth in the net value of exports • Yet, SA is a deficit exporter of calories • We are experiencing a trend-break • We need to protect the most vulnerable • Certain countries are preventing exports: • Impact on WTO negotiations • Export instability THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION