From door-knocking to tweets How do candidates campaign in modern local elections ?

1. From door-knocking to tweetsHow do candidates campaign in modern local elections? Michael Turner The Elections Centre, Plymouth University 2013

2. The Idea. An informative guide to modern local campaigning

3. Local Campaigning The idea… PhD thesis on incumbency effects in local elections. Findings suggested that Incumbent candidates more successful because they were better campaigners. A premise emerged that there are distinct behavioural differences between types of candidate, leading to further questions on whether these behaviours lead to, or at least aid electoral success? As there are the means to investigate it, the broad aim of the project is to utilise the accumulating survey data, compiled by The Elections Centre, to shed further light on the modes of campaigning frequently used by candidates for local government eventually enabling us to assess their effectiveness.

4. Local Campaigning Existing literature on mobilisation in the US… Gerber & Green (2000a) An experimental study showed that nonpartisan leafleting was able to mobilise voters by an estimated 7% Gerber & Green (2000b) Compared relative effects of different means of GOTV canvassing, direct mail, telephone and door-to-door canvassing. Telephoning had mixed results, direct mail had a slight effect and door-to-door canvassing was shown to have the most influence on turnout. Clear indication that face-to-face methods have an impact Green et al (2003) Confirms earlier work but quantifies door-to-door canvassing efforts by suggesting that one in every twelve voters contacted translated into an additional vote on polling day. Qualifications included the racial and age reflective selection of canvassers to the neighbourhood demographic and canvassers travelling in pairs. Though the cost per vote estimations are comparably cheaper than phone bank methods and direct mail, they are still eye-wateringly high within a British context of elections spending at $15 (£10) per vote.

5. Local Campaigning Existing literature on local campaigning in Britain… Bochel & Denver (1972) Showed the effect of canvassing and polling-day activity on the results of local government elections. Canvassing before polling day and ‘knocking up’ on the day increased turnout Denver & Hands (1992) Only the best organised campaigns are able to carry out an effective canvassing exercise smoothly Whiteley & Seyd (1994) Provide evidence of to suggest that local campaign activism has a positive effect on electoral outcome. Using survey data from Labour party members combined with elections results, the paper finds that increased campaign activities from local party members, such as putting up posters, delivering campaign leaflets and canvassing for voters, had a positive effect on electoral outcome

6. Local Campaigning Though national issues often permeate Local Government campaigns, campaigns for Local Government are distinct from local Parliamentary ones. Meagre budgets (Electoral Commission, Wilson & Game 2006) Less man-power Less salient issues A distinct and more militant set of voters (Rallings & Thrasher 1998, 2005)

7. Local Campaigning The up-sum from existing research… • There is little evidence in the public domain on the campaigning practices and intensity of candidates for local government • The mode and intensity of campaigning methods can have a meaningful impact on the participation and behaviour of voters in elections. Leafleting and canvassing are of particular significance, but methods that include some form of face-to-face contact with voters also • Effective organisation of is a key part of these processes, not only in terms of managing canvassers on the ground, but also understanding information about the people being canvassed. (i.e. obtaining accurate information about household voting history e.g. Denver & Hands’ updating of voter lists) • Due to the situation in British local elections where the means of campaigning are restricted, understanding the frequent practices of candidates, particularly online, could be an important indication of the direction of future campaigning methods

8. Objective There are three main objectives from this paper clearly defined: • Quantify the traditional methods candidates use during local electoral campaigns • Quantify the online methods candidates use during local electoral campaigns • Identify any key differences between the parties and different types of candidate

9. Data & Methods Surveys, respondents, datasets & key variables

10. The Data • Annual Candidate Survey 2006-2013 • Partial merge of surveys on key variables • Minor information on electoral history • Some detailed information on campaign behaviour • Some information on candidate’s personal background • 2013 survey offers more detailed questions on Online campaigning

11. The Data • Major set used for most of the analysis and forms as an exploratory tool • All major set has been weighted to reflect the electoral make-up of respective years within the survey, by local authority

12. Survey Respondents 10,491

13. Survey Respondents First Time Candidates Incumbent Councillors Former Councillors Serial Candidates Unidentified

14. Success Rate First Time Candidates Incumbent Councillors Former Councillors Serial Candidates

15. Campaigning intensity. Hours a week during the campaign

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19. How do candidates spend their time campaigning? Method allocations & traditional means

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28. Leafleting. Information, delivery & help

29. The Data

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38. Did you have any help delivering leaflets? Most do. UKIP slightly less.

39. Door-canvassing Activity, intensity & success

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43. Campaigning Online. Tweets, Facebook, Websites & Email

45. 55.7 Avg. Age 55.9 56.3 59.5 52.8 59.8 55.2

49. Discussion. The efficacy of local election campaign methods & further research

50. Discussion • The data gives a good picture of they methods and intensity of local government campaigning in Britain • Candidates campaign for between 10 and 35 hours a week depending on the party and their electoral status • Leafleting accounts for the majority of time for all candidates and parties