Policies to Reduce Climate Change Impacts

1. Policies to Reduce Climate Change Impacts Jan P r e t e l Czech Hydrometeorological Institute Department of Climate Change 11th ILA Congress Prague 2006 Prague, 21.5.2006

2. Main topics • Overview • Climate system • GHG concentrations & emissions • Observed & projected climate changes • Indicators of climate change • Impacts & vulnerabilities • Mitigation – emissions for Kyoto protocol • EU future climate change strategy • Mitigation & Adaptation - reasons to start now • Conclusions

3. Climate system Highly complex system consisting of • atmosphere • hydrosphere • cryosphere • land surface • biosphere Greenhouse effect • natural (water vapour, CO2 – keeps Earth some 33°C warmer) • anthropogenic (CO2, CH4, N2O, PFC, HFC, SF6 – additional warming) • influence on energy balance

4. Indicators of climatechange • temperaturerise 0.6 ± 0.2°C in the past century (accelerated during the past two/three decades) • the warmest year in NH = 1998, followed by 2005, 2002, 2003 and 2004 • temperature increase in the 20th century is largest during the past 1000 years • 10% decrease of snow cover since late 1960s • mountain glaciers retreat in non-polar regions • 40 % decline in Artic sea-ice thickness(late summer to early autumn) • sea level rise by 0.1-0.2 m • extreme weather events increase (heavy precipitation, droughts, storms, tornados, hurricanes, etc.) Significant part of the warming is attributed to human activities

5. GHG concentrations & emissions Over 150 years agoGHG concentrations have increased CO2 by 34%, CH4 by 154%, N2O by 17%, F-gases completely new • have a long lifetime in the atmosphere  accumulate over time • are well mixed in the atmosphere  their impact on the atmosphere is mostly independent of where they were emitted • have to be addressed on a global scale

6. Projected CO2 concentrations & reasons for concern Even with the best-case scenario (with a lot of regulations and incentives by governments) when the CO2 emissions will decrease, the temperature will still go up and the sea level will still rise • temperature increase by 2.0 – 6.4oC • sea-level rise by 10 – 90 cm • increase of precipitation in N, decrease in S • decrease of snow cover and sea-ice • weakening of thermohaline circulation • increase of extreme weather events

7. Impacts of climate change • beneficial and adverse environmental and socio-economic effects • the larger the changes and rate of change in climate, the more the adverse effects • vulnerability of systems • degree to which a system is susceptible to (or unable to cope with) adverse effects of climate change, incl. climate variability and extremes • function of character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation, sensitivity and adaptive capacity • reduction of vulnerabilities and impacts • mitigation (anthropogenic intervention to reduce GHG emissions or enhance sinks) • adaptation (adjustment in natural and human system in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects

8. Emission trends

9. Emissions for Kyoto Protocol

10. Mitigation approach (today)

11. EU future climate change strategy • broadening of participation • leadership role in the multilateral approach to climate change • wider participation on the basis of common but differentiated responsibilities • consistency with other important objectives (e.g. poverty reduction) • negotiating strategy • inclusion of more policy areas • aviation and maritime transport • deforestation of the world’s forests • enhanced innovation • transformation of energy and transport systems • use of market based and flexible instruments • inclusion of adaptation policies

12. Mitigation approach (future) EU Council of Ministers 2005 („Winning the Battle Against Global Climate Change“) • global average temperatures should not exceed 2 ºC above pre-industrial level • CO2 eq. level = 550 ppmv (1/6 chance) • CO2 eq. level = 650 ppmv (1/16 chance) needs for significant global emissioncut - CO2 eq. level = 400 ppmv • analysis of the costs and benefits • all sectors and GHGs are included • include all major countries • emissions trading and project based mechanisms are fully used • synergies with other policies fully exploited (e.g. Lisbon Strategy, energy security policy, Common Agricultural Policy reform , cohesion policy, and air quality policies, etc.)

13. Adaptation approach (future) • anticipatory • before impacts are observed • reactive • after impacts have been observed • autonomous • ecological changes in natural systems • planned • result of deliberate policy decisions • private • by individuals as rational self-interest • public • by governments at all levels Adaptive capacity potential or ability of system, region, or community to adapt to the effects or impacts of climate change (varies among countries, socio-economic group, time, etc.)

14. Reasons to start now • climate change in the future may be more rapid than current projections suggest • anticipatory adaptation is more effective and less costly than „last-minute“ or „emergency“ adaptation • adaptation process will require further research to predict the impacts at regional level in order to develop cost-effective adaptation options • immediate benefits can be gained • from proactiveadaptation to climate variability and extreme atmospheric events • by removing maladaptive policies and practices

15. Conclusions • Climate change is reality for the 21st century and human effect on climate system cannot be neglected • Natural and anthropogenic reasons • still difficult to differentiate both roles • Dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate system varies among regions depending on • local nature • consequences of climate change, and • adaptive capacity • Mitigation and adaptation measures • Adaptations • reduces exposure to climate risks • still playing relatively minor role in climate policy at the international, regional and national levels • Adaptation and mitigation needs to be equable part of integrated climate policy