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14. 1 . FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page date: 7 August 2012. Title : Advancing GOES Cloud and Surface Irradiance Products for Applications to Short Term Solar Energy Forecasting Status : Renewal Duration : Total of 2 years Project Leads:
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Title: Advancing GOES Cloud and Surface Irradiance Products for Applications to Short Term Solar Energy Forecasting
Duration: Total of 2 years
Dr. Steven Miller, CSU/CIRA, (Steven.Miller@colostate.edu)
Dr. Matt Rogers, CSU/CIRA, (Matthew.Rogers@colostate.edu)
Dr. Andrew Heidinger, NOAA/NESDIS-STAR
Dr. Istvan Laszlo, NOAA/NESDIS-STAR
Dr. Stan Benjamin, NOAA/OAR-ESRL
Dr. Manajit Sengupta, NREL
Prof. Jan Kleissl, UC San Diego
Mr. J. Adam Kankiewicz, WindLogics
Fusion of GOES-derived cloud and surface irradiance products and NOAA NWP to advance short-term (0-3 hr) solar energy prediction:
Physically-based cloud property retrievals, project cloud shadows into the future, account for Sun/satellite geometry
Predict time series of surface irradiance at selected locations
Validate against nationally-distributed NOAA SURFaceRADiation (SURFRAD) network
Evaluate performance against NWP-based short-term forecasts (emphasizing the High Resolution Rapid Refresh [HRRR] model)
CSU Station Observations
GOES-11: Predicted Cloud Movement
Observed ‘ramp’ in solar energy at CSU Station occurred during a break between two convective clouds…
High Clouds Mid-Troposphere Low Clouds
Cloud Top Pressure (mb)
Cloud dissociation arises from speed and directional shear in the 3D model wind field.
19 Jan 2012 1800-1900 UTC
Short-term forecast of clouds crossing Sioux Falls (cloud optical depth shown at GOES pixel centers)
SURFAD observations at Sioux Falls, showing details of the associated ramp around 18 UTC
Automating this processing will allow for statistical analysis of forecast system performance.
Cloud Grouping Logic:
Group Color Code
The new grouping logic will be tested against pixel-level advection at SURFRAD stations to gauge impact.