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Understanding and Adapting to Altered Energy and Mass Inputs to Freshwater Ecosystems : A Pan-American Pilot Study of Ecosystem Service Risk Assessment and Mitigation.

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  1. Understanding and Adapting to AlteredEnergy and Mass Inputs to FreshwaterEcosystems: A Pan-American PilotStudy of EcosystemServiceRiskAssessment and Mitigation T.C. Harmon, D. Conde, J. Rusak, G.M. Perillo, M.I. Velez Caicedo, J.H. Escobar Jaramillo, M.C. Piccolo, B. Reid, and S. London SAFER http://safer-iai.org/

  2. Presentationoutline: • The SAFER Project • Introduction: current SAFER study sites • Approach to ecosystem services risk assessment • Characterizing domain encompassing watershed • Energy-mass flux basis, integrating paleo-information • Risk and risk perception analysis (stakeholders) • Progress:  selection of key ES and pressures for further study • Next steps SAFER http://safer-iai.org/

  3. SAFER: SensingtheAmericas’ FreshwaterEcosystemRisk… • To employ freshwater ecosystems as “sensors” of climate variability and watershed processes • Investigate ecosystem interactions with other multiple stressors and assess risks to ecosystem services in the Americas • To determine management and mitigation strategies which are both feasible and culturally acceptable. • Integration of the stakeholders and decision makers into the learning arena • Expand supporting research capacity in the Americas

  4. SAFER: SensingtheAmericas’ FreshwaterEcosystemRisk Muskoka River Watershed Ontario, Canada Lower San Joaquin River California, U.S.A. Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta Magdalena, Colombia Laguna de Rocha Rocha, Uruguay La Paloma Lake Complex Coyhaique, Chile Río Senguerr Chubut, Argentina Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification Map from M.C. Peel, U Melbourne

  5. Overall SAFER approach Forcing climatic factors Biodiversity & water quality Socio/Econ/Cult state Social perception AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Prediction of impacts on Risk & Perception ecosystem Analysis Climatic projections Economic & land use scenarios Climate, Limnological & Ecological history Socio/Econ/Cult history Paleo- Human PRESENT FUTURE record Occupation (2100) 6 sites (+ more…)

  6. SAFER sites • Río SenguerrBasin, Argentina • Andes to Pampas gradient • Wet to Semi-arid • Changingrunoffregime • Streams, lakes, reservoirs • Agriculture, oilrecovery, sportsfishing • Lower San JoaquinRiver, USA • Central Valley • Semi-arid, snowpackdependent • Changingrunoffregime • Rivers and reservoirs • Agriculture, hydropower, salmonrestoration Water Sustainability & Climate

  7. SAFER sites (continued) • La Cienaga Granda de Santa Marta (Colombia) • Wetland and coastallagoon • Tropical to coolerhighlands • Sea level/surge and salinityissues • Agriculture, artisanalfishery, drinkingwater-wastewater • Laguna de Rocha (Uruguay) • Wetland and coastallagoon • Humid subtropical • Sea level/surge and salinityissues • Drinkingwater-wastewater, nutrientregulation, artisanalfishery

  8. SAFER sites (continued) • MuskokaRiverWatershed, Ontario, Canada • Lake-cottagesetting • Humid continental • Changinghydrograph • Land use-waterclarity • La Paloma Lake Complex, Coyhaique, Chile • Lowpopulationdensity • Oceanicclimate • Glacier reduction, changinghydrograph • Drinkingwater, grazingpressure, invasivealgae and sport fishing

  9. Proposed Approach • Gather data on sites • Energy-mass (E-m) approach • Past (paleo-environmental, human history) • Inventory ecosystem services, and links between pressures, ecosystems, ecosystem services and stakeholders • Prioritize ecosystem services • Risk and perception • (Meta-)analysis of different biophysical, socioeconomic and cultural settings

  10. Overall approach schematically: Lozoya et al. (2014) in press

  11. 1. SiteCharacterization: E-m (Energy flux, masstransport) • Freshwater ecosystems respond to direct and indirect transfers of energy (E) and mass (m) • Climate-driven or anthropogenic • 2 advantages to E-m approach: • Couples naturally with process models (hydroclimate, water quality) • Emphasizes inclusion of the paleo-record Leavitt et al. (2009) Limnol. Oceanogr.

  12. 1. Site Characterization: E-m approach • Tier 1 models* are first-approximation models (usually simple indices) • Climate: e.g., water scarcity index, etc. • Socioeconomic: e.g., “potential tourism” index • Tier 2 models are simulate distributed processes and mechanisms in physical, ecological and socioeconomic systems. • Climate: distributed parameter hydrologic model (e.g., SWAT, WEAP) • Socioeconomic: model of annual visitors/dollars based on environmental attributes, etc. *Tier 1 and Tier 2 based on the Natural Capital Project’s InVESTModel terminology (http://www.naturalcapitalproject.org/)

  13. 1. SiteCharacterization: integrating “paleo” • Freshwater conditions dominated in past • Transition to brackish with sea level rise • Balance between seal level and watershed hydrology • Will human activity accelerate La Cienaga SM to the “tipping point” to marine conditions? Velez et al. (2014 ) The Holocene, in press

  14. 2. Characterizing ES and links to pressures SAFER PI meeting at La Paloma Lake Complex study site, April 2014 • Created exhaustive list of ecosystem services and pressures on them (using CISES* nomenclature) • Key services and pressures • Gathering local stakeholder perceptions (Uruguay complete) SAFER meeting with Dirección de General de Aguas (DGA), Coyhaique, Chile, April 2014 *CISES = Common International System for Ecosystems Services

  15. 3. Prioritization: Key ecosystem services Project team and local expertise combined to narrow focus to 2 or 3 key ecosystem services:

  16. 4. Risk and RiskPerceptionAnalysis • Method based on Lozoya et al. (2011) Environ. Sci. Policy. • In brief, risk is product of relative weights: RES-V = EPES x VALES x VULSTK RES-Vis the risk estimate for an ecosystem service EPES is the “effective provision” of that service [science] VALES is the value of that service [social science, stakeholders] VULSTK is the stakeholder vulnerability to reduced service [stakeholders] Key Question: How well will this approach translate across sites with major biogeographical, socioeconomic, and cultural differences?

  17. 5. (Meta-)Analysisover 6 sites • Compare and contrast sites with respect to: • Biophysical gradients • Socioeconomic development • Water rights and land tenure setting • LU/LC • Vulnerability to climatic and anthropogenic pressures • Risk perception • Watershed policy/regulatory setting • Identify gaps in coverage and recruit new collaborators

  18. Watershed demographics Río Senguerr: sparse population, agriculture, and oil

  19. Water footprint (national) • Green: Precipitation and soil moisture directly consumed • Blue: Surface and groundwater applied and consumed (e.g. irrigation) • Grey: Water needed to assimilate pollutants back into water bodies Fulton et al. (2012) California Water Institute Mekonnenand Hoekstra (2011) UNESCO-IHE

  20. tharmon@ucmerced.edu Getting involved! https://eng.ucmerced.edu/harmon/wsc-savi2.html

  21. Summary of progress: • 6current SAFER study sites covering a broad biophysical, socioeconomic and cultural space • Characterized ecosystem services • Domain encompassing watershed • Energy-mass flux basis, integrating paleo-information • Risk and risk perception analysis • Prognosis: Individual site results should be valuable • Challenge will be in overall synthesis

  22. Thankyou!Acknowledgments: • InterAmerican Institute (IAI) for Global Change Research, Coordinated Research Network Program • National Science Foundation (NSF): • Science Across Virtual Institutes (SAVI) CBET-1336839 • Water Sustainability & Climate (WSC) CBET-1204841 First SAFER graduate training workshop Coihaique, Chile May 1-6, 2014

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