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Modelling the potential economic impact of investment in Public Health Professor Malcolm Whitfield Director of The Cent

Modelling the potential economic impact of investment in Public Health Professor Malcolm Whitfield Director of The Centre for Health & Social Care Research Sheffield Hallam University, UK. The Key Problem. The health problem.

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Modelling the potential economic impact of investment in Public Health Professor Malcolm Whitfield Director of The Cent

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  1. Modelling the potential economic impact of investment in Public Health Professor Malcolm Whitfield Director of The Centre for Health & Social Care Research Sheffield Hallam University, UK

  2. The Key Problem

  3. The health problem “In the most industrialized countries of North America, Europe and the Asian Pacific, at least one-third of all disease burden is caused by tobacco, alcohol, blood pressure, cholesterol and obesity”. “More than three-quarters of cardiovascular disease (the world’s leading cause of death) results from tobacco use, high blood pressure or cholesterol, or their combination”. “Overall, cholesterol causes more than 4 million premature deaths a year, tobacco causes almost 5 million, and blood pressure causes around 7 million” WHO 2002

  4. The model idea Issue If we can get people to change their lifestyle i.e. diet, exercise, smoking and alcohol consumption we could reduce the burden of disease in society by up to 33% and reduce the cost of healthcare by over 70% Questions How much would we have to change the risk factors to reduce the burden of disease? What order of savings could we achieve on healthcare costs in the first five years? How much could we realistically invest in getting lifestyle change?

  5. The model

  6. The risk factors

  7. Does it work? To validate the model, we estimated how many people in five Primary Care Trusts (n=620,000 population) would have a heart attack, stroke, heart failure, kidney failure and heart surgery. We then compared the predicted number with the actual number NB The models has since been tested in 15 PCTs

  8. The validation – S/Yorks Admission data 2005/06 for 5 PCTs

  9. The validation - Liverpool

  10. The validation - Birmingham

  11. Admissions avoided (364,912 pop)

  12. Deaths avoided (364,912 pop)

  13. Revenue savings (364,912 pop)

  14. Estimated impact of health determinants on population health Key 10% Physical Environment 15% Genetic endowment 25% Health System 50% Socio-economic environment

  15. Linkage to Decipher model Original model

  16. North Karelia Age-adjusted mortality rates of coronary heart disease in North Karelia and the whole of Finland among males aged 35–64 years from 1969 to 2006. Main risk factors in North Karelia between 1972 and 2007 among men and women aged 30-59 years

  17. Nuffield Bio-Ethical http://www.nuffieldbioethics.org/news/council-cited-white-paper-public-health

  18. (Example) - CVD TE TE TE TE TE TE Public health intelligence (case finding) EPHP's Engagement Social marketing Health- literacy Informed choice Environmental initiatives Cardiac risk checks Disease registers Lifestyle change: Health Trainers Smoking Cessation Five a day Healthy schools meals Housing Green spaces Etc… Primary care: Statins Hypotensives Obesity treatments Pathway to equality PH Intelligence Public Health Interventions Primary care AE

  19. Decipher model http://www.sportseng.org/sheftool/

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