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Policy Diffusion of Auto Emission Standards - Is there a Race to the Top? -. October 27, 2009 Eri Saikawa Science, Technology & Environmental Policy Program Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs Princeton University. Question. Methodology. Analysis 1. Analysis 2.

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policy diffusion of auto emission standards is there a race to the top

Policy Diffusion of Auto Emission Standards- Is there a Race to the Top? -

October 27, 2009

Eri Saikawa

Science, Technology & Environmental Policy Program

Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs

Princeton University

1 st adoption of comprehensive emission standards

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

1st Adoption of Comprehensive Emission Standards

Mexico

Europe

Japan

Bangladesh

US

China

India

dissertation question

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Dissertation Question

Policy Diffusion of Auto Emission Standards

Why does diffusion occur? What is the impact?

  • Mechanisms of Policy Diffusion
    • Analyze mechanisms of diffusion and impact of adoption on automobile exports
  • Impact on Air Quality, Health & Climate
    • Impact of China’s pollution
impact of china s aerosols on global surface concentrations in 2000

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Impact of China’s Aerosols on Global Surface Concentrations in 2000

SO42-

BC

[µg m-3]

OC

Saikawa, et al. “Present and potential future contributions of sulfate, black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality, premature mortality and radiative forcing” Atmospheric Environment43 (2009) 2814-2822.

impact of china s aerosols on global premature mortality in 2000

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Impact of China’s Aerosols on Global Premature Mortality in 2000

Saikawa, et al. “Present and potential future contributions of sulfate, black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality, premature mortality and radiative forcing” Atmospheric Environment43 (2009) 2814-2822.

dissertation question1
Dissertation Question

Policy Diffusion of Auto Emission Standards

Why does diffusion occur? What is the impact?

Mechanisms of Policy Diffusion

Analyze mechanisms of diffusion and impact of adoption on automobile exports

Impact on Air Quality, Health & Climate

Impact of China’s pollution

Scenario analyses of China’s adoption

China’s Policymaking Process

Impact of domestic politics on standards adoption

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

questions arguments

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Questions & Arguments
  • Why did emission standards diffuse?
  • What happens after adoption?

Countries adopted standards to enhance the

competitiveness of their auto industries.

Except for low-income countries, automobile exports

increase.

mechanisms of diffusion

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Mechanisms of Diffusion
  • 4 major mechanisms in the Policy Diffusion literature:
    • Competitiveness
    • International Pressure
    • Normative Emulation
    • Learning
  • The “California Effect” (Vogel, 1997)
competitiveness mechanism

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Competitiveness Mechanism
  • The California Effect
    • Exporting countries adopt emission standards when major importing countries adopt standards
  • Competitor Effect
    • Exporting countries adopt emission standards when competing exporting countries adopt standards
my contribution

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

My Contribution
  • Extend competitiveness mechanism to environmental standards
  • Expand the “California Effect” theory to include developing countries
  • Empirical testing
methodology

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Methodology
  • Analysis 1. Event History Analysis
    • Identify mechanisms of policy diffusion
  • Analysis 2. Gravity Model of Trade
    • Assess impact of policy diffusion on competitive advantage in trade
dependent variable

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Dependent Variable
  • Created a database of the years that countries first adopted auto emission standards
  • Dichotomous coding
    • Code 0 – without adoption
    • Code 1 – with adoption
independent variables

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Independent Variables
  • Competitiveness:
    • The California effect – Share of auto exports to countries with standards
    • Competitor effect – Trade similarity
    • Competitor effect – Auto exports as share of GDP
independent variables1

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Independent Variables
  • International Pressure:
    • ODA & Official Aid as share of GDP
  • Normative Emulation:
    • Number of countries that have adopted standards
  • Learning:
    • Number of environmental IGOs of which a country is a member
control variables

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Control Variables
  • Real GDP per capita
  • EU membership
  • CO2 emissions from transport sector (proxy for tail-pipe emissions)
standards adoption

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Standards Adoption
  • Tested using logit function
  • Analyzed all countries 1975 – 2000
  • Cluster by country
  • Include year dummies
slide17

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

interpretations

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Interpretations
  • Competitiveness appears to be the major factor for standards adoption
  • High-income countries
    • “California effect” & “Competitor effect”
  • Developing countries
    • Upper-middle: “California effect”
    • Lower-middle & Low: “Competitor effect”
qualitative evidence

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Qualitative Evidence
  • 78 interviews in China and Japan
    • Managers in the automobile industry (Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, GM, VW, Geely)
    • Government officials (national and local)
    • Researchers at national institutions, think tanks, and universities
qualitative evidence1

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Qualitative Evidence
  • Main findings
    • Japanese government pushed automobile industry to develop technologies
    • Japanese auto industry opposed adoption of standards
    • Chinese government adopted the standards to reduce air pollution and to increase auto industry competitiveness
    • Foreign-venture automobile firms in China lobbied Beijing to adopt European standards
    • Difficult for local automobile industry to meet the requirements
slide21

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Emission Standards

Adoption

slide22

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Emission Standards

Adoption

slide23

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Emission Standards

Adoption

slide24

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Emission Standards

Adoption

impact of standards on exports

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Impact of Standards on Exports

Gravity Model of trade

  • Standard framework to assess the effects of bilateral trade
  • Estimates the impacts of emission standards on automobile exports
impact of standards on exports1

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Impact of Standards on Exports
  • 4 variables to consider:
    • Stdit: exporter’s adoption of standards
    • Stdjt: importer’s adoption of standards
    • Botht : both exporter/importer adopting standards
    • ln(Stdt) : log of number of countries with standards
slide27

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

slide28

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

interpretation

Question

Methodology

Analysis 1

Analysis 2

Conclusion

Interpretation
  • Adoption of emission standards

 except for low-income countries, positive effects on auto exports

  • Adoption of emission standards gives countries a competitive advantage
conclusion

Question

Methodology

Model 1

Model 2

Conclusion

Conclusion
  • Competitiveness is the major mechanism
  • Market incentives lead to more stringent environmental standards
  • Stringent emission standards  better environment, less premature mortality and more auto exports
policy implications

Question

Methodology

Model 1

Model 2

Conclusion

Policy Implications
  • Other “environmentally friendly” products may also create competitive advantage
  • Policy diffusion may apply to….
    • Product Standards for Appliances
    • Energy Efficiency Standards
  • Developed countries can influence developing countries’ behavior