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Evaluating Theories of Crime

Evaluating Theories of Crime. What is a “Theory?”. A statement of set of statements about the relationships between 2 or more events In criminology? Theories of crime Theories of how the criminal justice system operates A theory predicts what will happen, not how the world should be.

cameron-butler
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Evaluating Theories of Crime

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  1. Evaluating Theories of Crime

  2. What is a “Theory?” • A statement of set of statements about the relationships between 2 or more events • In criminology? • Theories of crime • Theories of how the criminal justice system operates • A theory predicts what will happen, not how the world should be

  3. How do you know a “good theory” when you see one? • Akers’ 6 criteria for evaluating a theory 1. Logical Consistency 2. Scope 3. Parsimony 4. Testability 5. Fit with Empirical Evidence 6. Usefulness of Policy Implications

  4. Logical Consistency • Clearly Defined Concepts • Concept = symbol/label that we apply to an abstract image • Examples? • Concepts must fit in a logical manner • BAD LOGIC: All crime is caused by imprisonment

  5. SCOPE (not the mouthwash) • DEPENDENT variable • How “general” is your explanation? • Specific forms of crime/deviance? • All crime? • All crime, deviance, sin, and recklessness? • All else being equal, “Wider is Better”

  6. Parsimony • INDEPENDENT (predictor) variables • How complex is your explanation? • Parsimony: Low self-control is single cause of crime • Not: Crime caused by a combination of poverty, inequality, average daily temperature, intelligence, hair color, weight, daily stress… • All else being equal, more parsimony is better!

  7. Testability • A valid theory can be falsified • Non-falsifiable theories? • Tautological arguments (crime causes crime) • Vague and open-ended statements (Freud) • Must be observe/measure concepts (little green men)

  8. Is the theory correct? • Survive empirical scrutiny • Few theories are entirely correct or false • To what degree is the theory supported? • Preponderance of evidence support? • Incorrect theories must be modified or discarded

  9. Policy Implication • All crime theories attempt to identify the “causes” of crime. • Can the causes be reversed? • Does the theory translate into practice? • Example: Marxist theory of crime

  10. Flow Chart for Evaluation NO = Useless, stop here • Evaluate the • Following: • Scope • Parsimony • Policy Implications Falsifiable? Logical? Yes Empirical Evidence? YES NO: Modify/Discard

  11. Correlation and Causation • For Social Sciences (“Probabilistic”): • X (the “cause”) must precede Y (the “effect”) • X must be related to Y • The correlation cannot be spurious

  12. Ruling out Spuriousness • Most commonly is the use of “Statistical Control” • Observe/measure factors that might render relationship spurious • Include these factors as “control variables” in a statistical model • Problems with this?

  13. Methods for Studying Crime • Experiments • Survey Research • Cross-sectional • Longitudinal

  14. Experiments • Experimental Control is better that statistical control • “True Experiment” • Random Assignment • In criminology? • Typically “quasi” experiments • Rehabilitation based on theory • Manipulate criminal justice system

  15. Survey Research • Typically cross-sectional • Usually high school students • Recent trend = longitudinal • Establish cause-effect ordering • Stability of criminal offending

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