NOAA Climate Research: Climate Variability

1. NOAA Climate Research: Climate Variability NOAA Research Overview: Climate Variability California floods during 1998 El Nino Drought in Great Plains, ca. 1935

2. Mission-critical research Mission-critical research Climate variability research is central to NOAA’s mission to provide: • Environmental assessments and predictions • Stewardship of marine resources Questions public and decision-makers ask NOAA: “Are we likely to see more or fewer storms with El Niño?” “How unusual is this drought, and what are its causes?” “What is the precipitation outlook for next season?” “How will climate variability impact fish stocks?”

3. Support for Observing Systems NOAA’s global and regional observing systems are crucial in supporting monitoring, interpretations, and predictions of climate variability.

4. Relationships to USGCRP/CCRI Relationships to USGCRP and CCRI USGCRP Draft Strategic Plan Objectives: Climate Variability and Change Improve detection, attribution, and projections of climate change. Extend and improve predictions of major modes of climate variability. Assess the potential for changes in extreme events at regional and local scales. Characterize the mechanisms and estimate the likelihood of abrupt climate change and expected global and regional manifestations. Improve effectiveness of interactions between producers and users of climate information. NOAA Research contributes to all five major objectives.

5. Relationships to USGCRP/CCRI CCRI: some suggested key products Improved knowledge of natural vs. human caused climate change. Increased understanding of the potential for extreme weather events as a result of climate change. New tools for integrated assessment and risk management. Increased understanding of natural variability is essential for reducing climate science uncertainties, e.g. in key climate forcing mechanisms, improving climate predictions, attributing the causes for observed variations, and assessing the potential for abrupt climate change.

6. Primary Research Foci NOAA Climate Variability Priorities Major areas for near-term emphasis (next 2-5 years): • Improve predictions of major modes of climate variability. • Increase understanding and capabilities to predict short-term climate variability, decadal-to-centennial variability, and their inter-relationships. • Develop climate prediction capabilities for high-impact events. • Establish quantitative estimates for risks of abrupt change. • Develop monitoring/forecast products for regional applications and risk reduction.

7. Core Activities NOAA Core Components: Climate Variability Research • Office of Global Programs • Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP) • Climate Variability and Predictability Programs (CLIVAR) • Global Water Cycle Program/GAPP • Climate Change Data and Detection Program (CCDD) • Climate Observations and Services Program (COSP) • Weather-Climate Connection • Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) • NOAA Research Laboratories • NWS Climate Prediction Center - routine monitoring/predictions

8. CDEP Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP) Objectives : • Contribute to the development and implementation of a coupled ocean-land-atmosphere forecast system based on dynamical models • Foster the development of new prediction and application techniques Focus: • Seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) prediction research and applications Method: • Sponsor a sustained critical mass of focused applied researchand development at a few institutions - the Applied Research Centers (ARCs). • Support the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), which provides international climate assessments and predictions.

9. CDEP CDEP Product example JAS OND Web tool enabling real-time comparisons of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly forecasts by different methods for three month seasons: July-September (JAS) October-December (OND)

10. CDEP Deliverables CDEP Deliverables • Improved seasonal forecast systems through advances in ocean data assimilation, seasonal diagnostics and regional modeling capabilities. • Model-based approaches for developing climate forecast products for regional applications and risk reduction. • Decision support tools to enable quantitative assessments of regional implications of global climate variability on time scales from seasonal to centennial. • International climate assessments and predictions through the IRI.

11. CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Objectives : • Understand mechanisms producing different patterns of natural climate variations and their global and regional manifestations. • Assess predictability of these climate modes through observational and modeling studies. Foci: • El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Tropical Atlantic Variability, and North American monsoon system. • Abrupt climate change (Atlantic thermohaline circulation). Method: • Sponsor investigator research/observational experiments in key regions: CLIVAR-Pacific, CLIVAR-Atlantic, CLIVAR-Americas. • Support interagency national (USCLIVAR) and international programs. • Implement Climate Model Process Teams (CPTs) to develop and improve climate model representations of physical processes.

12. Indian Ocean warming Research example: CLIVAR Wintertime Response of Climate Model to warm Indian Ocean Temperature Precipitation Model’s responses to warm Indian Ocean reinforces La Niña tendency for dry, warm conditions in SE and along east coast, as well as part of the northern plains. Probable contributing factor to U.S. and SW Asia (Afghan) droughts.

13. CLIVAR: deliverables CLIVAR Deliverables • Improved climate prediction and projection capability for global climate variability and change on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time scales. • Assessments of decadal predictability of climate modes. • Accelerated improvements in modeling of physical processes through the CPTs. Initial efforts will focus on high priority areas: cloud - water vapor feedbacks, and Arctic snow and ice feedbacks.

14. Water Cycle Program Global Water Cycle Program/GAPP Objectives : • Develop a capability to predict water cycle variables on monthly-to-seasonal time scales. • Interpret climate predictions for water management. • Assess risks to water systems through improved climate projections. Foci: • Impact of land surface processes (vegetation and soil moisture) on predictability of summer precipitation. • Initial focus on Americas, GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP). Method: • Sponsor investigator research/ modeling/ observational experiments. • Coordinated with larger national and international programs in the Global Water and Energy Cycle Experiment (GEWEX).

15. Research example: Water Cycle Program Research Example: Water Cycle Program Impact of Land Surface Processes (Vegetation and Soil Moisture) on predictability of summer precipitation

16. Water cycle Products/deliverables Global Water Cycle/GAPP Deliverables • Assessment of risks and vulnerabilities for river basins arising from variations and changes in the water cycle. • Improved experimental forecasts of precipitation and water cycle extremes on seasonal time scales. • Reduced uncertainty in climate model projections of long-term changes in the water cycle components. • Closure of the water budget globally and regionally over all time scales. • Integrated water cycle data products (satellite, in-situ) such as an integrated water vapor product. • Surface water cycle in-situ data sets and assimilation products for the validation of regional and globalclimate models.

17. Climate Change Data and Detection Climate Change Data and Detection (CCDD) Objectives : • Data set development and enhancement • Detection and attribution (NOAA-DOE) • Paleoclimatology (NOAA-NSF) Foci: • Produce time series for trends and variability. • Characterize the range of natural variability. • Establish linkages between paleo and instrumental records. Method: • Sponsor data set development. • Support data recovery/data archeology efforts.

18. Research example: CCDD Research Example: CCDD Trends in Ocean Heat Content Levitus (NODC)

19. CCDD: deliverables CCDD: Deliverables • Data sets needed to understand the climate system constructed and made available for analyses.

20. Weather-Climate Connection Weather-Climate Connection Objectives : • Improve understanding and predictions of connections between climate variations and high impact weather phenomena (droughts, floods) • Improve regional weather and climate observational capabilities • Develop stronger link between climate research and user needs • Infuse new science and technology into NOAA operational products Foci: • Improve predictions on weekly to seasonal time scales. • Initial focus on tropical-midlatitude interactions over the Pacific and their regional impacts on U.S. • Develop quantitative risk assessments for hazardous events. Method: • Intensive observational, diagnostic, and modeling studies at regional scales to assess predictability and realize the potential for operational prediction. • Research coordinated with services (NWS) and end users.

21. Research example: Wx-Clim. Connection Research example: Weather-climate Connection 40” of rain/ 7 days Pineapple Express MJO • Where will storm track be for the next few weeks? • When will an arctic outbreak affect the east coast? • When will the rain (drought, heat wave, etc.) end? • How will a climate shift affect the weather in a particular region?

22. Weather-Climate Connection: deliverables Weather-Climate Connection: Deliverables • Improved forecast capabilities of U.S. temperatures and precipitation from a week to a season. • Enhanced data sets and analyses to identify and interpret weather-climate connections between the tropics and mid-latitudes.

23. SEARCH Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Objectives : • Identify causes for observed multi-decadal trend of interrelated changes in the Arctic (atmosphere, ice, ocean, land) - termed “Unaami”. • Clarify potential for feedbacks (albedo, fresh water export, release of carbon from permafrost/methane hydrates) • Determine implications for abrupt changes. • Assess impacts to ecosystem and society. Foci: • Interannual to decadal time scales. • Arctic/subarctic ocean fluxes; relationship to thermohaline variability. • Expand on limited observations to track key variables; incorporate into models. Method: • Implement and sustain environmental observations. • Data analysis and research. • Coordinated with other agencies in SEARCH, as well as larger national and international programs in Arctic research.

24. SEARCH Products Examples: Search Products

25. SEARCH Products/deliverables SEARCH Deliverables • Temperature, radiation and ice data to support analyses of ice/albedo feedback, ocean thermohaline circulation, Arctic shipping routes, marine mammal management. • Atmospheric data to enhance model physics and improve prediction of Arctic Oscillation, US temperature and hydrologic forecasts • Long-term data to detect decadal changes, demonstrate links to mid-latitudes

26. Research Laboratories Research Laboratories Objectives : • Carry out long-term research central to NOAA’s mission • Provide sustained support for NOAA climate observations and services (e.g., NWS Climate Prediction Center) Foci: • Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML):provides and interprets oceanographic data and conducts research relevant to decadal climate change and coastal ecosystems, with primary focus on Atlantic. • Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC):Develops national capabilities to describe, interpret, and predict climate variations, emphasizing the causes and potential predictability of important climate phenomena such as ENSO, droughts, and floods. • Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL):Focuses on potential impacts of climate variability and change on the Great Lakes ecosystem and water cycle. • Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL):Focus on coastal and open ocean observations (especially of the Pacific) in support of prediction of the ocean environment on time scales from days to decades.

27. Research product example: extreme events Research example: ENSO effects on precipitation Model-derived Seasonal Precipitation probabilities for New Mexico Observed Rainfall (Oct. 2001-May) La Niña El Niño La Niña Composite (Oct.-May) The model results illustrate how “wet” La Niña conditions or “dry” El Niño conditions in New Mexico are both possible, but unlikely.

28. Research lab deliverables Research Laboratory products/deliverables • Develop near real-time attribution for the causes of extreme events. • Climate probability forecast capabilities, including risks of high-impact events. • Improved hazard assessments/outlooks for U.S. • Diagnostic tools that enable rapid intercomparisons of models and observations for climate interpretations and predictions.

29. NWS Operational Monitoring and Prediction NWS Monitoring and Prediction Services Objectives : • Deliver products for decision support • Regular and timely provision of climate obs. and predictions Foci: • Primary emphasis on intraseasonal to interannual time scales. • Includes monitoring of climate through the Cooperative Observer program network (COOP). • Routine climate predictions for the nation provided through the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC). • Support for seasonal model prediction development through the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC). Hydrologic predictions through the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS). • Coordinate diagnostic efforts, new product development with NOAA Research Laboratories (e.g., CDC).

30. Drought predictions - short-term outlook Operational example: Drought outlook (CPC) The outlook over the next few months Also increased risk of: • Heat waves where soil moisture is depleted • Major wildfires, western U.S. Western hydrological drought will continue through at least summer.

31. NWS Deliverables NWS products/deliverables • Climate analyses and forecasts from intraseasonal to interannual time scales.

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