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Washington Climate Challenge . Climate Advisory Team Meeting #1 March 30, 2007 WA Departments of Ecology & Community Trade & Economic Development (CTED) Center for Climate Strategies Ross & Associates. Welcome and Introductions. Departments of Ecology and CTED

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washington climate challenge

Washington Climate Challenge

Climate Advisory Team

Meeting #1

March 30, 2007

WA Departments of Ecology & Community Trade & Economic Development (CTED)

Center for Climate Strategies

Ross & Associates

welcome and introductions
Welcome and Introductions
  • Departments of Ecology and CTED
  • Climate Advisory Team members
  • Agency Advisors
  • Ross & Associates and the Center for Climate Strategies

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

agenda
Agenda
  • Purpose of and Charge to the Climate Advisory Team (CAT)
  • How to proceed to fulfill the CAT’s charge
  • Review the CAT Step-Wise Approach
  • Relationship between the CAT and Technical Working Groups
  • Current “State of Play” of Climate Change in Washington
  • Review of the Draft Washington Emissions Inventory & Forecast and introduction to the Catalog of Climate Emission Reduction Actions
  • Next Steps for the CAT and TWGs, including Schedule and Logistics for Next CAT Meeting
  • Public Comment

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

purpose key outcomes
Purpose & Key Outcomes
  • Purpose of the CAT
    • Develop recommendations for achieving the goals laid out in Executive Order 07-02
  • Charge to the CAT
    • Review and approve state greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory and forecast
    • Review and assess recent actions taken and impacts on goals
    • Identify actions to meet 2020 goals for GHG emissions, job creation fuel savings
    • Evaluate opportunities for regional collaboration
    • Identify state lead-by-example opportunities
    • Identify ways to coordinate state and local GHG reduction actions
    • Inform and involve the public
  • Report to ECY/CTED by January 2008

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

cat and climate change challenge
CAT and Climate Change Challenge
  • ECY & CTED oversee and coordinate process
  • CAT makes recommendations to ECY/CTED
  • CAT provides guidance to the Technical Working Groups (TWGs)
  • TWGs assist the CAT
  • CCS & Ross provide facilitation, technical support and analysis
  • Public input and review

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

key principles of the process
Key Principles of the Process
  • Transparent
  • Inclusive
  • Step-wise
  • Fact-based
  • Strive for consensus

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

transparency
Transparency
  • Policy Design
    • Timing, goals, coverage, implementation methods
  • Economic analysis
    • Data sources
    • Quantification methods
    • Key assumptions

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

inclusive and comprehensive
Inclusive and Comprehensive
  • All GHG’s
  • All sectors
  • All potential implementation mechanisms
  • State and multi-state actions
  • Short and long term actions

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

step wise
Step-Wise
  • Sequential, incremental
    • Participants are asked not to reconsider decisions already made in the stepwise process
    • Once the CAT reaches a milestone by consensus or vote, it moves to the next step
  • Sufficient time, information and interaction between steps
  • CAT stays current with information and decisions

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

fact based
Fact-based
  • Preliminary fact finding
    • Inventory and forecast of GHG emissions
    • Inventory of state actions, studies
  • Joint fact finding and policy development
    • Inventory and forecast of emissions
    • Priorities for analysis, policy description, policy design specifications, implementation mechanisms, alternative solutions

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

strive for consensus
Strive for Consensus
  • Votes taken to advance to next steps
  • Consensus driven
  • Discussion and alternatives to resolve conflicts, if any
  • Final votes include support at three levels
  • Final report will document level of support

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

cat charter
CAT Charter
  • Provide leadership and vision for devising solutions that meet the goals of the Executive order
  • Give consideration to Washington’s unique emission portfolio
  • Represent a wide range of experience and sectors
  • Co-chaired by the Directors of ECY and CTED

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

cat ground rules
CAT Ground Rules
  • Support the process
    • No debate on the science of climate change, the goals established in Executive Order 07-02, or the timeline
  • All members have equal footing during deliberations and decisions
  • Attend meetings and stay current with information provided to the group and all group decisions
  • No backsliding
  • Must be able to vote or take a position at meetings
  • Make objective contributions

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

questions
Questions?

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

the challenge
The Challenge
  • “The ultimate objective of this Convention .... is to achieve, .… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”
    • UNFCCC Article 2 Objective,
    • Rio De Janeiro

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

stepwise planning process
Stepwise Planning Process
  • Develop inventory and forecast of emissions
  • Identify a full range of possible actions
  • Identify initial priorities for analysis
  • Develop straw proposals
  • Quantify GHG reductions and costs/savings
  • Evaluate externalities, feasibility issues
  • Develop alternatives to address barriers
  • Aggregate results
  • Iterate to final agreements
  • Finalize and report recommendations

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

decision criteria
Decision Criteria
  • GHG Reduction Potential (MMTCO2e)
  • Cost or Cost Saved Per Ton GHG Removed
  • Fuel Savings
  • Job Creation
  • Externalities
  • Feasibility Issues

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

us states 30 of top 75 world emitters
US States: 30 of Top 75 World Emitters

WA = #26 among US States, #77 in world

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

states set the bar
States Set the Bar…
  • Goals
  • Policies
  • Innovation
  • Implementation
  • Consensus
  • Conflict resolution

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

state ghg growth rates
State GHG Growth Rates

Data from the Center for Climate Strategies, 2006-2007, and US DOE, 2005

FL = 88%

US = 50%

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

state climate plans
State Climate Plans

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

state actions since 2000
State Actions Since 2000
  • GHG State Emissions Inventories and Forecasts
    • 25 recent
  • Energy and Climate Policies and Mechanisms
    • 300+ types undertaken, more underway
  • State Climate Action Plans
    • 22 complete or underway, more likely
  • Statewide GHG targets and timetables
    • 13 current, 9 underway
  • Reporting systems and or registries
    • 30 underway
  • Regional actions
    • NEG/ECP, WRCAI, RGGI

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

state climate goals
State Climate Goals

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

az climate plan results
AZ Climate Plan Results

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

categories of action
Categories of Action
  • Energy efficiency and conservation
  • Clean and renewable energy
  • Transportation
  • Forestry
  • Agriculture
  • Waste management
  • Industrial process improvement

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

states wedges
States’ “Wedges”

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

implementation methods
Implementation Methods
  • Voluntary Agreements
  • Technical Assistance
  • Financial Incentives
  • Targeted Spending
  • Codes and Standards
  • Market Based Approaches
  • Pilots and Demos
  • Information and Education
  • Research and Development
  • Reporting and Disclosure

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

policy design proposals
Policy Design Proposals
  • CAT identifies about 50 draft potential options for further development
  • TWGs screen, prioritize, and propose initial policy option design (“straw proposals”)
    • Timing
    • Goals
    • Coverage
  • CCS quantifies and presents for review
  • CAT revisits list of potential priorities, as needed

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

policy option template
Policy Option Template
  • Policy description (concept)
  • Policy design (goals, timing, coverage)
  • Implementation methods
  • Related programs and policies
  • Estimated GHG savings and costs per MMTCO2e
    • Data sources, methods and assumptions
    • Key uncertainties
  • Additional (non-GHG) benefits and costs, as needed
  • Feasibility issues, if needed
  • Status of group approval
  • Level of group support
  • Barriers to consensus, if any

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

a portfolio of policy options
A “Portfolio” of Policy Options

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

cat final report to ecy cted
CAT Final Report to ECY/CTED
  • Executive Summary
  • Background, Purpose And Goals
    • Description of the Process
    • History and Status of State Actions
  • WA Emissions Inventory & Forecast
  • CAT Policy Recommendations & Results
    • Energy Supply
    • Residential, Commercial, Industrial
    • Transportation
    • Agriculture
    • Forestry
    • Waste Management
    • Cross Cutting Issues
  • Appendices

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

timing and milestones
Timing and Milestones

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

questions35
Questions?

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

cat and twgs
CAT and TWGs

CAT

Review existing and planned state actions

Identify potential options for design and priorities for analysis

Recommend actions to achieve the EO goals

Technical Working Groups (TWGs)

Analysis, review and early ranking of options

Develop initial straw proposals for design

Input and review of CAT recommendations and reports

Review state GHG inventory and forecast

TWG process is fully integrated with the CAT

TWGs serve in an advisory role to CAT

CAT membership on the Technical Working Groups

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

twg areas of focus
TWG Areas of Focus
  • Transportation
    • Vehicle efficiency, alternative fuels & demand reduction programs, land use
  • Residential, Commercial, and Industrial (RCI)
    • Energy efficiency & conservation, industrial process, “customer side” of the meter
  • Energy Supply
    • Heat and power generation; electrical generation, supply, transmission
  • Agriculture
    • Biofuels, waste reduction, recycling & energy recovery, solid waste management
  • Forestry
    • Forest restoration, sustainable forest management, wood energy, sequestration

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

questions38
Questions?

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

break
Break

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

state of play
“State of Play”
  • Why we need to take action now
  • What We’ve Already Done
  • How Our Actions Tie to Others – The Local, Regional, and National Connections
  • The Role of Preparation and Adaptation

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

why we need to act
Why we need to act
  • Emissions

growth

  • Population

growth

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

environmental challenges
Environmental Challenges
  • Rising sea level
  • Decline in snow pack
  • Milder winters, warmer summers
  • Increase in wildfire risk
  • Changes in peak river flows

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

economic challenges
Economic Challenges
  • Costs of fighting fire may increase 50% by 2020 - $75 million
  • Water restrictions/higher water prices in the Yakima Basin
  • Increased costs for shoreline protection – seawalls, coast erosion
  • Increase municipal water costs

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

opportunities
Opportunities
  • Economic growth
  • Clean energy leadership
  • Avoided damages
  • Shape policy
  • Form markets
  • Political leadership

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

slide45

Accomplishments to-date

  • Required all new fossil fuel power plants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (RCW 80.70)
  • Adopted the California Car Standards
    • Reduces CO2 emissions in newer cars and light trucks by more than 30% and in SUVs by 25%
  • Adopted renewable fuels standards for transportation by requiring 2% of fuel sold is biodiesel or ethanol
  • Funded the Energy Freedom Loan Program to support in-state biofuels production
  • Instituted high-performance green building standards
  • Have one of the most energy-efficient building codes in the nation

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

accomplishments cont
Accomplishments – cont.
  • Retrofitting most polluting diesel school buses and local government vehicles
  • Passed a renewable and energy efficiency initiative - Energy Independence Act
  • Implemented electric utility conservation programs
  • Reduced energy use by state agencies through EO 05-01
  • Adopted appliance efficiency standards

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

how the climate challenge ties to other actions
How the Climate Challenge Ties to other Actions
  • 2003 West Coast Governor’s Global Warming Initiative
  • 2003/04 Climate Protection Advisory CommitteePuget Sound Clean Air Agency
  • 2005/06 Legislative Session – CA Vehicle Emissions Standards, Appliance Efficiency Standards, Green Buildings, Biofuels Content
  • 2007 Western Climate Action Initiative – WA, OR,

CA, AZ, NM

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

wa local government actions
WA Local Government Actions
  • Puget Sound Clean Air Agency
  • King County
  • City of Seattle
  • Cities participating in the Climate Change Protection Campaign:
    • Bellingham, Burien, King County, Olympia, Seattle, Spokane, Spokane County, Tacoma

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

western climate action initiative
Western Climate Action Initiative
  • WA, OR, CA, AZ, NM signed in February 2007
  • Three Goals
    • Set an overall regional goal within 6 months
    • Develop a design for a market-based, multi-sector mechanism, such as load-based cap and trade program within 18 months
    • Participate in a multi-state GHG registry
  • Detailed Work Begins in April

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

2007 proposed legislation
2007 Proposed legislation
  • Climate change, SB 6001 (ESSB version):
    • Adopt Governor’s goals and establish electrical sector performance mechanisms
  • Cleaner energy, HB 1303 (E2SHB version):
    • Provisions for further use and production of biofuels and ethanol
  • Renewable energy, several House and Senate bills:
    • Anaerobic digestion power, renewable fuel standards, solar hot water, sustainable energy trust

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

preparation and adaptation
Preparation and Adaptation
  • We are already seeing signs of climate change
  • Change will continue and we need to
    • Understand what it means
    • Be able to incorporate our best predictions of change into our planning and investment decisions
  • Impacts are less well understood than reduction strategies

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

slide52

Glaciers tell a compelling story

At least 4 glaciers have

disappeared entirely

Loss of mass

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

slide53

South Cascade Glacier

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

Photos courtesy of Dr. Ed Josberger, USGS Glacier Group, Tacoma, WA

questions54
Questions?

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

washington ghg emissions
Washington GHG Emissions
  • Draft Inventory and Reference Case Projections
  • Initial analysis by CTED, Ecology and CCS for discussion and final revision
    • Inventory of historical emissions from 1990 to most recent data year (2000-2005, depending on sector)
    • Projection of emissions to 2020

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

coverage
Coverage
  • Six gases per USEPA and UNFCCC guidelines
    • Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O, Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6)
    • Black Carbon may be considered separately
  • All major sources and sinks
    • Transportation
    • Electricity Generation
    • Residential, Commercial, Industrial Fuel Use
    • Agriculture
    • Forestry
    • Industrial Processes and Other Sources

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

inventory approach
Inventory Approach
  • Based on standard US EPA and UN methodologies, guidelines, and tools
  • Emphasis on transparency, consistency, and significance
  • Preference for Washington or regional data, where available, e.g. as developed by CTED
  • Consumption (load-based) and production-based emissions from electricity generation
    • Simplified approach used for initial analysis

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

projection approach
Projection Approach
  • Reference case assumes no major changes from business-as-usual
    • Does not include impact of recent policies such as:

2005 Clean Car Act (GHG tailpipe standards)

Clean Energy Initiative

Others noted in Executive Order

  • Growth assumptions from existing sources
    • Northwest Power and Conservation Council
    • WA Population Forecast
    • Western Regional Air Partnership
    • US Energy Information Administration
    • US Bureau of Labor & Statistics

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

washington us emissions by sector year 2005 draft
Washington & US Emissions By Sector, Year 2005 (draft)

Industrial process emissions include emissions from Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) substitutes

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

gross ghg emission intensity 1990 2005 draft
Gross GHG Emission Intensity, 1990-2005 (draft)

Per Capita

Per GDP/GSP

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

slide61

Washington Gross GHG Emissions By Sector (draft)(includes production-basis electricity emissions*, excludes forestry and soil sequestration)

* - similar chart with load-based electricity emissions under development

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

forestry draft
Forestry (draft)

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

electricity consumption load based vs production approaches
Electricity – Consumption (load-based) vs. Production approaches

Source: CTED analysis

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

key points
Key Points
  • CTED, Ecology, and CCS are currently reviewing methodology and data gaps
  • Draft inventory and projection document expected in April
  • Will include load-based electricity emissions
  • Projected emissions savings from recent actions to be estimated separately

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

catalog of states actions
Catalog of States’ Actions
  • Existing, planned and proposed state level actions
  • Wide variety of US states
  • All sectors
  • Wide variety of implementation mechanisms
  • Includes key WA actions
  • CAT will add new potential actions
  • Starting place for identification of CAT priorities

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

questions67
Questions?

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

next steps
Next Steps
  • Schedule
  • Next meeting topic and logistics

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

schedule and milestones
Schedule and Milestones

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

twg status
TWG Status
  • Lots of Volunteers
  • Need to balance size with broad-based interest
  • Expect to finalize by April 6
  • Interim TWG meeting before next CAT meeting will cover:
    • suggested revisions to the emissions inventory and reference case projections,
    • early ranking of options in the catalog and straw voting for initial “priority for analysis” options; and
    • development of straw proposals for design parameters for selected options

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

next cat meeting
Next CAT Meeting
  • June 5, 2007 in Spokane, WA
  • Agenda:
    • Review and recommend updates to inventory and baseline forecast
    • Review and revise catalog of potential actions
    • Discuss process for identifying initial priorities for TWG analysis
    • Discuss of process for developing straw policy design proposals
    • Updates on working groups

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

public comment
Public Comment

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange

for more information
For more information

Website: www.ecy.wa.gov/climate change

www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange