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  1. Risk assessments and business continuity for the Egg Industry SasidharMalladi, Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, University of Minnesota April 17th 2013

  2. Overview • Business continuity planning for a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak • Background • SES Plan • Proactive Risk Assessments • SalmonellaEnteritidis risk assessments • Background • Recent studies and ongoing work • Opportunities for risk assessment

  3. Background: Market Continuity Impact of HPAI Outbreak • Emergency response in the event of a HPAI outbreak • Control Area established • Quarantine and movement control • Market continuity consequences: table egg sector • Just in time supply chain: holding capacity limited to 48-72 hours • Poultry dense area: potential impact on food security • e.g., Mexico H7N3 outbreak

  4. Background: Control Area HPAI Scenario

  5. SES Plan Purpose • Provide science and risk based guidelines supporting movement permitting decisions • Promote food security and animal health • Ensure continuity of markets and egg supply • Facilitate rapid permitting decisions • Foster government, industry, consumer confidence

  6. Egg Sector Working Group USDA-APHIS-VS NCAHEM CEAH UMN-CAHFS State Animal Health Officials ISU-CFSPH UEP, AEB, Production Veterinarians Public-Private-Academic Partnership

  7. Proactive Risk Assessments Definition Proactive = completed prior to an outbreak Risk Assessment = A science based process that both quantifies and qualifies risk What’s their role? Provides decision making guidance to those responding (i.e. regulatory & industry)

  8. Proactive Risk Assessments • Risk of HPAI spread via movement of various egg industry products from “Infected but Undetected” flocks in a Control Area • Preventive measures evaluated: • Federal programs and regulations (AMS, FSIS, NPIP) • Routine biosecurity and C&D practices • Product specific biosecurity measures (during outbreak) • Active surveillance protocols (during outbreak) • Holding time (during outbreak)

  9. Proactive Risk Assessment Process • RA specific working groups • Industry representatives • Industry practices and data • Input on outbreak measures and field experiences • USDA APHIS and State Animal Health Officials • Regulatory perspective • Technical expertise • Academic institutions • Technical expertise • Outreach and facilitating workgroup • Review process: industry workgroup; USDA-APHIS-CEAH; risk managers and stakeholders

  10. Proactive Risk Assessment: Quantitative Models • Simulation model outcomes • Time to detect HPAI • Clinical signs • Active surveillance • Likelihood of moving contaminated egg industry products from an infected flock before detection • Methods • Stochastic simulation model of within flock HPAI spread • Simulation models of detection via RRT-PCR testing given testing of daily mortality

  11. Proactive Risk Assessment: Washed and Sanitized Shell Eggs • Washed and sanitized—in a 100–200 parts per million (ppm) chlorine solution • Outbreak Measures • Diagnostic testing from sick/dead birds from each house • Daily mortality within normal range • Truck and driver biosecurity • C&D of egg handling materials • Two day hold after production before moving eggs to market

  12. Example Timeline for Washed and Sanitized Shell Eggs

  13. Quantitative Results for Movement of Shell Eggs

  14. Washed and Sanitized Shell Eggs Risk Assessment Results • The risk associated with the shell surface of eggs that are washed and sanitized as specified in 7CFR56.76 is negligible. • The overall risk of moving washed and sanitized shell eggs into, within, and outside of a Control Area during an HPAI outbreak is, • negligibleif there are no poultry on the destination premises • low if there are poultry on the destination premises

  15. Proactive Risk Assessments Supporting SES Plan

  16. SES Plan Summary Permit Table (Selected portions)

  17. SES Plan Benefits • Ensures a continuous supply of fresh egg products • Enhances market continuity within and between States during an HPAI outbreak • Facilitates early detection of avian influenza in egg production flocks and reduces HPAI spread from an index outbreak to other egg production flocks • Supports the USDA APHIS HPAI Response Plan: The Red Book • Beneficial working relationships between Stakeholders

  18. Salmonella Enteritidis(SE) Risk Assessments: Background • Previous public health risk assessments • Farm to fork approach • Lesser emphasis on on-farm risk factors • 1998 FSIS Risk Assessment • Predicted 2.3 million contaminated eggs and mean 661,633 SE illnesses per year from eggs and egg products • Risk factors evaluated: molting, storage temperature, handling, cooking and pooling in preparation of eggs

  19. SERisk Assessments: Background • 2005 FSIS Risk Assessment Update • Predicted approximately 15 million contaminated eggs and 131,122 SE illnesses per year from eggs and egg products • Detailed modeling of location of SE in egg, temperature, yolk membrane breakdown, growth and pasteurization scenarios • USDA NAHMS Layers 1999 study • Rodent index, age, molting, access of pests to feed, visitor biosecurity • Potential factors: C&D practices, manure handling

  20. SE Risk Assessments: Recent Studies on Attribution • Attribution: the proportion of SE illnesses “due to” the consumption of eggs and egg products • FDA final rule • Outbreak Surveillance1985-2002 • Mean 66% of SE illness (53% to 79%) attributable to eggs • Recent CDC update Painter et al., 2013 • Outbreak Data from 1998 to 2010 • 35.2 to 61.8 % of SEillnesses attributable to eggs • 68% of SE outbreaks attributable to eggs

  21. SE Risk Assessments: Ongoing Studies • Upcoming NAHMS layers 2013 survey • Update prevalence estimates • Vaccination practices • SE testing practices • Greater detail on practices such as manure handling and end of production C&D • Risk assessment relevance • Update parameters related to risk factors • Improve modeling of the impact of farm management practices on SE prevalence.

  22. SE Risk Assessment Opportunities: Between Premises Spread • Transmission risk with different types of movements • Egg handling materials • Nest run eggs, inedible eggs • Surplus hens and pullets to backfill a layer house • Risk assessment and simulation models • Estimate likelihood of spread per movement based on predicted within flock prevalence • Impact of C&D and movement specific biosecurity practices • Epidemiological studies help in validation

  23. SE Risk Assessment Opportunities: Within Premises Spread and Prevalence • Improved estimation of the impact of various risk factors • Fly and insect control • End of production C&D • Vaccination • Manure handling • Risk Assessment • Quantitative simulation models of within flock salmonella prevalence • Models may help quantify interaction between various risk factors • Risk assessment approaches can help identify efficient and effective strategies to maintain continuity of market and improve food safety

  24. Resources • U.S. Secure Egg Supply Plan www.secureeggsupply.com • FAD-PReP Secure website: fadprep.lmi.org • UMN-CAHFS and NCFPD www.cahfs.umn.edu www.ncfpd.umn.edu • ISU www.cfsph.iastate.edu • Interagency RA www.fsis.usda.gov/Science/risk_assessments/index.asp