The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction

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  1. The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 07, 2019 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

  2. Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology

  3. Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall near to above normal over India, Bangladesh, Burma, and South China Sea countries, but less than normal over China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and southeastern Australia.

  4. Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, much of India except northern India, received above normal rainfall. Elsewhere, much of the whole region received below normal rainfall, except South Korea.

  5. Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, as the Summer southwest monsoon season has officially come to an end in India, the rainfall over the whole monsoon region is at near or below normal levels. The northeast winter monsoon (Oct-Dev) is about to start.

  6. Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.

  7. Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

  8. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

  9. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

  10. Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall near to above normal over India, Bangladesh, Burma, and South China Sea countries, but less than normal over China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and southeastern Australia. For the past 30 days, much of India except northern India, received above normal rainfall. Elsewhere, much of the whole region received below normal rainfall, except South Korea. In this past week, as the Summer southwest monsoon season has officially come to an end in India, the rainfall over the whole monsoon region is at near or below normal levels. The northeast winter monsoon (Oct-Dev) is about to start. For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts slightly above normal rainfall over southern India and parts of Indonesia. Elsewhere, below normal rainfall is forecast, except over parts of Indonesian islands.

  11. Demise of the Asian Monsoon

  12. Onset of the Australian Monsoon

  13. Climatology