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Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?

Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?. Prof Ray Wills Managing Director Future Smart Strategies Leader Western Australia Blue Australasia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia Deputy Chair, and Chief Adviser

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Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?

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  1. Going sustainable in the 21st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue? Prof Ray Wills Managing Director Future Smart Strategies Leader Western Australia Blue Australasia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia Deputy Chair, and Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia @ProfRayWills

  2. Adoption rate of technology • Markets tell us how quickly disruptive technologies can impact • Natural rate of turnover and retirement in technology • But, adoption of new technology rarely just ‘natural’ • Transitions to new technology will be more rapid where changes are favoured by: • consumer sentiment; • policy measures and regulation; • pricing advantage. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. (Niels Bohr)

  3. Roger’s diffusion curve

  4. Wake up and smell the roses • Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? • (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC • PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet • Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry) • Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) • VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay • Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) • Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet • Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar

  5. Technology adoption rates – US • Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??) NY Times

  6. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

  7. Technology adoption - manufacturers Zoepf 2011

  8. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

  9. The Big Bang Theory NY Times

  10. Technology adoption rates

  11. Technology energy use Laptop Tablet Computer Televisions www.epri.com

  12. Electricity generation - Australia

  13. Renewable energy growth Data IEA

  14. Potential EV growth

  15. Global renewables 2014 +>

  16. Declining price on solar

  17. Declining price on solar

  18. Global renewables

  19. Global energy – fossil and renewables

  20. Global energy – impact on emissions

  21. US energy sources changing

  22. Solar on Australian homes • 1.2 million solar installs in Australia, total 3.3 GW of capacity; output estimated 4500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to March 2014. • WA – 155,000 rooftops with solar, a total of 364MW of solar capacity • Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 7500 homes, 15 MW of capacity

  23. Solving energy poverty

  24. Evolving markets

  25. Solar and storage fight energy poverty • Developing nations can meet modest domestic power needs with solar. • Means storage is already economically affordable.

  26. @ProfRayWills

  27. Rapid change- mobility • Efficiency in transport • Energy storage key • New tech may be disruptive

  28. Electric mass transit • Siemens Bordeaux light rail • Hybrid battery-electric • Bombardier wireless battery-electric • Bombardier Slim Ride • Series 700 Shinkansen

  29. Commercialvehicles Smith Newton electric truck Diesel Electric hybrids • Honda prime mover • Volvo Hybrid - Veolia • London Bus- diesel hybrid, and electric • CAT Haul Pak + Earthmover • Oshkosh Military Vehicle

  30. Flying and floating fuels • 25 Feb 08 - Virgin Atlantic 1stbiofuel flight • (But 1st USAF - 30 Oct 07) • (QANTAS much later 14 Feb 11 ) • 13 Sep 11 – US Navy announces Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuelsoperating independent of fossil fuelsupply line threat or disruption • And other diesel electric drives - MAN diesel

  31. Smart gridsdevices and buildings – and microgrids… • Integrated energy planning smart devices (not grids) to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators • Distributed generation changes utility paradigm

  32. Green cities consuming less energy • Global • Tianjin Eco-City China • Ulsan EcocityKorea • Masdar City UAE • Australia • City of Sydney • City of Melbourne • City of Townsville • City of Fremantle • Local government critical • Nimble government • Community demand

  33. Increasing pace of technology adoption • Big decrease in developmental lag • Innovation/development of new products • Supply side capabilities • Market competition • Growing consumer expectations • Higher level of communication between consumers - blogspace • CSR, reputation and CFOs • Regulation • Energy just a commodity

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