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An “alternative presentation” of trade by product. Agenda Item : 5f. OECD Statistics Directorate Bettina.Wistrom@oecd.org . 3rd WPTGS meeting 4-6 October 2010, OECD. Outline. No unified presentation of trade in goods/services

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an alternative presentation of trade by product

An “alternative presentation” of trade by product

Agenda

Item : 5f

OECD Statistics Directorate

Bettina.Wistrom@oecd.org

3rd WPTGS meeting 4-6 October 2010, OECD

outline
Outline
  • No unified presentation of trade in goods/services
  • Why a proposal for an alternative presentation of trade by product.
  • The conceptual correspondence: a tentative example

C1- Trade by product correspondence table

C2-Correspondence on trade in goods side

C21- Removing duplicates

C22-Estimating distribution services

C3-Correspondence on trade in services side

C4- Merge both to present trade by product and industry.

D. Conclusion/questions

a no unified presentation of trade in goods and services
A. No unified presentation of trade in goods and services
  • Trade in goods described by HS 2007 and SITC rev 4 – physical movement of goods cross frontiers
  • Trade in services – BOP/EBOPS 2010 – resident non-resident transactions – goods is “general merchandise” – change of ownership.
  • The detail is in one (IMTS for goods) or the other (BOP for services) but not both
b why a proposal for an alternative presentation of trade by product
B. Why a proposal for an “alternative presentation” of trade by product.
  • The needs for relating trade statistics to SUT and IO is an argument for producing integrated statistics on trade in product by activity
  • This could also improve analytical links to production, employment, enterprise, AMN, and direct investment statistics.
a tentative correspondence at a modest level of disaggregation
A tentative correspondence at a modest level of disaggregation
  • Only “current” classifications are used.
  • Only at the section level of ISIC rev 3.1 and at the higher level of EBOPS data.
  • Only exports are considered
c the conceptual correspondence a tentative example
C. The conceptual correspondence: a tentative example
  • Data from OECD ITCS and TIS databases (reference year 2007) loaded in access database.
  • Service : Use (and develop) the correspondence table between ISIC rev 3.1 and EBOPS 2002 using CPC1.1 as a link(source MSITS 2002)
  • Goods : use the existing correspondence between HS 2002, CPC ver. 1.1, ISIC rev 3.1
  • Merge to obtain trade by product (CPC 1.1) and by industry (ISIC rev 3.1)
special focus on two cross cutting items
Special focus on two “cross cutting” items:
  • Distribution services understand the role of these in trade, important in context of GATS - estimated using basic assumptions of BEA on US Trade
  • Software licences registered in Goods (to get a sense of size of these of interest to NA that qualify as GFCF) – proxied with HS 852439 disc for laser reading system.

Manufacturing services on inputs owned by others not dealt with

c2 correspondence on trade in goods side
C2-Correspondence on trade in goods side
  • No one to one correspondence between ISIC and HS – CPC.
  • One HS series can consequently be allocated to (or produced by) several industries, hence generating some double countings when producing a trade by industry table.
  • Some “duplicate” HS series do then need to be removed.
c21 removing duplicates in oecd merchandise trade data 1 2
C21-Removing “duplicates” in OECD merchandise trade data 1/2
  • 35 commodity duplicates (out of 80 at section level) are related to ISIC section B (fishing) i.e. same commodity linked to ISIC classes 0501 (Fishing) and 0502 (Aquaculture)
  • HS item 852439 “Discs for laser reading systems” linked to section D (manufacture) & section K (real estate, renting & business activities) in class 7221 software publishing.
c3 correspondence on trade in services side
C3-Correspondence on trade in services side
  • No one to one correspondence with ISIC.
  • EBOPS only partly product based
  • Working at an aggregate level allows to calculate a total OECD
d conclusion next steps
D- Conclusion & next steps
  • “Alternative presentation” is still at a preliminary stage.
  • Some of main challenges (manufacturing services) of future revision not dealt with here.
  • As no one to one correspondence is possible many calculation of estimates necessary and metadata should be studied carefully,
  • Next step: extend the example to imports
  • Present the Industry section at the division level
  • Benchmark with existing surveys to give more importance to Secondary production of services of industries primarily producing goods.
questions to the wptgs
Questions to the WPTGS
  • Any experience in estimating distribution services included in merchandise trade?
  • How should perpetual Licences to use software-non customized- provided on disk be treated. Is HS 852439 (Discs for laser reading systems) a good proxy ? 
  • How could manufacturing services be treated in future?