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SPSRB Project Plan “NPP Microwave Sounder-based Tropical Cyclone Products (NTCP)”. IPT Lead: Mark DeMaria, STAR/NESDIS IPT Backup Lead: Limin Zhao , OSPO/NESDIS August 8-9, 2012. V14.2 12 Jan 2010. 1. Outline. 2. V14.2 12 Jan 2010. Integrated Product Team (IPT) Requirements

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SPSRB Project Plan “NPP Microwave Sounder-based Tropical Cyclone Products (NTCP)”


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    1. SPSRB Project Plan “NPP Microwave Sounder-based Tropical Cyclone Products (NTCP)” IPT Lead: Mark DeMaria, STAR/NESDIS IPT Backup Lead: Limin Zhao, OSPO/NESDIS August 8-9, 2012 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 1

    2. Outline 2 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 Integrated Product Team (IPT) Requirements Capabilities Assessment IT System Architecture Plan of Operations Project Milestones Funding Spending Plan and Tasks

    3. Integrated Product Team (IPT) 3 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 • IPT Lead: Mark DeMaria (StAR) • IPT Backup Lead: Limin Zhao (OSPO) • NESDIS Team: • STAR: Mark DeMaria, John Knaff • OSPO: Limin Zhao, Liqun Ma (TC products PAL) • OSD: Tom Schott • NDE: Dylan Powell • Data Center: Phil Jones • Others: Andrea Schumacher (CIRA), Jiande Wang (SSAI) • User Team • Lead: Michael Brennan and Jack Beven (NHC) • Oversight Panel (OP) lead: ICAPOP • Other OPs involved: Soundings, Precipitation

    4. Requirement(s) 4 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 • SPSRB User Request #1009-0017 submitted by NHC • Requesting the current AMSU-based TC intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds be generalized from ATMS during the NPP and JPSS era to support the continuity of operation. • User community • National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) • Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Dept. of Defense • NWS Offices • Benefit to user • Continuity of TC products that provide guidance to NHC forecasters • NOAA Mission Goal supported: • Weather and Water • Commerce and Transportation • Mission priority: Optimal

    5. Capabilities Assessment V14.3 11 Arp 2011

    6. Capabilities Assessment (Continued) 6 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 • Current Operational Shortfalls • AMSU-based TC intensity, radii and balanced wind products used by NHC forecasters rely on AMSU soundings on board NOAA POES and Metop satellites. NOAA-19 was the last POES pm orbiting satellite and capabilities from this orbit have a finite lifetime. • Define how product development addresses shortfalls • Generalizing the current algorithms to utilize the temperature profile retrievals from next generation polar orbiting satellite microwave instruments (i.e., NPP ATMS) will ensure data and operation continuity. • Impact if project is not funded • Disruptions to AMSU sounding data will result in disruptions of these TC guidance products used by NHC and JTWC. The improved capabilities ATMS will not be fully utilized by NHC and JTWC operations.

    7. Algorithm Status and Approach (1/2) 7 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 • Define algorithm maturity • NOAA-15/16/17 AMSU-based Intensity and wind radii algorithms have been running operationally at NCEP since 2003. Algorithm and validation details are provided in: • Demuth, J., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Improvement of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size Estimation Algorithms, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45, 1573-1581. • Demuth, J., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff and T. H. Vonder Haar, 2004: Validation of an advanced microwave sounder unit (AMSU) tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithm, J. App. Met., 43, 282-296. • NOAA-15/16/17 AMSU-based balanced wind algorithms have been running operationally since 2005. Algorithm and validation details are provided in: • Bessho, K., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Tropical cyclone wind retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit: Application to Surface Wind Analysis. J. Appl. Meteor. and Clim., 45,399-415. • The algorithm will be updated to use the operational MIRS sounding products instead of the Goldberg/Barnett statistical retrievals. The evaluation of the change is undergoing through a CIRA cal/val project, which should be completed before this project starts. Using the MIRS sounding retrievals will eliminate duplication of effort and improve product reliability

    8. Algorithm Status and Approach (2/2) 8 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 • Overview of technical approach of the algorithm and its implementation • Product will be implemented at NESDIS as part of the MIRS processing to take advantage of existing polar satellite data flows and 24 x 7 support of satellite retrievals. • Ancillary data: official TC positions, and 100-mb heights from NCEP GFS. • Algorithms use hydrostatic balance and statistical analysis to estimate intensity and wind radii. Mean-layer winds are obtained by solving equations for non-linear balance. • Concept of operations: The ATMS TC products will utilize the MIRS ATMS products and implemented as a Level-3 sub-system loosely attached to the operational MIRS products system framework to take advantage of existing polar satellite data flows and 24 x 7 operational monitoring support that have established at NESDIS. • Briefly describe the validation concept • ATMS-derived products will be compared to AMSU-derived products. Hurricane flight reconnaissance intensities and wind radii will be used as ground-truth for validation. • Performance on ATMS is expected to exceed current AMSU products due to improved horizontal resolution

    9. IT System Architectures for NPP TC Products ESPC DDS NDE/ESPC IT Environment NHC NPP ATMS TC products MIRS ATMS retrievals ATMS TC positions NCEP GFS, ATCF TC positions ATCF NDE Linux “System Test” NDE AIX “Production ” NDE Linux “Development” NDE Linux “Production ” NPP ATMS TC Products QC Monitoring R2O Archive CLASS/NCDC ESPC TC “CIRA Linux Server” Input Data Includes: MIRS ATMS temperature profile retrievals, ATCF TC positions, GFS analyses 9 9 V2.1 Jun 2010

    10. Research and Operational System Environments Red font indicates new IT resource requirements for this project Blue font indicates existing IT resources will be used for this project 10 V16.0 July 2010

    11. Operational Agency System Requirements Red font indicates new IT resource requirements for this project Blue font indicates existing IT resources will be used for this project V16.0 July 2010

    12. Plan of Operations (1/2) 12 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 • Product Retirement Plan • No product retirement is planned at this time. This product can run in parallel to AMSU-based products. • Archive Plan • The TC intensity/structure products will be provided to NHC as a text bulletin in Automated Tropical Cyclone Format (ATCF) and will be archived there (same as current AMSU products). • TC balanced winds products will be archived at NCDC, and a Data Submission Agreement will be developed for it. • Local archive requires to keep three day worth of data for real-time use • Long Term Maintenance Plan • 8 x 5 science support provided by STAR/RAMMB personnel. • 24 x 7 technical support of input data flow, internet distribution, and basic product operation to be provided by OSPO personnel. • Quality Monitoring Plan • STAR/RAMMB: • Monitoring and validating the products quality • The intensity/wind radii estimates will be added to the ATCF system where they can routinely be compared with similar estimates from other platforms. This can be done by STAR/RAMMB in coordination with SAB. Real time monitoring and feedback can also be obtained from NHC. • The nonlinear balance winds are input to the Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis system that will be operational at NESDIS, which includes automated input quality control that can be leveraged to routinely monitor the nonlinear balance winds

    13. Plan of Operations (2/2) 13 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 • Quality Monitoring Plan (cont) • OSPO • Monitoring the data flow and processing status through NDE GUI interface 24/7 and automated anomaly detection through email notification. • Monitoring the products generation, timeliness and distribution status, and also inspecting imagery during normal business hours to detect anomalies and monitor long term stability/accuracy of products • Documentation/Metadata Plan • STAR will lead the development of the SPSRB required documents, including ATBD. • NDE and OSPO will provide assistant on the operational related sections as indicated in the document templates. • User Involvement Plan • Feedback regarding accuracy, timeliness, and comparisons with AMSU-based products will be solicited from NHC forecasters.

    14. Project Milestones and Key Tasks 14 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 Product Delivery/Tracking Name: NPP microwave sounder-based tropical cyclone products • MAY 11 (MAY 11) (MAY 11): Development Phase Begins • MAY 11: IPT Lead informed to begin product development • MAY 11: Begin adapting current AMSU algorithms to MIRS retrieval datasets • OCT 11: NPP launch, begin collecting ATMS radiance data when available for global tropical cyclones • JUL 12: Begin collecting MIRS ATMS soundings and limb corrected ATMS brightness temperatures, for global tropical cyclones (sample cases, real-time ingest expected Oct 2012) • JUL 12: Initial Archive Requirements identified • JUL 12: Quality Monitoring Concept Defined • JUL 12: Long-term Maintenance Concept Defined • JUL 12: Preliminary Design Review • AUG 12: Development processing system defined • OCT 12: Test case processed • FEB 13: Critical Design Review • FEB 13: Final Archive requirements identified • MAR 13: Develop pre-ops retrieval algorithms (using 3+ months ATMS sounding data) • MAR 13: Code is prepared for implementation • MAY 13: Software Code Review • MAY 13: Deliver Algorithm Package to NDE • MAY 13 (MAR 13) (MAR 13): Pre-operational Phase Begins • MAY 13: The TC DAP tested and evaluated within NDE SADIE, algorithm adjustment made • JUN 13: TC products run on the NDE System Integration for 2013 Atlantic hurricane season • JUL 13: Code transitions to operations; all documentation is complete • JUL 13: Brief SPSRB Oversight Panel(s) on product status • JUL 13: Brief SPSRB capability is ready to go operational • AUG 13 (AUG 13) (AUG 13): Operational Phase Begins • AUG 13: SPSRB declares product operational • SPSRB Secretaries/manager update the SPSRB product metrics web pages • OSD updates Satellite Products database

    15. FY13 Product Deliverable Details 15 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 N=New E=Enhanced R=Replacement T=Tailored O=Other

    16. Funding (K) NPP microwave sounder-based tropical cyclone products 16 V14.2 12 Jan 2010

    17. FY11 Purchases and Tasks 17 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 • (75K of OSD Gnd Sys – NPP Products): CIRA STAR Grant for 1 research associate at 50% time from MAY 2011 to APR 2012 and 1 IT person at 30% time from MAY 2011 to APR 2012. • Begin adapting AMSU algorithms to use MIRS temperature profile retrievals • NPP launch in Oct 2011 – begin collecting ATMS radiance data when available for global tropical cyclones • Coordinate with the MIRS group on the availability of ATMS temperature profile retrievals (MIRS DAP delivered Nov/Dec 2012, real-time ingest should be available soon thereafter) • Collect ATMS soundings and limb corrected ATMS brightness temperatures for global tropical cyclones and adapt retrieval algorithm

    18. FY12 Purchases and Tasks 18 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 • (80K of JPSS NPP Products): CIRA STAR Grant for 1 research associate at 50% time from MAY 2012 to APR 2013 and 1 IT person at 30% time from MAY 2012 to APR 2013. • Collect ATMS soundings and limb corrected ATMS brightness temperatures for global tropical cyclones and adapting retrieval algorithm • Perform Preliminary Review • Critical Design Review • Operation Code Review • Develop the NPP TC DAP for integration to the NDE • Develop final algorithm using 3+ months ATMS soundings, process test case • Deliver algorithm package to NDE • (20K of JPSS NPP Products): OSPO Software Contractor for 1 senior programmer at 15% time (12 months) from MAY 2012 to APR 2013 • Work with the NDE team to conduct the capacity planning • Work with the NDE team to develop the transition plan • Provide support to PDR, CDR • Work with CIRA and NDE to prepare Submission Agreement with NCDC • Lead the Code Review effort • Work with the NDE team to prepare for integrating the NPP TC products into the NDE

    19. FY13 Purchases and Tasks 19 V14.2 12 Jan 2010 • (25K of JPSS NPP Products): CIRA STAR Grant for 1 research associate at 50% time from MAY 2013 to AUG 2013 and 1 IT person at 50% time from MAY 2013 to AUG 2013. • Evaluate preoperational test results and make final adjustments to algorithm to prepare for operations • Help with implementation of operational code at NESDIS. • Prepare SPSRB required documentation. • (35Kof JPSS NPP Products): OSPO Software Contractor for 1 senior programmer at 85% time (4 months) from MAY 2013 to AUG 2013. • Assistant on implementing the NPP TC products into operation at NDE • Testing and evaluation of integration • Operational Readiness Review • Work with CIRA and NDE to accomplish the required documents • Develop the operation procedures for monitoring and maintenances • Develop the monitoring tools for the NPP TC products