Prospects for Industrial Relations
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Prospects for Industrial Relations in the Broader Public Sector John O’Grady. Four Questions:. What are the underlying changes in economic conditions and the fiscal situation of the Ontario government? Are they structural or cyclical?. Four Questions:.

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Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Prospects for Industrial Relations

in the Broader Public Sector

John O’Grady


Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Four Questions:

What are the underlying changes in economic conditions and the fiscal situation of the Ontario government? Are they structural or cyclical?


Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Four Questions:

What are the underlying changes in economic conditions and the fiscal situation of the Ontario government? Are they structural or cyclical?

If those changes are structural, what are their likely implications for the employment environment in the Broader Public Sector?


Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Four Questions:

What are the underlying changes in economic conditions and the fiscal situation of the Ontario government? Are they structural or cyclical?

If those changes are structural, what are their likely implications for the employment environment in the Broader Public Sector?

Can the expected changes in the employment environment be addressed by the existing labour relations system?


Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Four Questions:

What are the underlying changes in economic conditions and the fiscal situation of the Ontario government? Are they structural or cyclical?

If those changes are structural, what are their likely implications for the employment environment in the Broader Public Sector?

Can those changes in the employment environment be addressed by the existing labour relations system?

If changes in the labour relations system are needed, what are the options?



Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Ontario:

Real GDP – Manufacturing, 1997-2011


Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Ontario:

Real GDP – Manufacturing,1997-2011



Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Average Annual Increases Rate,1997-2011

in Government Spending:

2010-11 to 2017-18


Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Implications for Rate,1997-2011

the BPS Employment Environment

Employment reductions.


Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Implications for Rate,1997-2011

the BPS Employment Environment

Employment reductions.

Increased public sector employer opposition to restrictions on redeployment rights of public sector managers (seniority, posting).


Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Implications for Rate,1997-2011

the BPS Employment Environment

Employment reductions.

Increased public sector employer opposition to restrictions on redeployment rights of public sector managers (seniority, posting).

Increased public sector employer resistance to open-ended pensions and liabilities.


Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Implications for Rate,1997-2011

the BPS Employment Environment

Employment reductions.

Increased public sector employer opposition to restrictions on redeployment rights of public sector managers (seniority, posting).

Increased public sector employer resistance to open-ended pensions and liabilities.

Increased public sector employer resistance to pattern-based wage determination.


Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Implications for Rate,1997-2011

the BPS Employment Environment

Employment reductions.

Increased public sector employer opposition to restrictions on redeployment rights of public sector managers (seniority, posting).

Increased public sector employer resistance to open-ended pensions and liabilities.

Increased public sector employer resistance to pattern-based wage determination.

Increased attraction to contracting out and divestment and increased opposition to restrictions that impede these.


Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

Eras of Restraint Rate,1997-2011

  • 1975 – 1978: Wage and Price Controls

  • 1981 – 1982: Public Sector Wage Controls (‘6 and 5’)

  • 1993 – 1995: Social Contract

    • wage freeze / 12 ‘Rae Days’

    • 1993-94: 2.3% cut

    • 1994-95: 0.8% increase

  • 1995 – 1999: Harris Cuts:

    • 1996-97: 3.3% cut

    • 1997-98: 0.3% increase


  • Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

    Changes in the System Rate,1997-2011

    More centralized bargaining.


    Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

    Changes in the System Rate,1997-2011

    More centralized bargaining.

    Addressing the self-referential bias of public sector arbitration.


    Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

    Changes in the System Rate,1997-2011

    More centralized bargaining.

    Addressing the self-referential bias of public sector arbitration.

    Limited liability for benefits and pensions.


    Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

    Changes in the System Rate,1997-2011

    More centralized bargaining.

    Addressing the self-referential bias of public sector arbitration.

    Limited liability for benefits and pensions.

    Integration of pension bargaining with wage bargaining.


    Prospects for industrial relations in the broader public sector john o grady

    Changes in the System Rate,1997-2011

    More centralized bargaining.

    Addressing the self-referential bias of public sector arbitration.

    Limited liability for benefits and pensions.

    Integration of pension bargaining with wage bargaining.

    Greater flexibility on re-deployment (overriding seniority and posting)

    Fewer impediments to contracting out and divesting.