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Climate Forecast System Development Progress Update

Get insights into the present status of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) development. Explore forecasts, calibration, skills, ensemble models, and ongoing projects aimed at improving accuracy and filling in forecast gaps. Learn about partnerships and future plans for upgrading the CFS model.

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Climate Forecast System Development Progress Update

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  1. Present Status of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) • Twice daily 9-months forecasts making a monthly ensemble of 40-60 members. • 15-member reforecasts per month 1981 – 2005 • Calibration • Skill estimate • Analog and statistical forecasts • Products available on operational servers and on CPC and CTB web sites

  2. CFS development work in progress • 5-year 4-times daily 60-day forecasts using a 100-km version of the CFS 2000 – 2004 for 2+ months for summer and winter • Look for useful products to fill the forecast gap between week2 and seasonal. • NCO computer resource allocated • Toward a seamless suite of products • Multi-model ensemble • Test run the GFDL model, toward ESMF • GMAO very interested in participating in ESMF and reforecast • Working with COLA to get NCAR interested

  3. CFS model development • Sensitivity experiments with newer versions of the GFS (CMIP) • Sensitivity experiments with the new land model of the GFS (reforecasts) • CTB sponsored sensitivity experiments • MOM4 tests plus new sea-ice model. Both in higher resolution • Efficient coupler is nearly ready and will reduce computer resource demands • Making better use of the CFS forecasts (PNA, MJO, NAO, analogs)

  4. Plan and challenge • Look for improved model (for ENSO and North America predictions) in 2006-2007 to start the next upgrade of the CFS, With help from CTB, work on improved products from the CFS • Look for resources (cpus, disks, people) for the reanalysis and reforecast to be completed in 2007-2008 in time for 2008 upgrade of the CFS • Accelerate model improvements through CTB funding for future CFS upgrades • Reanalysis was the weak link (tropics); Need Reanalysis with each model upgrade.

  5. 15-member CFS reforecasts

  6. 15-member CFS reforecasts

  7. 15-member CFS reforecasts 15-member CFS reforecasts

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