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Energy Challenge: Overview & Technology Issues

Energy Challenge: Overview & Technology Issues. National Space Grant Directors Meeting 27 October 2008. Sam V. Shelton, Ph.D. Strategic Energy Institute Georgia Institute of Technology. 1960’s U.S. Space Initiative. Created Generation of Engineers & Scientiest I am a Product of Sputnik:

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Energy Challenge: Overview & Technology Issues

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  1. Energy Challenge:Overview & Technology Issues National Space Grant Directors Meeting 27 October 2008 Sam V. Shelton, Ph.D. Strategic Energy Institute Georgia Institute of Technology

  2. 1960’s U.S. Space Initiative • Created Generation of Engineers & Scientiest • I am a Product of Sputnik: • Graduate School on National Defense Education Act • First Career Position • Jet Propulsion Laboratory: Research Engineer

  3. Energy & The Economy

  4. Oil Price Increase • 01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008 • 22 Percent per Year Average

  5. Coal Price Increase • 01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008 • 20 Percent per Year Average

  6. Natural Gas Price Increase • 01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008 • 15 Percent per Year Average

  7. Energy Burden on Economy • US Energy Expenditures as % of GDP • 2004: 3% • 2008: 7% • Energy Costs Created Current Economic Crisis? • “The Oil Factor”, 2004, Stephen Leeb

  8. Energy Challenge

  9. Energy Drivers Working Together • Economics • Environment • Fossil Fuel Production Limitations • National Security

  10. Environment and Energy

  11. U.S. Natural Energy Resources Use

  12. U.S. Oil Demand & Production

  13. Imports Production US Oil Production & UtilizationEIA Annual Energy Report (1949-2006) Consumption Production

  14. Actual Projected U.S. Oil Production with ANWR

  15. World Oil Production

  16. World Oil Production PeakingPredicted: 2006 - 2015

  17. World Oil Peaking is Driving Oil Prices UP 2006 Predictions: $100 per Barrel Oil Predicted by end of 2010

  18. U.S. Dependence on Foreign OilNational Security& Economic Issues

  19. Supplier of Last Resort

  20. Saudi Arabia 20% Canada 14% Iran 10% Iraq 9% Kuwait 8% UAE 7% Venezuela 6% Russia 5% Libya 3% Nigeria 3% Kazakhstan 2% U.S. 2% U.S. 25% China 8% Japan 7% Germany 3% Russia 3% India 3% Canada 3% South Korea 3% Brazil 3% France 2% Mexico 2% Italy 2% Have Oil Use Oil EIA 2007 CIA Factbook 2007 The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest consuming nations combined.

  21. Foreign Energy Tax • National Balance of Payments • $1 Billion per DAY Going Out of US for Oil • U.S. Energy Policy Could be Stated As: “Leave No Saudi Prince or Iranian Mula Behind.”

  22. Oil DemandPrimarily Transportation

  23. Transportation is the Oil Issue • Very Large Transportation Fleet • Huge Investment in Fleet • Evolves Very Slowly • 17 Years to Replace 50% of Vehicles

  24. Vehicle Efficiency Improvements • Change Vehicle Culture • Smaller Cars • Hybrid Vehicles • Turbo Diesels Engines • Plug In Hybrids • All Electric Cars • ALL HAVE IMPACT IN ~2025 • IF WE START SELLING THEM NOW

  25. Is Aviation Fuel Inefficient?

  26. Rutan Long EZ

  27. Space Ship I

  28. Space Ship I Landing

  29. Natural Gas Supplies N. American Gas Demand Exceeding N. American Gas Production

  30. U.S. Natural Gas Production

  31. Importing Natural Gas • LNG Imports • Liquified • -260F • Same as Oil Imports • Paid with Foreign Held Debt • National Security • Costly to Transport

  32. Electric Power Plants

  33. Electricity Uses Very Little Oil Fuel Type Use for Electric Power

  34. Oil & Electric Power • New Nuclear/Wind/Solar Electric Power Will Save No Significant Oil • Oil Use is 2% of Current Electric Fuel • Electric Cars can be Charged from Current Non-Oil Night Base Load Plants

  35. Conventional Power Plant Issues • Coal Fired Power Plants • Coal Mining Environmental Impact • Air Quality • Nuclear Power Plants • Economics: High Construction Cost • High Level Radioactive Waste • Hydro • Environmental Impact - Permitting Issues • Natural Gas Power Plants • Environmentally Relatively Clean • High Cost of Natural Gas-Economics • National Security: Importing LNG

  36. Comparison of Levelized Costs

  37. MeetingNew Electric Power Demand

  38. New Power Plant Technologies • New Generation Nuclear Plants • Permits being Prepared for 2017 Start Up • Capital Cost is Uncertain • Waste Fuel Disposal is Issue: Yucca Mountain??? • Coal Gasification with Combined Cycle • Higher Efficiency use of Coal (40% vs 35%) • Coal Strip Mining Environmental Impact • A Winning Coal Technology with CO2 Limits

  39. (cont) New Power Plant Technologies • Wind Energy • Cost can be Competitive with Conventional: • 6 to 8 cents/kWhr • Permitting is Issue • Solar Photovoltaics (PV) • High Cost: • Silicon Technology:30 to 50 cents/kWhr • Better Economics predicted since 1970’s • Good for Off Grid

  40. Economics of RenewableElectrical Power Technologies

  41. “Change” PV Technology • Thin Film PV Technology • First Solar • www.spectrum.ieee.org • Nanosolar • www.nanosolar.com • Reduced PV Power into Grid from $0.40/kW to $0.25/kW?

  42. (cont) Conclusions • Oil is Near Term Problem: • Supply vs. Demand • Electric Power Technology will Not Impact Oil • Economics is Prime Technology Driving Force • PV has Potential for Change Technology

  43. Potential Solutions

  44. Technology is Core • Solutions are Diverse • Thousands of Technology Improvements • Public Policy to Avoid Disruptions • Economic, Social, International

  45. Long Term Electric Power Space Power Recent Thin Film PV Technolgy Moves the Ball Forward

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