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The GAIA Hypothesis and it‘s role in Earth System Modelling

The GAIA Hypothesis and it‘s role in Earth System Modelling. The release of this image had an effect in leading to the proposition that the Earth is alive. Quelle: Wikipedia. GCM – 1. Semester: Physical Fundamentals of GC, Juliane Gnau.

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The GAIA Hypothesis and it‘s role in Earth System Modelling

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  1. The GAIA Hypothesis and it‘s role in Earth System Modelling The release of this image had an effect in leading to the proposition that the Earth is alive. Quelle: Wikipedia GCM – 1. Semester: Physical Fundamentals of GC, Juliane Gnau

  2. The GAIA Hypothesis and it‘s role in Earth System Modelling Content • Earth System Science • Earth System Modelling • The GAIA Hypothesis • Recent research • “Official proof of acceptance”

  3. Earth System Science •  … treats the entire Earth as a system • this system evolves as a result of positive and negative feedbacks between many different systems • gives scientists the ability to explain the past and possible future behaviour of the Earth system ms: See the comlete version of the so-called Bretherton Diagram(Francis P. Bretherton, 1986)

  4. What is Earth System Modelling? Interacting components on the environment are modeled in unison to understand how feedbacks between the components influence the properties of the whole system. Quelle: Max-Planck-Institut Gaia theories explain the behaviour of the Earth system in terms of the influence of the biosphere

  5. Development of Earth System Modelling Quelle: Max-Planck-Institut, verändert ms: That is only half the truth. It shows only the natural systems approach to climate modelling. The whole Earth System Modelling would comprise the socio-economic modelling as well, like: world economic system, national and international institutions and actors, ….

  6. Goals of Earth System Modelling • to predict the future of the planet Earth • instrument to take appropriate actions in the future within the framework of future management of the Earth

  7. The GAIA Hypothesis James Lovelock‘s definition: a complex entity involving the Earth's biosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and soil; the totality constituting a feedback or cybernetic system which seeks an optimal physical and chemical environment for life on this planet

  8. The Initial Hypothesis • biomass modifies conditions on planet • hospitality = homeostasis • homeostatic feedback system • operated by the biota • leads to stabilization of global temperature and chemical composition Global control system: • surface temperature • atmospheric composition • ocean salinity

  9. The Development of the Hypothesis • 1960: Ecological theory: the Earth as an organism • Core assumption of hypothesis: „Lives of a cell“ • Scientifically formulated by J. Lovelock • Supported by scientific experiments • + providing useful predictions  Theory • 1972: "Gaia as seen through the atmosphere" • Until 1975 almost totally ignored • 1979: book “Gaia: A new look at life on Earth”

  10. The Development of the Hypothesis • Acception took many years • 1980’s: still confusion what the GAIA theory really is • Criticism: • view is too theological • lack of scientific evidence • GAIA is not a living organism History

  11. The Development of the Hypothesis • response to criticism = math. Daisyworld  • proof for existance of feedback mechanisms • Lovelock‘s reframing as geophysiology • growing acceptance of Earth System Science •  silenced many critics History

  12. Recent developments • Gaia Theory has developed considerably • 1998 book: “The Symbiotic Planet”(L. Margulis) •  "Gaia is not an organism", but "an emergent property of interaction among organisms". • New definition: “…the series of interacting ecosystems that compose a single huge ecosystem at the Earth's surface.“ • both theories are valid today

  13. The GAIA Hypothesis • two GAIA Conferences • 1988: the Gaian teological views or "types" of Gaia Theory • 2000: specific mechanisms: Recent developments • has Gaia changed in time? • how can the feedbacks influence the climate? • how can mechanisms be modeled?

  14. The GAIA Hypothesis - Summary • the Gaia hypothesis ismodified • biosphere = ecosystem • the Gaia hypothesis is consistent with a modern vision of global ecology, relaying on the concepts of biosphere and biodiversity  • not a theory anymore (?) • part of Earth System Science • scientific model in geo-biosphere • non-scientists: self-regulating Earth Today ms: In common usage, people often use the word theory to signify a conjecture, an opinion, or a speculation. In science however, a theory is a proposed description, explanation, or model of the manner of interaction of a set of natural phenomena, capable of predicting future occurrences or observations!

  15. The GAIA Hypothesis • modelling real biochemical cycles of Earth  • Daisyworld-like regulation • today: simple feedback mechanisms accepted •  carbon dioxide • more difficult homeostatic mechanisms ? •  planetary albedo More recent research

  16. “Official proof of acceptance“ • Amsterdam declaration of the scientific communities of 4 international global change research programmes: • threat of significant climate change • increasing human modification of global environment • findings and statements seem to be fully consistent with the Gaia theory More recent research The Earth System behaves as a single, self-regulating system comprised of physical, chemical, biological and human components.

  17. “Official proof of acceptance“ “The interactions and feedbacks between the component parts are complex and exhibit multi-scale temporal and spatial variability.” “Global change cannot be understood in terms of a simple cause-effect paradigm. Human-driven changes cause multiple effects that cascade through the Earth System in complex ways.” More recent research “These effects interact with each other and with local- and regional-scale changes in multidimensional patterns that are difficult to understand and even more difficult to predict.”

  18. The GAIA Hypothesis and it‘s role in Earth System Modelling Thank you for listening ms:Richard Mabey reviews The revenge of Gaia by James Lovelock: “After Hurricane Katrina, a black Gaian joke went the rounds, couched in White House newspeak: Successful mission against the Gulf of Mexico oilfields. Some collateral damage in New Orleans.” • Sources: • Wikipedia • Max-Planck-Institut • http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/nutshell/index.html

  19. Comments for Juliane Gnau from Manfred Stock • To be finished .....

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