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The Continued Rise of China and India: Possible Implications for Global Oil Markets

The Continued Rise of China and India: Possible Implications for Global Oil Markets . Jeff Brown Oil Industry & Markets Division International Energy Agency. Why Do We Care?. Incremental Growth—Drives the Market. Chinese Oil Imports.

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The Continued Rise of China and India: Possible Implications for Global Oil Markets

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  1. The Continued Rise of China and India: Possible Implications for Global Oil Markets Jeff Brown Oil Industry & Markets Division International Energy Agency

  2. Why Do We Care?

  3. Incremental Growth—Drives the Market

  4. Chinese Oil Imports

  5. Global Demand Growth 2004/2005/2006thousand barrels per day

  6. Oil Demand Compared

  7. Oil Demand Growth Compared

  8. Key Trends: Rapid Growth in Trade-Related Oil Demand • There is evidence that the movement of labour-intensive production overseas accelerated with emergence of China as a low-cost manufacturing base. • This move has had an impact on oil demand: • Chinese demand for marine bunkers increased 50% in 2004 • Container traffic in key Chinese and US ports has boomed • US Trucking Tonnage Index increased 5.7% in 2004

  9. Can China Continue on a High Growth Path? There are Precedents… • In many ways China’s recent take-off mirrors the Korea and Chinese Taipei demand growth of 1980-1997. • Although China’s 2000 per capita income (adjusted for purchasing power) is similar to Korea and Chinese Taipei in 1980, it consumes much less oil per capita than they did at the time.

  10. Korea Oil Demand Volatility • Korea’s oil demand was very volatile during its high growth years • Yet from a global perspective the impact was relatively minor (except for 1998)

  11. Chinese Taipei Oil Demand Volatility • The situation is somewhat similar for Chinese Taipei

  12. Chinese Oil Demand Volatility • China’s recent growth experience is quite similar to Korea and Chinese Taipei • However, due to its sheer size, China’s impact on the global oil market is obviously much larger

  13. Global Implications of China/India as Growth Leaders? • Potential for a rapid rise in oil demand, as often discussed. • Likelihood of more volatile demand growth as Asian economies develop. • Depending on what happens on the supply side, increased price volatility.

  14. State-run Companies Shifting Emphasis Overseas Both are pursuing overseas…India has often lost out

  15. Feb 2004 President Hu visited Egypt, Gabon and Algeria. • Investment agreements were signed with Egypt and Algeria and China started importing oil from Gabon.

  16. Implications for Africa Good? • Likely some benefits for oil exporters • Chinese and Indian companies…possibly overspending? • Recent agreement to limit competition • Appear to have a lower investment hurdle than international oil companies • More willing to go to risky/politically sensitive areas? Bad? • Likely higher, more volatile prices with growing demand

  17. Thank You

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