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GLOBAL LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW. Randy Smith SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH. Global Occupancy September Year-To-Date. +1.1 %. Global ADR September Year-To-Date. +7.8 %. U.S. Industry Analysis. Total U.S. Monthly Room Supply – Seasonally Adjusted January 1989 to September 2006. 4.5 Million Rooms.
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GLOBAL LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Randy SmithSMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH
Total U.S.Monthly Room Supply – Seasonally AdjustedJanuary 1989 to September 2006 4.5 Million Rooms 3.1 Million Rooms CAGR 0.5% CAGR 3.5% CAGR – 1.97%
Total United StatesRoom Supply Percent ChangeJan 2002 – September 2006
Total U.S.Monthly Room Demand – Seasonally AdjustedJanuary 1989 to September 2006 2.6% Peak CAGR – 2.7% CAGR – 2.03%
Total United StatesRoom Demand Percent ChangeJan 2002 – September 2006 38 Consecutive Months of Demand Growth
Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to September 2006 5.1% 4.0% 4.2% 3.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.6%
Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeMonthly Year-Over-Year 2001 – September 2006
Total United StatesOccupancy PercentTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to September 2006 64.9% Sep 06 63.6% 63.3% Feb 2001 1995 & 1996 61.9 % December 1991 58.5% Aug 02 & May 03
Total United StatesOccupancy Percent ChangeJan 2002 – September 2006
Total United StatesAverage Daily RateTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to September 2006 $95.64 Sep 06 Peak CAGR – 4.4% $86.33 June 2001 $54.94 Jan 1989 Long Term CAGR – 3.1%
Total United StatesRoom Rate Percent ChangeJan 2002 – September 2006
Total United StatesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to September 2006 6.7% Divergence Divergence 1.6%
Total United StatesRoom Demand / ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to September 2006 6.3% 2.0%
Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to September 2006 Feb 01 6.5% 6.5% 8.4% Feb 97 -2.6% Nov 91 -10.6% Jun 02
Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeSeptember YTD
Total United StatesOccupancy Percent 28-Day Moving AverageAugust 5, 2006 – October 21, 2006
Total United StatesADR 28-Day Moving AverageAugust 5, 2006 – October 21, 2006
Total United StatesRevPAR 28-Day Moving AverageAugust 5, 2006 – October 21, 2006
Location SegmentsSupply/Demand Percent ChangeSeptember 2006 YTD
Location SegmentsOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeSeptember 2006 YTD
Key 15 MarketsRoom Supply Percent ChangeSeptember 2006 YTD Year over Year
Key 15 MarketsRoom Demand Percent ChangeSeptember 2006 YTD Year over Year
Key 15 MarketsOccupancy Percent ChangeSeptember 2006 YTD Year over Year
Key 15 MarketsADR Percent ChangeSeptember 2006 YTD Year over Year
Key 15 MarketsRevPAR Percent ChangeSeptember 2006 YTD Year over Year
Asia Pacific MarketsOccupancy / ADR Percent ChangeAugust 2006 YTD
Asia Pacific MarketsRevPAR Percent Change in Local CurrencyAugust 2006 YTD
South America MarketsOccupancy / ADR Percent ChangeAugust 2006 YTD
South America MarketsRevPAR Percent Change in Local CurrencyAugust 2006 YTD
Middle East & Africa MarketsOccupancy / ADR Percent ChangeAugust 2006 YTD
Middle East & Africa MarketsRevPAR Percent Change in Local CurrencyAugust 2006 YTD
Europe MarketsRevPAR Percent Change in Local CurrencyAugust 2006 YTD
London, EnglandRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 2002 to August 2006 7.0% 1.5%
London, EnglandOccupancy, ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 2002 to August 2006 6.7% 5.4%
London, EnglandOccupancy PercentTwelve Month Moving Average – 2001 to August 2006
London, EnglandRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeMonthly Year-Over-Year 2001 – September 2006
London, EnglandOccupancy / ADR Percent ChangeMonthly Year-Over-Year 2001 – September 2006
Total United StatesActive Development Pipeline - RoomsChange From Last Year Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
Total United StatesActive PipelineFirst Quarter 2005 to Third Quarter 2006 11.9% of Existing Supply