1 / 42

US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Mark V. Lomanno President SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2008 5.1% 4.0% 4.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% - 4.8%

JasminFlorian
Download Presentation

US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Mark V. LomannoPresidentSMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH

  2. Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2008 5.1% 4.0% 4.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% - 4.8%

  3. Total United StatesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2008 7.6% 6.8% 5.5% -0.6%

  4. Total United StatesRoom Rate Percent ChangeJan 2003 – March 2008

  5. Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2008 June 06 + 9.3% Feb 01 + 6.5% +4.9%

  6. Total United StatesQuarterly RevPar Percent Change

  7. U.S. IndustryWeekday/Weekend Occupancy ChangeNovember 2007 – February 2008 Weekdays = Sunday - Thursday

  8. Total U.S.Occupancy and ADR Percent ChangeYTD through 4/19

  9. Pennsylvania - Key StatisticsDecember 2007 YTD % Change • Hotels 1,368 1.5% • Room Supply 128k 1.7% • Room Demand 79k 2.7% • Occupancy 62.1% 1.0% • A.D.R. $100.46 6.1% • RevPAR $62.39 7.1% • Room Revenue $2.9B 9.0%

  10. Pennsylvania - Key StatisticsQ1 2008 % Change • Daily Room Supply 129.3k 2.1% • Daily Room Demand 66.6k 0.0% • Occupancy 51.5% - 2.0% • A.D.R. $97.79 4.7% • RevPAR $50.38 2.5% • Room Revenue $586mm 4.7%

  11. PennsylvaniaKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeYTD March

  12. Occupancy Percent Pennsylvania MarketsYTD March 2008 43.9% 49.3% 51.5% 52.6% 52.6% 59.2% 39.4%

  13. Occupancy Percent Change Pennsylvania MarketsYTD March 2008 -0.3% 0.4% -0.3% -0.5% 1.5% -6.2% 4.9%

  14. ADR ($) Pennsylvania MarketsYTD March 2008 $73.74 $98.42 $81.83 $81.23 $95.27 $119.54 $76.91

  15. ADR Percent Change Pennsylvania MarketsYTD March 2008 5.9% -3.1% 6.0% 4.7% 3.4% 7.1% 5.7%

  16. RevPAR Percent Change Pennsylvania MarketsYTD March 2008 5.6% -2.7% 5.7% 4.1% 4.9% 0.5% 10.8%

  17. Chain Scales

  18. STR Chain ScalesSelected chains from each segment • Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont • Upper Upscale – Embassy, Hilton, Marriott, Sheraton • Upscale – Residence Inn, Hilton Garden Inn, Courtyard • Mid with F&B – Quality Inn, Holiday Inn, Ramada • Mid no F&B – Comfort Inn, Hampton Inn, HI Express • Economy – Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn

  19. STR - U.S. Chain ScalesLTM February 2008 Room Revenue Share Total Room Revenue = $108 Billion

  20. Selected Chain Scales12 Month Moving Average - Demand Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – August 2001 Then: Visible Drop in Demand in UU Scale – “Top-Down Recession”

  21. Selected Chain Scales12 Month Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – August 2001 Then: Visible Drop in ADR in Higher End Scales

  22. Selected Chain Scales 12 Month Moving Average Demand Index (Jan 2006 = 100) January 2006 – February 2008 Now: No Slowing In Demand For Upper End – “Bottom Up Recession?”

  23. Selected Chain Scales12 Month Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2006 = 100) January 2006 – February 2008 Now: No Slowing in Rate Growth

  24. U.S. Market Performance

  25. Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets12 Month Moving Average Demand Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – August 2001 Then: Visible Drop in Demand in Top 25 Markets

  26. Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets12 Month Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – August 2001 Then: Visible Drop in ADR in Top 25 Markets

  27. Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets 12 Month Moving Average - Demand Index (Jan 2006 = 100) January 2006 – February 2008 Now: Demand for Top 25 Markets basically Flat

  28. Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets12 Month Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2006 = 100) January 2006 – February 2008 Now: ADR Currently Strong Across The Board

  29. Exchange Rate Impact on 2007 ADR % Change America Is On Sale!

  30. U.S. Pipeline

  31. Total United StatesActive Development Pipeline - RoomsChange From Prior Year Feb 2008 Feb 2007 Change % Chg In Construction 198,244 171,413 26,831 15.7% Active Pipeline 648,882 541,723 107,159 19.8% Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

  32. Average Lengths Under Construction (Months)For Hotels Opening That Year Slight Increase in Construction Time Over Last 2 Years Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

  33. Total United StatesAnnual Rooms Closed and 3 Year Moving Average1990 – 2007

  34. Projections

  35. U.S. Economic OutlookBlue Chip Economic Indicators – April 2008 20072008F2009F Real GDP +2.2% +1.4% +2.2% CPI +2.9% +3.5% +2.4% Corporate Profits +2.7% -2.7% +5.2% Disp Personal Income +3.1% +2.1% +2.1% Unemployment Rate 4.6% 5.3% 5.6%

  36. Total U.S.Supply/Demand Percent Change2002 – 2008P

  37. Total U.S.Occupancy Percent Change2002 – 2008P 20 Year Average: -0.1%

  38. Total USOccupancy Percent2002 – 2008P

  39. Total U.S.ADR Percent Change2002 – 2008P 20 Year Average: 3.5%

  40. Total U.S.RevPAR Percent Change2002 – 2008P 20 Year Average: 3.4%

  41. 2008 Lodging Industry Takeaways • Accelerating Supply Growth – Pipeline Attrition? • Slowing Economy = Slower Demand Growth • Top Markets may outperform • Weak Dollar = U.S. Bargain • Leisure feels greater impact than business? • Revenue Management Discipline?

More Related