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Deaths from smoking

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  1. Deaths from smoking in Estonia

  2. Deaths from smokingin Estonia • Particular emphasis is given to the number of deathsin middle age (defined as ages 35 to 69) • Available on www.deathsfromsmoking.net • This presentation provides estimates of the number of deaths caused by smoking in Estonia

  3. Source of data: “Mortality from Smoking in Developed Countries, 1950–2000” • Uses WHO mortality data for lung cancer and for other diseases, and UN population data • Updated edition of a 1994 book, authored by an international team of scientists: – Richard Peto, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Oxford – Alan Lopez, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Queensland – Jillian Boreham, Senior Research Fellow, University of Oxford – Michael Thun, Chief of Epidemiology, American Cancer Society www.deathsfromsmoking.net

  4. Estonia Deaths from smoking, 1980 to 2000 • About 73% (40,000) of them were still in middleagewhen they died • This was about one in four of all the deaths inmiddle age during this period (40,000 out ofthe 160,000 deaths at ages 35-69) • About 55,000 people died from smoking during this 20-year period in Estonia www.deathsfromsmoking.net

  5. Estonia, year 2000 Annual deaths from smoking • About 1,700 die in middle age from smoking • Many of those killed in middle age would have lived on for 10, 20, 30 or more good years • About 20 years of life are lost, on average, by those killed in middle age by smoking • Smoking kills about 2,800 people a year in Estonia www.deathsfromsmoking.net

  6. 2,800smoking 2,092*non-medical Murder/assault Falls Suicide Drowning Road accidents Poisoning Plane crashes Fires Train crashes Floods/storms Accidents at work Other natural disasters Accidents at home Other accidents *in year 2000 Estonia, year 2000 Smoking causes more deaths than all non-medical causes put together www.deathsfromsmoking.net

  7. 900cancer* 1,300vascular (heart disease, stroke and other diseases of the arteries and veins) 300respiratory 300other *includes 600 (87%) ofthe 687 lung cancer deaths Estonia, year 2000 Smoking kills 2,800 people a year,from many different diseases www.deathsfromsmoking.net

  8. 900 (26%)from smoking 3,400total cancer deaths 800 (44%)from smoking 1,800male 100 (6%) from smoking 1,600female Estonia, year 2000 About one in four of all cancer deathsis due to smoking www.deathsfromsmoking.net

  9. Male deaths in middle age from smoking • This pattern is seen first in middle age, then in old age • The next three slides concentrate on male deathsin middle age • The main pattern of increase and, eventually, decrease in premature deaths from smoking is at a more advanced stage among men than among women www.deathsfromsmoking.net

  10. Estonia, year 2000 About one in three of all deaths inmiddle-aged men is due to smoking* *1,600 (32%) of the5,000 deaths at ages 35-69 www.deathsfromsmoking.net

  11. • 51 die in middle age* • 17 of these 51 deaths are from smoking 17 51% *risks at year 2000death rates for ages 35-69 Estonia, year 2000 Of 100 men aged 35 years … www.deathsfromsmoking.net

  12. Smoking All causes 1985199019952000 48% 17 51% 19 58% 20 51% 17 *risks at period-specificdeath rates for ages 35-69 Estonia, 1985-2000 Male death in middle age: changing hazards* www.deathsfromsmoking.net

  13. Estonia, year 2000 Summary for the whole population In Estonia: • Smoking kills about 2,800 men and women every year • About 1,700 die in middle age from smoking • Smoking causes more deaths than all non-medical causes put together • About one in four of all cancer deaths is due to smoking www.deathsfromsmoking.net

  14. Messages for the individual smoker • Those killed in middle age lose many years • Stopping smoking works • Even in early middle age, those who stop (before they have lung cancer or some other fatal disease) avoid most of their risk of being killed by tobacco • Stopping before middle age works even better • The risk is big: about half are killed www.deathsfromsmoking.net

  15. Deaths from smoking:an electronic resource • www.deathsfromsmoking.net • Published by • International Union Against Cancer (UICC), Geneva: Switzerland, 2006 • Funded by • Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit (CTSU), University of Oxford • International Union Against Cancer (UICC) • Fogarty International Center, US NIH • UK Medical Research Council • Cancer Research UK • Project team Richard Peto, Judith Watt, Jillian Boreham • Project management Sinéad Jones • Advice and support Steve Woodward, Konrad Jamrozik, Lesley Walker, Trish Cotter • Design bwa-design.co.uk