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Activity Modeling Initiatives. Ken Cervenka, P.E., AICP North Central Texas Council Of Governments For AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting Berkeley, California September 8, 2005. “MPO Coalition” Activity Model Listserv. Mission Statement:

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activity modeling initiatives

Activity Modeling Initiatives

Ken Cervenka, P.E., AICP

North Central Texas Council Of Governments

For

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting

Berkeley, California

September 8, 2005

mpo coalition activity model listserv
“MPO Coalition”Activity Model Listserv

Mission Statement:

“MPO Coalition for the Examination and Advancement

of Activity-Based Models for Use in Transportation

Planning Applications”

27 MPOs (97 Million People) Are Represented

46% Of All MPO Population

34% Of Total U.S. Population

8 MPOs (34 Million People) With Some Direct Activity

Model Involvement

activity model listserv and related web sites
Activity Model ListservAnd Related Web Sites

Listserv: Activity_Model@yahoogroups.com

MTC’s FTP Site:

ftp://198.31.87.7/pub/mtc/planning/activity_model/

NCTCOG’s “Next Generation Modeling” Pagehttp://www.nctcog.org/trans/modeling/Next_Generation.html

TMIP’s Clearinghouse Page

http://tmip.fhwa.dot.gov/clearinghouse/browse/

trb initial state of the practice survey results mpos considering activity tour models
TRB Initial “State Of The Practice” Survey Results: MPOs Considering Activity/Tour Models
  • MPOs < 200,000 Population
  • 22% (Of 100 Responses)
  • MPOs From 200,000 To 1,000,000 Population
  • 21% (Of 63 Responses)
  • MPOs Over One Million Population
  • 43% (Of 28 Responses)
known activity based modeling work slide 1
Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 1)

SACOG (Sacramento Area Council Of Governments)

Phase 1 Development Underway

Consultant Team = John Bowman and Mark Bradley

DRCOG (Denver Regional Council Of Governments)

Consultant’s Scope Of Work, Budget, And Schedule Are

Being Finalized

Prime = Cambridge Systematics

known activity based modeling work slide 2
Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 2)

NYMTC (New York Metropolitan Transportation

Council)

Recently Used For AQ Conformity Analysis Work

Performing Sensitivity Tests On Value Of Time

At Contractual Stage For Sensitivity Tests By Local University

known activity based modeling work slide 3
Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 3)

MORPC (Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission,

Columbus)

Used For AQ Conformity And All Roadway/Transit Studies

Some Refinements By Original Developer (PB Consult) Underway

AECOM Hired To Review Readiness For New Starts DEIS

Ohio DOT Staff (Rebekah Anderson) Is (Temporarily) Helping

The MPO Out, As They Look For A New Modeler

known activity based modeling work slide 4
Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 4)

Ohio DOT Developing Statewide Tour-Based Model

Prime Consultant = Parsons Brinckerhoff

8-Year Development Program

$6 Million For Data Collection And $2.5 Million For The

Consultant’s Model Development

Interim Model Completed Two Years Ago

Final Model Scheduled For 2006/2007 Completion

known activity based modeling work slide 5
Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 5)

Other Statewide Models With Some Tour-Based Elements

New Hampshire

Michigan

Oregon (Calibration Under Way)

known activity based modeling work slide 6
Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 6)

San Francisco County Model Actively Used Since 2002

Billy Charlton, Principal Transportation Planner

MTC (Metropolitan Transportation Commission)

$250,000 Consultant Contract For Phase 1

Travel Model Specifications

Trip Chaining Procedures

Model Estimation Training

On-Call Model Estimation Oversight

Model Implementation Support

known activity based modeling work slide 7
Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 7)

Portland Metro (Oregon), In-House Development

Used For Pricing Scenarios in 1998/1999

Full Calibration/Validation Was Not Completed

TRANSIMS-Portland

U.S. DOT-Sponsored Development/Testing

Major Consultant Involvement

Expected Completion In 2006

known activity based modeling work slide 8
Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 8)

ARC (Atlanta Regional Commission)

$500,000 Spent Annually For Modeling Services Contract, With

$100,000 Dedicated To Activity-Based Development

Population Synthesizer Is Up And Running

Desired 2007 Activity Model Completion

Expectations For Parallel Two-Track Modeling (For Awhile)

known activity based modeling work slide 9
Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 9)

Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

Existing Tour-Based Microsimulation Model For Commercial

Vehicles

Developing Region-Wide Activity-Based Model For Weekend Travel

Longer-Term Plans For Full Weekday Activity-Based Model

Clark County, Nevada (Las Vegas Area)

Household Microsimulation Travel Demand Model (Caliper)

STEP2—Builds Upon Greig Harvey’s STEP Policy Analysis Tool

For The San Francisco Area

known activity based modeling work slide 10
Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 10)

VISEM Applications (PTV)

Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Beijing, China

Munich And Cologne, Germany

Vienna, Austria

Grenoble And Lille, France

Luxembourg, Luxembourg

known activity based modeling work slide 11
Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 11)

EPA Three-Year Project (2004 STAR B-1)

Paul Waddell As Principal Investigator

Integration Of Land Use And Activity Location Modeling

Project Kicks Off This Month (September 2005)

CEMDAP (Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator

For Generating Daily Activity-Travel Patterns)

University Of Texas At Austin (Chandra Bhat)

TxDOT State Planning Research Funding ($589,100 Spent Since

2001; $135,000 For One-Year Extension)

cemdap work now to august 31 2006
CEMDAP Work(Now To August 31, 2006)

Implement And Test 4874-Zone Activity-Based Model For

The 5,000 Square Mile Dallas-Fort Worth Area

Use NCTCOG Model For Truck Trips And All External Trips

Prepare 1999 And 2025 CEMDAP Model Runs

Year 1999 Validation Checks

Compare 1999 And 2025 Against NCTCOG’s Four-Step Model

Prepare And Document Model Sensitivity Tests

Implement Several Hypothetical Scenarios

Both CEMDAP And NCTCOG Model Tests

existing dfw 4 step model
Existing DFW 4-Step Model

DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION

ZONE LAYER

TRIP GENERATION

ROADWAY NETWORK

ROADWAY SKIMS

TRIP DISTRIBUTION

TRANSIT NETWORK

MODE CHOICE

LOOP

ROADWAY ASSIGNMENT

TRANSIT SKIMS

TRAVEL TIME

CONVERGENCE

INPUT

NO

PROCESS

YES

DECISION

TRANSIT ASSIGNMENT

dfw model with cemdap in place
DFW Model With CEMDAP In Place

DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION

ZONE LAYER

CEMDAP

ROADWAY NETWORK

ROADWAY SKIMS

CEMDAP

TRANSIT NETWORK

CEMDAP

LOOP

ROADWAY ASSIGNMENT

TRANSIT SKIMS

TRAVEL TIME

CONVERGENCE

INPUT

NO

PROCESS

YES

DECISION

TRANSIT ASSIGNMENT