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Met Council’s Housing Needs Formula & Local Government Response 1976 Land Use Planning Act requires cities in region to prepare a housing element in comprehensive plan to include…

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Presentation Transcript
slide2
1976 Land Use Planning Act requires cities in region to prepare a housing element in comprehensive plan to include…

“…standards, plans and programs for providing adequate housing to meet existing and projected local and regional housing needs…”

  • 1995 Livable Communities Act
    • Negotiated housing goals; not need-based
    • Covers 1995-2010
housing needs for 2010 2020
Housing Needs for 2010 - 2020
  • Return to needs-based planning
  • “A land planning exercise”
    • Newly-constructed affordable housing
    • Designed to guide land development
step 1 regional growth projections
Step 1:Regional growth projections
  • 166,547 new households between 2010-2020
  • City level growth forecasts
step 2 growth in low income population
Step 2:Growth in low-income population
  • Proportion of growth consisting of low-income households
  • 38%, or 64,100 households
step 3 private sector adjustment
Step 3:Private sector adjustment
  • Estimate the number of units that will “filter down” and become affordable, providing housing to new low-income households
  • 20,300 new low-income households will be housed in such units
    • Units already exist
    • From The Next Decade of Housing in Minnesota
step 4 c alculate need for newly constructed affordable housing units
Step 4: Calculate need for newly constructed affordable housing units

64,100 (new low-income households)

-20,300 (units already existing that will filter down)

+ 2,200 (5% vacancy rate adjustment)

+ 5,000(units needed to house the homeless)

51,000 TOTAL NEED

(30.6% of regional HH growth)

step 5 apply 30 6 to city level forecast
Step 5:Apply 30.6% to city-level forecast
  • “Uniform allocation of affordable housing need”
step 6 adjust for low wage proximity
Step 6:Adjust for “low-wage proximity”
  • Calculate ratio of low-wage jobs to low-wage residents
  • If ratio greater than 1.0, “need” increases
step 7 a djust for existing distribution of affordable housing units
Step 7: Adjust for existing distribution of affordable housing units
  • Cities with more than 30% of units affordable decrease their “need”

(30.6% is the overall metro-area estimate of need)

step 8 adjust for availability of transit service
Step 8:Adjust for availability of transit service
  • Cities with high transit service receive a 20% boost in “need” number
  • No adjustment for cities with low transit service
  • Cities with no transit service receive a 20% reduction in “need” number
step 9 final adjustment so that the sum of all city level need numbers 51 000
Step 9: Final adjustment so that the sum of all city-level “need” numbers = 51,000
  • 51,000 is total regional need
  • Previous adjustments had cumulative effect of increasing that number
  • Final adjustment (K2) needed to bring total back to 51,000
the formula
The Formula:

City’s affordable housing need =

(HH growthc * .306) *

(1 + (J/Wc - 1) + (.3 – ExAffHsgc) + (TAc)) * K2

sample results
Blaine 1,267

Circle Pines 13

Ramsey 1,402

Chanhassen 1,301

New Germany 4

Lakeville 2,288

Apple Valley 1,324

Eagan 530

Bloomington 627

Brooklyn Park 1,590

Edina 212

Excelsior 29

Minneapolis 4,088

Arden Hills 288

Maplewood 333

Saint Paul 2,625

Jordan 37

Shakopee 2,105

Sample results
assessment
Assessment
  • Vast improvement over LCA
  • Redistributes effort away from the more affordable northern communities and toward the southwest
assessment cont
Assessment (cont.)
  • Assumes “filtering down”
  • Ignores demolition and “filtering up”
  • Definition of “low-income” uses income for household size of 4; average household size in region is < 3
  • Step 6 adjustment assumes all low-wage workers live in affordable housing; Council’s own figures say 44% do not
assessment cont19
Assessment (cont.)
  • Addresses need for affordable housing due to population growth between 2010-2020
  • Current estimate – 170,000 households lack affordable housing in region, 20,000 more will lack affordable housing by 2010
    • Total unmet need of 190,000 in 2010
  • LUPA:
    • “…adequate housing opportunities to meet existing and projected local and regional housing needs…”
assessment cont20
Assessment (cont.)
  • New formula will address only 20 to 25% of the actual need for affordable housing in the region
how will cities respond
How will cities respond?
  • Survey of 31 suburban communities with the largest affordable housing need numbers according to formula

Andover Apple Valley Blaine Bloomington

Brooklyn Pk Burnsville Champlin Chanhassen

Chaska Columbia Hts Coon Rapids Cottage Grove

Eagan Eden Prairie Edina Elko

Farmington Forest Lake Hastings Lake Elmo

Lino Lakes Medina Minnetonka Minnetrista

Oakdale Orono Robbinsdale Rosemount

Savage St. Louis Pk Woodbury

slide22

Have you seen the Met Council’s recent report on “Determining Affordable Housing Need in the Twin Cities”? Are you aware of what your community’s need level is, according to the report?

Not aware of need level: 19% (6)

Aware of need level: 81% (25)

n=31

slide23
What is your reaction to these goals? Do they seem high or low or about right for your community? Do they seem feasible for you to meet?

Satisfaction with goals:

Not satisfied: 60% (9)

Satisfied: 40% (6)

n=15

Perception of levels:

Low: 4% (1)

About right: 26% (7)

High: 70% (19)

n=27

Feasibility:

Not feasible: 67% (14)

Feasible: 33% (7)

n=21

do you keep a data base tracking the supply of low and moderate income housing
Do you keep a data base tracking the supply of low- and moderate-income housing?

No: 70% (21)

Yes: 30% (9)

slide25
Will your community be using the need number established in that report as the affordable housing target in your comprehensive plan update?

No: 10% (3)

Not sure (may not use because need number is not desirable): 45% (14)

Not sure (may not use because of a lack of factual knowledge): 10% (3)

Yes: 35% (11)

what are the problems you foresee or the obstacles to meeting these goals
What are the problems you foresee, or the obstacles, to meeting these goals?

1. Market forces/cost of land: 65% (20)

2. Lack of available land: 37% (11)

3. Lack of funding: 32% (10)

4. Political will: 23% (7)

5. Restrictions on eminent domain: 6% (1)

6. Other (affordable owner units, access to transit/jobs, lack of staff, red tape, low-density development, clean-up costs for redevelopment, construction standards): 71% (22)

what do you think is going to be needed for your city to achieve its affordable housing goals
What do you think is going to be needed for your city to achieve its affordable housing goals?

Funding: 37% (11)

Education/political will: 23% (7)

Available land: 7% (2)

Rezoning:7% (2)

Work of non-profits/CDCs: 3% (1)

Other (affordable housing program, staff resources, change in market, time, dialogue): 43% (13)

slide28
If there were state and federal funds available for affordable housing production, could you meet your affordable housing goals?

No: 14% (4)

Not sure: 34% (14)

Yes: 48% (14)

slide29

In your opinion, is there anything in your zoning ordinances, permitting processes, or other requirements that discourages or prevents adding to the supply of low-moderate income housing?

No: 33% (9)

Yes: 67% (18)

n=27

Deterrents:

  • Lot size requirements (low-density zoning): 53% (9)
  • Design guidelines: 35% (6)
  • Square foot minimums: 24% (4)
  • Lack of funding: 12% (2)
  • Accessory apts. not allowed: 6% (1)
  • Taxes: 6% (1)
  • Red tape/length of approval process: 6% (1)
slide30

Please indicate whether – and how much – each of the following local practices limit the development of low-moderate income housing in your community.

more analysis to come
More analysis to come
  • Data on specific programs used and their assessments of those program
  • Comparison to data collected in 2001
  • Cross-tabulations
  • Add interview information to Citizen Guides