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Outlook for livestock other than cattle. Lee Meyer Econ. Subject Matter Training October 17 - 21, 2005. Hog Market Outlook. What has happened to Kentucky hog production? Production leveling ? 1989 – 975,000 hd. 1999 – 460,000 hd. 2002 – 370,000 hd. 2004 – 350,000 hd.

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Outlook for livestock other than cattle

Lee Meyer

Econ. Subject Matter Training

October 17 - 21, 2005


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Hog Market Outlook

What has happened to Kentucky hog production?

  • Production leveling ?

    1989 – 975,000 hd.

    1999 – 460,000 hd.

    2002 – 370,000 hd.

    2004 – 350,000 hd.

  • Central Ky Hog Mkt Coop; contract growers in W. Ky.


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TOTAL HOGS & PIGS DEC. 1(1000 Head)

Alaska

Hawaii

US Total

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA/NASS


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DECEMBER 1 BREEDING HOGS AND PIGS CHANGE 1995 – 2004 (1000 Head)

Ky breeding herd dropped from 110,000 to 40,000 hd.

Alaska

Hawaii

US Total

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA/NASS


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Commercial Pork Production

Breeding Hog Inventory


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2004 production up 3%

2005 production up 1%

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA/NASS


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KFBM data – 2000-2004

avg.:$38/cwt. Cost of Production




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Key Goat Enterprise Issues:

  • Feed & Production Costs

  • Production Issues -

    parasite and foot management

  • Marketing


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Kentucky Goat Prices

40-60 lb. Selection 2

Graded Sales and Tel-O-Auctions

2004

Price per lb.

2005

2003


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Keys to Goat Markets

  • Weekly “by-the-head” markets have not only substantially lower prices, but much more variability in “take home $$”

  • Graded sales have more consistent and somewhat higher prices

  • Graded sales seem to be catching up with the New Holland market


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2004 Kentucky Goat Prices

40-60 lb. Selection # 1-2

Graded vs. Non-Graded KY Markets

Price per head


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Goat Price Summary

  • Nationally, prices have been increasing in the past three years

  • Kentucky graded sales prices have been increasing relative to national prices;

  • Demand for all meats has been strong and is probably one of the factors behind strong prices

  • Buyers anticipate continued strong prices, perhaps better for 2006; a weak economy could cause a modest drop in prices

  • Profitability for “efficient” production systems is good


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Poultry Market Overview

  • Low feed costs, high prices over past two years encouraged expansion;

  • Exports strong (up 12 % in 2005) on weak dollar;

  • Avian Influenza – U.S. bans lifted, China & Thailand still out of fresh market


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Key Future Market Factors

  • Exports to Russia and new markets;

  • Competition from Brazil – passed U.S. in 2004;

  • Dark meat value up, breast meat prices down

  • Feed costs