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Outlook for livestock other than cattle

Outlook for livestock other than cattle. Lee Meyer Econ. Subject Matter Training October 17 - 21, 2005. Hog Market Outlook. What has happened to Kentucky hog production? Production leveling ? 1989 – 975,000 hd. 1999 – 460,000 hd. 2002 – 370,000 hd. 2004 – 350,000 hd.

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Outlook for livestock other than cattle

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  1. Outlook for livestock other than cattle Lee Meyer Econ. Subject Matter Training October 17 - 21, 2005

  2. Hog Market Outlook What has happened to Kentucky hog production? • Production leveling ? 1989 – 975,000 hd. 1999 – 460,000 hd. 2002 – 370,000 hd. 2004 – 350,000 hd. • Central Ky Hog Mkt Coop; contract growers in W. Ky.

  3. TOTAL HOGS & PIGS DEC. 1(1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

  4. DECEMBER 1 BREEDING HOGS AND PIGS CHANGE 1995 – 2004 (1000 Head) Ky breeding herd dropped from 110,000 to 40,000 hd. Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

  5. Commercial Pork Production Breeding Hog Inventory

  6. 2004 production up 3% 2005 production up 1% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

  7. KFBM data – 2000-2004 avg.:$38/cwt. Cost of Production

  8. Hog Market Forecasts

  9. What’s going on with Goat Marketing in Kentucky?

  10. Key Goat Enterprise Issues: • Feed & Production Costs • Production Issues - parasite and foot management • Marketing

  11. Kentucky Goat Prices 40-60 lb. Selection 2 Graded Sales and Tel-O-Auctions 2004 Price per lb. 2005 2003

  12. Keys to Goat Markets • Weekly “by-the-head” markets have not only substantially lower prices, but much more variability in “take home $$” • Graded sales have more consistent and somewhat higher prices • Graded sales seem to be catching up with the New Holland market

  13. 2004 Kentucky Goat Prices 40-60 lb. Selection # 1-2 Graded vs. Non-Graded KY Markets Price per head

  14. Goat Price Summary • Nationally, prices have been increasing in the past three years • Kentucky graded sales prices have been increasing relative to national prices; • Demand for all meats has been strong and is probably one of the factors behind strong prices • Buyers anticipate continued strong prices, perhaps better for 2006; a weak economy could cause a modest drop in prices • Profitability for “efficient” production systems is good

  15. Poultry Market Overview • Low feed costs, high prices over past two years encouraged expansion; • Exports strong (up 12 % in 2005) on weak dollar; • Avian Influenza – U.S. bans lifted, China & Thailand still out of fresh market

  16. Key Future Market Factors • Exports to Russia and new markets; • Competition from Brazil – passed U.S. in 2004; • Dark meat value up, breast meat prices down • Feed costs

  17. Broiler Forecasts - USDA

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