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Beef Cattle Market Outlook 2007

Factors driving beef markets in 2007. Is cowherd expansion over? Feed prices and ... us during 2007? Beef Cattle Market Outlook 2007. Jim Sartwelle, III ...

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Beef Cattle Market Outlook 2007

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    Slide 1:Beef Cattle Market Outlook 2007

    Jim Sartwelle, III Livestock Economist

    Slide 2:Factors driving beef markets in 2007

    Is cowherd expansion over? Feed prices and availability Domestic demand Recovery of export markets

    Slide 3:Where are we in the cattle cycle?

    AFBF estimates less than a 200,000 head increase during 2006 Drought-induced liquidations were significant in cow country Replacement heifers went to town

    Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

    Slide 8:Everyone’s favorite subject – Biofuels

    Every 50 cent uptick in corn price increases fed cattle breakevens by: $2.20 for a steer placed at 725 lbs.* $3.50 for a steer placed at 500 lbs.* Popular parlor game of late 2006 Where will we feed cattle in the future? * Fed to 1250 lbs. end weight

    Slide 12:Domestic demand – cause for concern

    Slide 13:Market price projections for 2007

    Fed Cattle Jan-Jun, $87-$93 Jul-Dec, $85-$90 Slaughter Cows (boning utilities) Jan-Mar, $40-$45 7-wt Feeder Steers (South Plains) Jan-Jun, $87-$98 Jul-Dec, $94-$104 5-wt Steer Calves (South Plains) Jan-Jun, $98-$108 Jul-Dec, $96-$110

    Slide 14:Big questions for 2007

    Divergence among fed cattle and feeder/calf markets? Domestic demand rebound? Will drought cycles break? What will trade bring us during 2007?

    Slide 15:Beef Cattle Market Outlook 2007

    Jim Sartwelle, III Livestock Economist

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