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What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006?. Dr. Walter Prevatt Dr. Deacue Fields Extension Economists Auburn University. Cattle Situation and Outlook. U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006. Million Head. Cattle & Calves Inventory. Year.

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What s the cattle price outlook for 2006

What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006?

Dr. Walter Prevatt

Dr. Deacue Fields

Extension Economists

Auburn University



U s cattle and calves inventory 1949 2006
U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006

Million Head

Cattle & Calves Inventory

Year


U s cattle and calves inventory 1949 20061
U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006

Million Head

Cattle & Calves Inventory

1949-58

1958-67

1967-79

1979-90

1990-04

Year


Length of u s cattle cycles
Length of U.S. Cattle Cycles

Million Head

1967-79

1958-67

2004-?

1979-90

1990-04

1949-58

Number of Years



U s cattle and calves inventory 97 1 million head jan 1 2006
U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory,97.1 Million Head, Jan. 1, 2006



Percent change from a year ago in u s inventory jan 1 2006
Percent Change From A Year Ago In U.S. Inventory, Jan. 1, 2006



Heifers as a percent of total feedlot placements 1980 2005
Heifers As A Percent Of Total Feedlot Placements, 1980-2005



U s average cattle carcass weights 1975 2005
U.S. Average Cattle Carcass Weights, 1975-2005

Factors affect carcass weights include genetics, marketing technology, corn prices, grid pricing, fed cattle prices, breakeven prices, etc.



U s cattle operations number by size group 2005
U.S. Cattle Operations, Number by Size Group, 2005

982,510 U.S. cattle operations, 2005


U s cattle operations inventory percent by size group 2005
U.S. Cattle Operations & Inventory, Percent by Size Group, 2005

Cattle Operations

Cattle Inventory


Cattle situation and outlook1
Cattle Situation and Outlook 2005

Demand

Situation


U s per capita meat consumption retail weight basis 1976 200 6
U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2005Retail Weight Basis, 1976-2006


U s per capita meat consumption retail weight basis 1976 200 61
U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2005Retail Weight Basis, 1976-2006


U s beef imports and exports billion pounds 1970 0 6
U.S. Beef Imports and Exports, 2005Billion Pounds, 1970-06


U s beef imports and exports billion dollars 1976 0 6
U.S. Beef Imports and Exports, 2005Billion Dollars, 1976-06


Cattle situation and outlook2
Cattle Situation and Outlook 2005

Cost of Production


U s cow calf cash expenses 1972 99
U.S. Cow-Calf Cash Expenses, 1972-99 2005

*1990-99 estimates were based on a revised methodology.



Stocker gross margin alabama october april 400 750 1979 200 6
Stocker Gross Margin, Alabama, 2005October-April, 400# -750#, 1979-2006

Gross margin is feeder sale value minus stocker purchase value.

Based on steers, med. & lrg., No. 1, Oct. to Apr., 400 to 750 pounds.


Monthly feeding cost of gain 700 to 800 lb steers in kansas
Monthly Feeding Cost of Gain 2005700 to 800 Lb. Steers in Kansas

Source: KSU Cattle Return Series


Cattle situation and outlook3
Cattle Situation and Outlook 2005

Market Prices


Alabama feeder calf prices steers med lg 1 1990 200 6
Alabama Feeder Calf Prices, 2005Steers, Med. & Lg., #1, 1990-2006



Annual u s beef production average fed beef price 2000 2006
Annual U.S. Beef Production & 2005Average Fed Beef Price, 2000-2006


Quarterly u s beef production 2004 06
Quarterly U. S. Beef Production, 2004-06 2005

*Estimated (2004 -> 24.5B, 2005 -> 24.7B, 2006 -> 25.9B*)



2006 cattle price projections cwt
2006 Cattle Price Projections, $/Cwt. 2004-2006

These projections will be revised as new economic information is received and processed.


Cattle situation and outlook4
Cattle Situation and Outlook 2004-2006

Profit Potential


U s cow calf returns over cash expenses 1972 99
U.S. Cow - Calf Returns 2004-2006Over Cash Expenses, 1972-99

Source: USDA


Average annual cow calf returns over cash expenses 1980 2004
Average Annual Cow-Calf Returns 2004-2006Over Cash Expenses, 1980-2004

Source: Cattle-Fax


Average annual stocker cattle returns over cash expenses 1980 200 6
Average Annual Stocker Cattle 2004-2006Returns Over Cash Expenses, 1980-2006

Source: Cattle-Fax

Includes winter and summer grazing programs.


Monthly returns for finishing 700 to 800 lb steers in kansas
Monthly Returns for Finishing 2004-2006 700 to 800 Lb. Steers in Kansas

Source: KSU Cattle Return Sales


Average annual cattle feeding returns 1980 2004
Average Annual Cattle 2004-2006Feeding Returns, 1980-2004

Source: Cattle-Fax


Cattle situation and outlook5
Cattle Situation and Outlook 2004-2006

Summary Remarks


Cattle situation and outlook6
Cattle Situation and Outlook 2004-2006

Greed,

Fear, and

Weather


Alabama feeder calf prices steers med lg 1 1990 2006
Alabama Feeder Calf Prices, 2004-2006Steers, Med. & Lg., #1, 1990-2006


Projected profit loss by cattle industry segments during the four price phases of the cattle cycle
Projected Profit/Loss By Cattle Industry Segments 2004-2006During The Four Price Phases Of The Cattle Cycle*

The information in this chart is generalized based on the price phase of the cattle cycle. These projections will be revised as new economic information is received and processed.


What s the cattle price outlook for 20061

What’s The 2004-2006Cattle Price OutlookFor 2006

Dr. Walter Prevatt

Dr. Deacue Fields

Extension Economists

Auburn University


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