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Priority Project ‘Quantitative Precipitation Forecast’ Progress report Task 1.1 and 1.2

Priority Project ‘Quantitative Precipitation Forecast’ Progress report Task 1.1 and 1.2

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Priority Project ‘Quantitative Precipitation Forecast’ Progress report Task 1.1 and 1.2

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  1. Priority Project ‘Quantitative Precipitation Forecast’Progress report Task 1.1 and 1.2 Silke Dierer and Francis Schubiger MeteoSwiss

  2. Outline • Work in Task 1.1 • Sources for cases with bad precipitation forecast • Preliminary list of cases • Further steps • Work in Task 1.2 • Verification for Winter 04/05 and Dec.05/Jan.06 • Example of a characteristic period • Further steps francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  3. Task 1.1 Selection of single test cases

  4. Selection of test cases: sources I • Information from forecasters about bad precipitation forecast • Not objective • For different forecast ranges • Verification of precipitation by forecasters • daily average for 15 regions in Switzerland • forecast, model results and observations • disadvantage: currently no automatic evaluation possible => Situations with bad precipitation forecast in Switzerland francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  5. Selection of test cases: sources II SYNOP-Verification - surface verification for Europe with SYNOP data => Situations with bad precipitation forecast for the aLMo domain francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  6. Selection of test cases • Preliminary list of test cases includes periods • that are reported by forecasters • or have a bad forecast for several regions (forecasters‘ verification) • and show high deviation in SYNOP verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  7. Selection of test cases: Preliminary list for 2005 • Date Source Under-/Overestimation classification (based on NCEP data) • dd at 500 hPa surface pressure • (high, low, flat) • 19.-22.1. FV + NW/NW/NW/NW L/H/H/L • 22.-23.1. FV + NW/NW L/L • 11.-15.2. FV + W/W/NW/NW/N H/H/L/L/L • 24.3. FV - SW H, flat • 9.4. FV + NO L • 16./17.4. FV - SO/O L,flat • 23.-25.4. Fo/FV +/+ W/W/SW H • 16./17.5. Fo/FV ?/+ SW H • 21.-23.5. FV - SW H • 14.6. FV + SW H • 25.6. FV +/- SW H,flat • 2.7. Fo + W L • 18.7. FV + SW H • 29.7. FV + SW H,flat • 2./3.8. FV + SW/S H->L, inbetween • 6.8. FV + W H • 11.8. Fo + W H • 14.-22.8. Fo/FV ?/+ (mainly) W/NW/N/N/N/W/SW/SO/O H/L/L/H,flat/H,flat/H/L/L/L • 28.8. Fo + NW H,flat • 2.9. FV + S H,flat • 8.-12.9. Fo/FV -/- (mainly) S/S/?/SW/SW H,flat/H,flat/L,flat,/L/L • 16./17.9. FV -, dann + W/SW L/L • 1.-3.10. Fo/FV +, dann –/- N/W/W H/L/L • 18.10. Fo erst -/dann + SW H • 22./23.10. Fo - SW/SW L/L • 3.11. Fo ? SW L • 6.11. Fo - SW H,flat francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  8. ANETZ verification for 21st January 05 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

  9. Selection of test cases: next steps • Complete list for 2004 and 2006 • Check if insufficient forecast is due to deviations of the synoptic situation • Might be necessary to rerun simulations due to missing output plots that can be compared with analysis • Possibly ANETZ verification • => skip these cases • Specify different kinds forecast errors (e.g. synoptic conditions) and select characteristic test cases francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  10. Task 1.2. Seasonal verification

  11. Verification of aLMo Winter 04/05 SYNOP francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  12. Verification of aLMo Winter 04/05 over Switzerland francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

  13. Verification of aLMo: December 05 – January 06 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo

  14. February 2005 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

  15. ANETZ verification for 10th -14th February 05 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

  16. Seasonal verification: next steps • Selection of characteristic days • Based on scatter plots for winter 2004/2005 and 2005/2006 (measurement vs. simulation) • 24h area averages for Switzerland, for different heights (0-800m, 800m-1500m and above 1500m) • Selecting days with bad precipitation forecast • Specifying synoptic situation • Select characteristic periods francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006