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June 12, 2006 JOSEPH ROMM jromm@cap-e

June 12, 2006 JOSEPH ROMM jromm@cap-e

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June 12, 2006 JOSEPH ROMM jromm@cap-e

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  1. Global Warming: A Boost to Nuclear Power The Boot to Nuclear Hydrogen June 12, 2006 JOSEPH ROMM jromm@cap-e.com

  2. CLIMATE BOTTOM LINE • Most warming goes into oceans & poles • Super-hurricanes are now the norm • 10 more years of inaction = 4° to 6+° F warming • Greenland goes (20+ feet of sea level rise) • 20 years = 6° to 10+° F warming • Serious Antarctic ice loss (80+ feet) • Sea level rise 6 to 12 inches per decade possible

  3. TUNDRA FEEDBACK At 550 ppm, 60% of top permafrost goes. At 690, 90% (lt. blue) (Lawrence, NCAR, 2005) Tundra C ≈ Atmo C Much of it CH4 Not in IPCC models

  4. TIME FOR DELAY HAS RUN OUT • We’re at 380 ppm CO2, rising 2+ ppm/yr • If 500 & rising in 2050, plan on 700+ in 2100 • Global emissions must peak ~2025 • We must cut CO2 emissions >50% by 2050. • We must stop building traditional coal plants • We must have average new car 60 mpg in 2040

  5. New Coal Build by Decade 670 500 221 >$1 trillion in misallocated capital Source: IEA, WEO 2004

  6. Unconventional Oil is Climate Disaster • Tar Sands: Use CH4 to make C-intensive fuel • Coal-to-Oil: Double the CO2 emissions • Still a bad idea with carbon capture • Enhanced Oil Recovery diverts captured CO2 • Should NOT be valued as geologic storage • Shale: 1.2 GW for 100,000 barrels a day

  7. The 7 Barriers to AFVs 1) High first cost for vehicle 2) Storage (i.e. limited range) 3) Safety and liability 4) High fueling cost (compared to gasoline) 5) Limited fuel stations: Chicken & egg problem 6) Not a cost-effective pollution-reducer 7) Tough competition: Hybrids

  8. The Hype About Hydrogen • “Total time to noticeable impact … is likely to be more than 50 years.” —Heywood, MIT, 7/05 • “If I told you ‘never,’ would you be upset?” Toyota’s Bill Reinert on when H2 replaces gas, 1/05 • “Forget hydrogen, forget hydrogen, forget hydrogen.” — James Woolsey, 1/06 • After “CO2 emissions from electricity generation are virtually eliminated….” — Science, 7/03

  9. Car of the Future: Plug in Hybrids • 20-mile electric range, then reverts to hybrid • Could displace half of gasoline • Works best with carbon cap • Blend in cellulosic ethanol • Why use future clean electricity for H2? • Plug in uses electricity 3 to 4 times more efficiently • Make use of existing infrastructure/vehicles

  10. Nuclear Hydrogen Fuel Costs Three Times More Than Nuclear Electricity(Idaho National Lab Analysis, 12/05)

  11. David Barber, Nuclear Programs, INL, 3/05 • “Not even nuclear energy can turn hydrogen into a winner.” • “There certainly will not be an overabundance of clean energy to squander on an inefficient hydrogen loop, particularly when the same tasks can be accomplished directly with the original electricity. Not this century, anyway.”

  12. 2020 Vision • Oil Prices at Current or Higher Levels • Global desperation about global warming • Nuclear electricity resurgence very possible • Hybrids the dominant vehicle platform • Plug-in hybrids the rapidly emerging platform • H2 fuel cell vehicles probably a dead end • No future for nuclear hydrogen • jromm@cap-e.com