Syllabus for Course Finance 3000
Download
1 / 157

Syllabus for Course Finance 3000 Hawaii Pacific University - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 929 Views
  • Uploaded on

Syllabus for Course Finance 3000 Hawaii Pacific University. Professor : Dr. Gunter Meissner, Business: 544 0807, Office: FHT 5 th floor #1 E-mail: gmeissne@aol.com, Web: www.dersoft.com. Contents: The course focuses on three main issues: a) Basics of Finance

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Syllabus for Course Finance 3000 Hawaii Pacific University' - Anita


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Slide1 l.jpg

Syllabus for Course Finance 3000

Hawaii Pacific University

  • Professor: Dr. Gunter Meissner, Business: 544 0807, Office: FHT 5th floor #1

  • E-mail: gmeissne@aol.com, Web: www.dersoft.com

  • Contents: The course focuses on three main issues:

    • a) Basics of Finance

    • b) Asset management

    • c) Debt Management

Goals: a) The student will be familiar with basic financial concepts

such as the Time value of money concept,Capital Budgeting (Investment decision process) and Working capital

management.

b) Asset management:

In the field of asset management every student will be a competent fund manager and financial adviser at the end of the semester. The student will learn about the two major investments: Bonds and stocks. The student will know how to apply the latest concepts and strategies of trading.


Slide2 l.jpg

Syllabus for Course Finance 3000 cont.

  • c)Debt management:

  • In the field of debt management the student will be familiar with the classical types of liabilities of a company (stocks, bonds, loans). Also, the student will learn how to use financial innovations such as interest rate and currency swaps, caps, floors, dual-currency bonds and convertibles in order to reduce cost and the various types of risk.

  • Literature: 1) Slides on www.dersoft.com/hpu

  • 2) Essentials of Corporate Finance, Ross, Westerfield, Jordan

  • 3) Trading Financial Derivatives, Gunter Meissner

  • 4) Outperform the Dow: Using Options, Futures and Portfolio Strategies to Beat the Market, Gunter Meissner

  • 5) Credit Derivatives : Application, Pricing, and Risk Management,

  • Gunter Meissner(will be used for Risk Management)

  • 6) Dictionary of Finance and Investment Terms, Downes, Goodman

    • 7) RISK Magazine (available at Library desk)


Slide3 l.jpg

Grading

  • Grading: Participation/Homework 10%

  • Trading game 10%

    • Financial paper 20%

    • Presentation of Financial Paper 10%

    • Mid-Term 25%

  • Final 25%

  • Point System

    95.00 =< A =< 100

    90.00 =< A- < 95.00

    86.66 =< B+ < 90.00

    83.33 =< B < 86.66

    80.00 =< B- < 83.33

    76.66 =< C+ < 80.00

    73.33 =< C < 76.66

    70.00 =< C- < 73.33

    65.00 =< D+ < 70.00

    60.00 =< D < 65.00

    F < 60.00


    Slide4 l.jpg

    Syllabus for Course Finance 3000 cont.

    Permanent homework:

    Read, listen to financial news!! Bring questions to class!

    Financial paper: Each student will write a 10 page paper and present it leading a 30 minute discussion on his/her findings. The paper has to be handed in one week before presentation.

    APA style, have a Table of Contents, have a Conclusion!

    The paper has to show your own thought process !

    Don’t cite too much, but analyze !

    The quality of the argument is important, not the argument

    itself !


    Slide5 l.jpg

    Finance as a Science

    Soft Sciences

    • Marketing

    • Management

    • Communication

    These sciences use Psychology, Sociology and common sense to solve problems; there is usually a “probably better” or “probably worse”

    Hard Sciences

    • Math/Statistics

    • CS/IT

    • Nature Sciences

    (Physics, Chemistry, Astrophysics

    Gene Technology)

    These sciences use Math, Logic and Computers to solve problems; there is usually a “right “ or “wrong”

    Finance

    • Time Value of Money Concept

    •Corporate Finance

    • Stock/Bond Analysis

    • Portfolio Theory (CAPM)

    • Derivatives (Futures, Swaps,Options)

    • Risk Management

    •Accounting

    • Behavioral Finance

    • Investments


    Slide6 l.jpg

    Should we learn Finance?

    Of course!!!!

    Why should we learn Finance??


    Slide7 l.jpg

    Topics for financial paper

    1)Analysis of the financial system of a certain country, especially the exchange

    2) The American Bond Market: History (Junk Bonds in the 80’s to today),

    Types of Bonds (Plain vanilla, floater…), Correlation of major Bond markets

    3) Bond theory: Rate of return, Duration, Convexity, Bond stripping

    4) The American stock market, History (1929 to today), Correlation to other major markets

    Perspective, where does it go?

    5)Stock analyses, P/E ratio, dividend yield, certificate, dividends, buybacks, stock splits,

    6) World stock indices, Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, NYSE, Russel 2000, Dax , Nikkei, FTSE,

    Hang-Seng, Indices of Emerging Markets, (B-share, Bolsa…), Correlation! Perspective

    7) World commodity markets, Overview, indices (CRB), recent developments, Outlook - which one’s to buy

    8) CAPM, Theory, Implication, Practical relevance today?

    9) Monetary policy in the US, Instruments, Usage, Success

    10) European Monetary Union, Too early?, too unprepared?


    Slide8 l.jpg

    Topics for financial paper cont.

    11) Balance sheet of a company, Structure and Contents, Valuable for a potential investor? How to improve it

    12) Hong-Kong July 1, 1997, One country - Two systems, Status quo analyses - Outlook

    13)Economic indicators: NAPM, CPI, PPI, initial jobless claims, employment cost index (ECI), non-farm payrolls, unemployment, GDP, consumer confidence, beige book

    14) Mergermania – A threat to the capitalistic system?

    15) Swaps – Theory and Practice

    16)Convertibles – Types and Pricing

    17) Dividend Policy – Effects on the stock price

    18) The World bank and the IMF – Structure and Goals

    19) Insider Trading

    20) Technical Analysis – Trick or Treat

    21) Capital gains tax in the USA

    22) Mortgage backed securities in the USA


    Slide9 l.jpg

    Topics for financial paper cont.

    23) Mutual funds – Buy the one that has performed best?

    25) Futures - Practical application and pricing

    26) Options - Practical application and pricing

    27) Programming the Black-Scholes model or binomial option pricing model

    28) US Retirement Tools: IRA’s and 401K’s

    29) The Asian financial crises part 2 – Impact on the US and world economy with a time lag?

    30) Business cycles – Obsolete?

    31) The Japanese economy: solutions to a 10-year recession

    32) The Hawaiian economy: solutions to a 10-year ailing economy

    33) Forecasting methodologies for stocks; an overview

    34) Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection

    35) Working capital management

    36) Mergers and Aquisitions


    Slide10 l.jpg

    Topics for financial paper cont.

    37) Foreclosures, A sure bet?

    38) Finance and Neural Networks

    39) Finance and Fuzzy Logic

    40) Finance and Chaos Theory

    41) Derivatives: Curse or Blessing for Society ?

    42) Internet IPO’s: A sure bet for professionals ?

    43) Has the Fed done a good job lately?

    44) Technical Analysis: An empirical test

    45) US Retirement Plans (IRA’s and 401 K’s)

    46) Do Stocks outperform Bonds in the long run?

    47) Is the US sliding into a recession?

    48) Day-trading – Only for Professionals?

    49) E-Banking and E-Trading – Pros and Cons

    50) Can international market correlations be exploited by traders?

    51) Do Intra-day trends exist, that can be exploited by traders?

    52) Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO’s) – Pros and Cons


    Slide11 l.jpg

    Topics for financial paper cont.

    53) How to write a Business Plan – Write a detailed plan for your own company

    54) Buy outs – Types, Pros Cons, Success rates

    55) Are Bond Prices and Stock Prices positively or negatively correlated?

    56) Are Stock Prices and Volatility negatively correlated?

    57) Does an Increase in Volatility indicate an Market Reversal?

    58) Does the Internet reduce company's cost of capital?

    59) Will the Internet make Brokers obsolete?

    60) Venture Capital: A Good Investment?

    61) Malaysia’s Lesson from the Asian Financial Crisis: Should we ignore

    help from the IMF?

    62) Bush’s Anti Missile Shield: Technologically and financially ridiculous?

    63) Credit Derivatives: What are they, what are they good for?

    64) Where is the value in Behavioral Finance?

    65) Investing in Hedge Funds – Too risky?

    66) The Tobin tax – Can it decrease currency speculation and volatility?

    67) Choose your own topic


    Slide12 l.jpg

    Topics for financial paper cont.

    68) The recent accounting scandals – What happened, what has to be done?

    69) The Enron – Arthur Anderson saga – What went wrong? Lessons to learn

    70) The WorldCom accounting scandal

    71) The Value at Risk concept

    72) Basel II – The BIS proposal to banking supervision

    73) Corporate Risk Management: Market Risk, Credit Risk, Operational Risk

    74) Credit Derivatives – An Overview

    75) Credit Risk Management

    76) A survey of credit risk vendors

    77) Operational Risk – The next generation

    78) Pricing Credit Derivatives (Chapter 5 in Meissner’s book)

    79) Investing in ETFs – A good idea? What are the costs?

    80) The Daimler-Chrysler Merger - A success story? The $275 million lawsuit

    81) Dell’s direct sales strategy – The model of the future?


    Slide13 l.jpg

    Topics for financial paper cont.

    82) CEO and executive management compensation - Just a disgrace

    or harmful for shareholder value? Should there be a cap?

    83) Is the stock market crash over? Prediction for the future!

    84) The US credit score - How is it derived, Is there to much emphasis on it?

    85) The target Fed Funds rate – How does it exactly work?

    86) The US bankruptcy law – Too lenient?

    87) The Sarbanes-Oxley Compliance Solution – Pros and Cons

    88) The US Double Deficit – A Danger for International Financial Markets?

    89) Should China float its Yuan?

    90) Hedge Funds – What are their main strategies? Should they be regulated?

    91) Market Timing – How does it exactly work? Should it be restricted?

    92) Reits – Invest now?

    93) The US corporate tax law – Favoring the big?

    94) Martha Stuart – Wrongfully Convicted?


    Slide14 l.jpg

    Topics for financial paper cont.

    95) Bondstripping – How does it work?

    96) The weak dollar – Curse or Blessing for the US economy?

    97) Nanotechnology stocks – A good investment?

    98) The EU expansion to 25 states – Chaos in the making?

    99) Robert Engle’s 2003 Nobel-Prize rewarded GARCH theory – Justified?

    100) Volatility on Volatility – A good trading indicator?

    101) “Mexifornia” - Should illegal immigrants receive the green card?

    102) Microsoft – A falling giant?

    103) A Model for a Fair Exchange Rate

    104) A Fundamental Analysis Model to forecast stock prices

    105) Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac – Too much profit, too little benefit for

    mortgagors? Should they be privatized?

    106) Should stock options be expensed?

    107) Kmart – Sears, Another Failed Merger?

    108) Hedgestreet – Derivatives for the small investor. A useful tool?


    Slide15 l.jpg

    Topics for financial paper cont.

    109) Stock market forecast for the next year

    110) Fundamental and Technical Analysis of the Hawaii’s “Big Four”

    111) High-Tech in Hawaii – An Analysis of Kamakura Corporation

    www.kamakuraco.com

    112) An Analysis and Improvement of Kamakura’s ‘Technical Report’

    113) IBM selling its PC division to Lenovo – A good idea?

    114) The Shareholder Value Concept – Outdated, Too shortsighted?

    115) Is Management Compensation in the US too high? – Should there be a Cap?

    116) Hyundai –Currently number 7, soon number 1?

    117) Walmart, 2% of US GDP – Success by employee discrimination?

    118) The Boeing –Airbus Battle, No chance for Boeing?

    119) The IPO process – Unfair? Corrupt?

    120) How are Stock prices and Bond prices correlated? An empirical Study

    121) A Model for a Fair Stock Price – Combining fundamental and technical analysis

    122) Are we in the middle of a housing bubble, which will pop soon?


    Slide16 l.jpg

    Topics for financial paper cont.

    123) Investible Hedge Fund Indexes – Where do we stand?

    124) GM and Ford – What to do to fight Asia and Europe?

    125) Do markets bottom and top on high volatility?

    126) Private Equity Firms – Course or Blessing for the Economy?

    127) Islamic Law (Shari’ah) – Opportunities and Challenges

    128) Can we exploit the downturn during the earnings warning season?

    129) Should GM merge with Nissan-Renault?

    130) Ethics in Finance – Is there any?

    Choose your own topic, preferably finance related!!


    Slide17 l.jpg

    Jobs Jobs Jobs

    MBA

    FINANCE

    Banking

    (Trader, Marketer,

    Manager, Sales, CFA)

    CFP

    Treasury

    Department

    of any

    Company

    (CFO, CRO, FRM)

    Commercial

    Bank

    Investment

    Bank /

    Brokerage

    House

    Generally: Don’t study on easy street!!!


    Slide18 l.jpg

    To be Successful

    on the Job:

    Stay single !!!

    Experience

    Emotional

    Intelligence

    Intelligence/

    Knowledge

    • Self-awareness (realize how you come across)

    • Self-regulation (suspend a decision, analyze first)

    • Sensitivity (cultural; sense emotional problems)

    • Motivation / Ambition (work smart and work hard)

    • Social Skills (Communication, Team-skill,

    Persuasiveness)


    Slide19 l.jpg

    Who manages Money???

    Economic Unions

    EU, Nafta, Asean

    Individuals

    Companies

    Countries

    Reasons:

    Debt

    Reasons:

    Assets

    Recorded on a


    Slide20 l.jpg

    Start of new Bear Market, March 2000

    Bear Market

    Bull Market

    Bear Market

    Bull Market

    Bear

    Black Monday

    1987

    1973 and 1978 OPEC

    Crises

    Post

    War

    Growth

    Great

    Depression

    Conclusion:




    Slide23 l.jpg

    Trading in the New Millenium

    Broker versus Trader

    What we trade

    When we trade

    Where we trade

    How trades are executed

    What we do

    Criteria of good trader

    How we trade

    • Fundamental analysis

    • Technical analyses

    • Seasons

    • Intuition

    (Book chapter 2)


    Slide24 l.jpg

    Broker versus Trader

    What is a broker?

    A broker is a person who invests your money until is gone (Woody Allan)

    A broker is an

    There are interbank brokers:

    Trader at

    Bank A

    (Buyer)

    Broker

    Trader at

    Bank B

    (Seller)

    There are “private investor” brokers

    Private

    Investor A

    Broker

    Exchange

    Who takes price risk??


    Slide27 l.jpg

    Investment Products

    Mutual Funds are

    About of all mutual fund managers underperform their benchmark!!!

    Why????


    Slide28 l.jpg

    General Reason:

    Specific Reasons:


    Slide29 l.jpg

    Investment Products

    What about Hedge Fund or Fund of Funds performance??

    Difficult to know..

    Performance results suffer from ‘survivorship bias’ and ‘reporting bias’ (also

    called backfill bias)


    Slide30 l.jpg

    Investment Products

    Considering the mutual fund performance disaster, what shall we do ?

    Invest passively in

    as QQQQ, SPY, DIA, etc

    or

    (Holding company depositary receipts) as

    BBH (Biotech), Internet (HHH) or UTH

    (Utilities) etc


    Slide31 l.jpg

    Where we trade

    • on an exchange

    • OTC (over the counter)

    (Book p.10,11)


    Slide32 l.jpg

    How trades are executed

    • Open outcry

    • Electronically

    (Book p.13,14)


    Slide33 l.jpg

    On-line Trading

    First step:

    To trade:

    Execution

    of the trade:

    The broker checks the order (in terms of size

    and price) and puts it into the pit or computerized

    trading system

    The execution of the trade is displayed on your

    computer screen


    Slide34 l.jpg

    On-line Trading, cont.

    Advantages of On-line trading:

    Disadvantages of On-line trading:


    Slide35 l.jpg

    Open Outcry

    Exchange

    Pit

    Seat

    Pit

    Pit

    Hawaii

    Book p.13


    Slide36 l.jpg

    Computerized Trading (as the NASDAQ)

    AMZN

    Bid

    Size

    Offer

    Size

    $ 99 300

    $ 96 250

    $ 94 50

    $ 91 100

    $ 90 200

    $ 88 3000

    Book p.13


    Slide37 l.jpg

    Computerized Trading (as the NASDAQ)

    AMZN

    Bid

    Size

    Offer

    Size

    $ 99 300

    $ 96 250

    $ 94 50

    $ 91 100

    $ 90 200

    $ 88 3000

    Book p.13


    Slide38 l.jpg

    Computerized Trading (as the NASDAQ)

    “Level 2” trading allows an investor to see an

    ECN (Electronic Communication Network) screen


    Slide39 l.jpg

    What we do

    • Speculate

    • Arbitrage

    • Hedge

    (Book p.5,6,9)


    Slide40 l.jpg

    More on Speculation

    Difference Gambling - Speculation - Investing

    The chances of winning when gambling are

    Example:

    Exception:

    The chances of winning when speculating are

    In contrary to speculation,investing is


    Slide41 l.jpg

    More on Speculation

    These days, speculation is done ON MARGIN

    This means

    Example:

    An investor wants to buy Yahoo, which trades at $100.

    He buys it on margin, which is 40%, and only pays

    The same logic applies to short selling.

    Short selling is

    Warning: Only speculate with money you can afford to lose


    Slide42 l.jpg

    More on Arbitrage

    Example:

    Two traders quote the following prices for 1oz of Gold

    Tokyo

    Bid Offer

    London

    Bid Offer

    Is arbitrage possible?

    The term Arbitrage is often deliberately misused as

    in “Risk-Arbitrage = Take-over Arbitrage” or

    “Interest rate Arbitrage = Yield curve Arbitrage”



    Slide44 l.jpg

    The Philosophy of Stock Price Forecasting

    Forecast Possible:

    No Forecast Possible:

    The markets are “efficient”=

    All information about a stock

    is incorporated in the current

    stock price. This is equivalent

    to the

    “Random Walk Hypothesis”=

    • Fundamental Analysis

    • Technical Analysis

    • Seasonalities

    • Times Series Analysis

    • Neural Networks

    • Chaos Theory

    • Econometric Models

    (“Outperform the Dow” Book chapter 2)


    Slide45 l.jpg

    How we trade

    trading are decisions based on

    • Fundamental analysis

    • Technical analyses

    • Seasons

    • Intuition

    (Book p.16,17)


    Slide46 l.jpg

    Fundamental analysis

    Fundamental analysis is trying to forecast the movement of a stock price based on political, economical, sector-specific and company-specific data.

    • Political stability is essential

    • Macro-economicdata are to be analyzed

    • Sector is of importance

    • Company specific data are crucial

    (Book p.16,17)


    Slide47 l.jpg

    Financial Ratios

    An Overview of Popular Financial Ratios

    1) Earnings Ratios

    PE Ratio = Market Price / Earnings per Share

    (will be discussed)

    PEG Ratio = Market Price / Earnings per Share / Growth Rate

    (will be discussed)

    (will be discussed)

    Earnings per Share = Earnings / Number of Outstanding Stock

    (will be discussed)

    Dividend Yield = (Annual) Paid Dividend / Current Market Price

    2) Liquidity Ratios

    Current Ratio = Total Current Assets / Total Current Liabilities

    Net Working Capital = Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities

    Cash Flow = (Cash +Marketable Securities) / Total Current Liabilities


    Slide48 l.jpg

    Financial Ratios

    An Overview of Popular Financial Ratios

    3) Profitability Ratios

    (will be discussed)

    Return On Equity = Earnings / Net Worth of Company1)

    Operating Profit Margin = Operating Income / Net Sales

    Net Profit Margin = Net Income / Net Sales

    Book Value = Net worth of company1) / Number of outstanding stock

    4) Capitalization Ratios

    Debt-to-Equity Ratio (also called leverage) = (Bonds + Preferred Stock) / Net Worth of Company 1)

    1) The Net Worth of a company = Shareholders Equity = Total Current Assets – Total Current Liabilities


    Slide49 l.jpg

    Earnings ratios

    One of the most important ratios is the price-earnings ratio, PE

    The PE is the price of the stock divided by the earnings per

    share of the company.

    The earnings in the PE ratio can be trailing, current or expected.

    If the company is healthy and earnings are growing, the trailing PE ratio is higher than the current PE ratio, which is again higher than the expected (also called forward) PE ratio.

    The PE, which is published in newspapers and on screens, is

    usually the expected PE.

    As an example, if the stock of a company trades at $100 and

    next years expected earnings per share is $5, then the

    expected PE ratio is

    Result:


    Slide50 l.jpg

    Earnings ratios

    A fairly new ratio is the Price Earnings Growth ratio, PEG

    It is the PE ratio divided by next years expected growth rate:

    Example: The price of IBM is $100, the earnings per share is $2,

    And the next years expected growth rate is 50 (%).

    What is the PEG ratio?

    PEG ratios below 1 are considered fairly cheap, PEG’s of over 1

    are considered fairly expensive


    Slide51 l.jpg

    Earnings ratios

    Of importance is also the earnings per share ratio.

    It shows the allocation of the earnings to each share.

    For example, if the earnings last year was $10 million and the number of outstanding stock is 10 million shares, the earnings per share is

    This number is calculated after deducting taxes and dividends from the earnings.


    Slide52 l.jpg

    Earnings/Profitability ratios

    Closely related to the earnings per share is the return on equity

    The return of equity shows how profitable each share is.

    Return on equity is calculated as the return (= earnings) divided by the common stock at par (the original issue price of the stock) + capital surplus (difference between the current stock price and the par stock price) + retained earnings.

    For example, if the yearly return of a company is $1,000,000, and the sum of common stock at par + capital surplus + retained earnings is $10,000,000, the return on equity is


    Slide53 l.jpg

    Earnings ratios

    Another important ratio is the dividend yield

    It is the dividend divided by the current price of the

    stock.

    For example, if the dividend per year is $2 and the price of the stock is $100, then the dividend yield is

    High tech stocks e.g. Yahoo often do not pay

    a dividend.


    Slide54 l.jpg

    Technical analysis

    Technical analysis is trying to forecast the movement of a stock price from the pattern it has moved in the past.

    The philosophy of technical analysis

    • Chart patterns reflect the fundamental data in an economy or a company

    • The markets move in trends

    • History repeats itself

    (Book p.17,18)


    Slide55 l.jpg

    Theories of Technical Analysis

    a) Simple chart patterns

    Trend, support resistance, double tops and bottoms,

    triple tops bottoms, head and shoulders, flag

    b) Moving average convergence-divergence (MACD)

    c) Fibonacci Ratios and Elliot Wave principle

    d) Relative strength index (RSI)

    (Book p.17-33)


    Slide56 l.jpg

    a) Simple chart patterns

    The trend is your friend

    An upward trend is a movement with consecutive higher lows and consecutive higher highs:

    A downward trend is a movement with consecutive lower lows and consecutive lower highs.

    A sideward trend is a movement which does not exceed a certain high and which does not fall below a certain low.

    (Book p.18)


    Slide57 l.jpg

    a) Simple chart patterns cont.

    Support - Resistance

    A support level is a level, where the market is expected to

    from dropping, and possibly reverse to the upside. If however the support level is broken to the downside, a further significant is to be expected.

    A resistance level is a level, where the market is expected to

    from rising, and possibly reverse to the downside. If however the resistance is broken to the upside, a further significant is to be expected.

    (Book p.22-25)


    Slide58 l.jpg

    Support - Resistance cont.

    Breaking of a resistance

    (dashed line)

    Resistance and support as the

    previous low and high

    (Book p.22-23)


    Slide59 l.jpg

    Support - Resistance cont.

    A support line, created by

    connecting previous lows

    False breakout

    (Book p.23-25)


    Slide60 l.jpg

    a) Simple chart patterns cont.

    An ideal double top formation

    Triple top formation

    (Book p.25-26)


    Slide61 l.jpg

    a) Simple chart patterns cont.

    • Ideal head and shoulders formation

    Flag formation with an upward

    breakout

    (Book p.27-28)


    Slide62 l.jpg

    b) Moving average convergence-divergence (MACD)

    The MACD uses three exponentially smoothed averages to identify, like the concepts a) through c), a trend reversal or the continuation of a trend.

    The MACD indicator reduces to two indicators:

    The first, called the MACD1 indicator, is the difference between two exponential averages, usually a 26-day and a 12-day average.

    The second, called Signal indicator, is the 9-day moving average of the MACD1 indicator.

    The term convergence and divergence refers to a narrowing respectively widening of the MACD1 and the Signal indicator.

    A buy signal is given, when the more volatile average, the MACD1 indicator, crosses the less volatile average, the Signal indicator, from beneath. If the MACD1 line crosses the Signal line from above, a sell signal is given.

    (Book p.2-29)



    Slide64 l.jpg

    b) Moving average convergence-divergence (MACD)

    Calculation:

    Example:

    What is the EMAt for EMAt-1 = 10 and K = 0.2 (9 periods)

    Pt = 12

    EMAt =

    Pt = 8

    EMAt =

    Pt = 4

    EMAt =

    So?


    Slide65 l.jpg

    Fibonacci Ratios and Elliot Wave Principle

    In the 13th century the mathematician Fibonacci discovered a number series with some quite astonishing results.

    Adding two numbers to derive a result, then taking the last added number and adding it to the result, gives

    1+1=2; 1+2=3; 2+3=5; 3+5=8 and so on, which gives the number series

    Dividing consecutive numbers in this series by one another:

    Dividing a number by the one following two places behind:

    Technical analysts consider these numbers crucial.

    (Book p.30)


    Slide66 l.jpg

    Fibonacci Ratios and Elliot Wave Principle cont.

    In 1946 the retired accountant Ralph Elliot wrote his book "Nature's law - The Secret of the Universe".

    In this book he stated the “ElliotWave Principle”.

    In its most basic form, the principle says, that markets move in a repetitive cycle of five waves to the upside, followed by three waves to the downside.

    Elliot set certain rules for his principle, which are necessary for a certain pattern to qualify as an Elliot wave:

    (Book p.30,31)


    Slide67 l.jpg

    Fibonacci Ratios and Elliot Wave Principle cont.

    Mandatory Elliot Wave rules:

    1) correction wave 2 can never retrace more than 100% of wave 1

    2) wave 3 can never be the shortest wave of waves 1, 3, or 5

    3) the low of wave 4 is higher than the high of wave 1

    (Book p.30,31)


    Slide68 l.jpg

    Fibonacci Ratios and Elliot Wave Principle cont.

    Voluntary Elliot Wave rules based on Fibonacci numbers:

    • The minimum length of wave 3 is the length of wave 1 plus 61.8% of wave 1

    • Wave 4 should reverse to the upside, after having retraced 38.2% of wave 3

    • Highs and lows of the Elliot wave can be expected on day 13, 21, 34, 55,

    and 89

    The disadvantage of the Elliot Wave principle is the

    (Book p.30,31)


    Slide69 l.jpg

    Relative strength index (RSI)

    The RSI was developed by Welles Wilder in 1978

    It is based on the assumption, that after a strong rally the market is overbought and will enter into a downward correction phase.

    Similarly, after a strong fall, the market is assumed to be oversold and it will enter into an upward correction phase.

    The RSI tries to measure the degree of overboughtness respectively oversoldness and tries to identify, when the correction phase is likely to begin.

    The RSI does not work well in markets that have a very

    long and strong upward or downward trend.

    (Book p.30,31)


    Slide70 l.jpg

    Relative strength index (RSI) cont.

    The RSI is calculated as

    (2.2) RSI = 100 - (100 /( 1 + (Avg Up/Avg Dn)))

    Avg Up=Sum of all changes for advancing periods divided by total of periods

    Avg Dn = Sum of all changes for declining periods divided by total of periods

    An example:

    Given these data, Avg Up =

    Avg Dn =

    According to equation (2.2) RSI =

    Due to equation (2.2), the RSI can take values between 0 and 100

    (Book p.32)


    Slide71 l.jpg

    Relative strength index (RSI) cont.

    40-day price movement of a stock

    Resulting 10-day RSI

    An RSI of over 70 indicates an overbought market; an RSI of below 30 indicates an oversold market.

    Result:


    Slide72 l.jpg

    Critical appraisal of technical analysis

    Technical analysis is not voodoo,

    or is it?

    Does technical analysis implicitly include fundamental data?

    Not much empirical evidence!

    Main justification of technical analysis:

    (Book p.33)


    Slide73 l.jpg

    Trading according to Seasons

    Since 1950, 86.97% of the Dow gain occurred in the month from

    November to April !!!

    Sell in May and go away

    (Data since 1968)


    Slide74 l.jpg

    Trading according to Seasons cont.

    Table of monthly graph


    Slide75 l.jpg

    Trading according to Seasons cont.


    Slide76 l.jpg

    Trading according to Seasons cont.

    From the former table we can see that in 8 out of 12 month, the increase in the first two weeks of the month was higher than in the second half of the month.

    The increase in week 3 and 4 was only higher than the increase in week 1 and 2 in

    If we look at the absolute changes and sum up all the increases in the first two weeks of each month, we get 73.68%.

    Also, 12.53% + 13.94% = 26.47% of the Dow increase occurred in the


    Slide77 l.jpg

    Trading according to Seasons cont.

    What’s the “best” trading day of the week??

    Results do depend on the time frame of data selection


    Slide78 l.jpg

    Trading according to Seasons cont.

    Result:


    Slide79 l.jpg

    Summary of Investing

    • Diversify! Diversify! Diversify! CAPM shows that

      Diversification increases the ratio!

    • Mutual Funds are outdated! underperform

      their benchmark!

    • What about Hedge Funds?

    • Hence, invest ‘passively’ in

    • Use the business cycles!

    • Use seasonal patterns if you invest shorter term


    Slide80 l.jpg

    Summary of Investing cont.

    Invest, don’t speculate; If you do speculate, watch the

    market and only speculate with the money you can

    afford to

    lose

    • Growth stocks or value stocks ? Buy growth stocks,

      small caps and junk bonds in an

    Trend is your friend! Enjoy the ride;

    don’t try to predict a trend-reversal

    Buy beaten up-high tech stocks

    Realize once a while!

    Is patience is a virtue ?;

    admit your are wrong!


    Slide81 l.jpg

    What should we base our trading decision on ??

    Fundamental analysis ?

    Technical analysis ?

    Seasons ?

    Intuition ?


    Slide82 l.jpg

    2) Bonds versus Stocks

    Bonds

    Definition:

    A bond is a promissory note. The bond issuer promises to pay a specific sum of cash flows to the bond holder.


    Slide83 l.jpg

    Bonds cont.

    Types of bonds:

    • Debentures (unsecured debt obligation, i.e. savings account)

    • Short term bonds: Commercial paper (2 to 270 days, issued

    • by top banks and companies), Certificates of deposit (CD’s)

    • (several days to years, issued by banks)

    • Savings Bonds: Issued by US Government for small investors,

    Denomination from $50, usually local, state, and federal tax

    exempt but lower yield than Treasuries

    • Treasuries:

    Treasury bills: Maturity up to 1 year, auctions of 91 and 270 day

    treasury bills take place weekly, minimum $5,000

    Treasury notes: Maturity 1 year to 10 years, minimum $1,000

    Treasury bonds: Maturity 10 years to 30 years, minimum $1,000

    Treasury Bonds are local and state but not federal tax exempt

    • Mortgage bonds (secured by real estate)

    • Zero bonds (pay no coupon)


    Slide84 l.jpg

    Bonds cont.

    Types of bonds cont.

    • Junk bonds (credit rating of issuer is bad)

    • Eurobonds (An American company issues a bond outside the US and pays dollar interest and dollar principal)

    • Floating rate bonds

    •Credit linked bonds

    •Inflation linked bonds

    • Dual currency bonds

    (Australian company, which invests in Japan and believes the Yen will devalue, issues a bond in yen, pays yen coupon and returns Australian Dollar at maturity (at maturity the issuer exchanges yen into Austral. $ at a fixed exchange rate, which is guaranteed by the underwriter))


    Slide85 l.jpg

    Main differences between bonds and stocks

    1) Bond prices return to their issue price (Fish-effect)

    Stock prices are assumed normally or log-normally distributed

    P

    t

    T

    (Book p.203)


    Slide86 l.jpg

    Main differences between bonds and stocks cont.

    P

    t

    T

    “Distribution function” of a bond and a stock

    (Book p.203)


    Slide87 l.jpg

    Main differences between bonds and stocks cont.

    Normal versus log-normal distribution of a stock

    Result:

    (Book p.197)



    Slide89 l.jpg

    Main differences between bonds and stocks cont.

    Main criteria of stocks

    • Preferred stock

    • Convertible

    • IPO’s (going public)

    • Mergers / Spin-offs

    • Buy backs

    • Stock splits

    • Beta

    • Ratios: P/E ratio, earnings per share, return on equity, dividend yield


    Slide90 l.jpg

    Bond pricing

    The price of a bond B is the sum of all discounted future

    cash flows.

    The cash flows of a 5 year coupon bond with a principal

    amount of $100 and a 3% annual coupon looks as follows:

    1y

    2y

    3y

    4y

    5y

    B?


    Slide91 l.jpg

    Bond pricing cont.

    Mathematically, the discounted sum of all future cash flows is

    where

    B : Bond price

    n : number of coupon payments

    ct : coupon at time t (known interest rate payments, paid every 6 months in the US)

    y : yield to maturity

    PA : principal amount

    Treating the last coupon and tbe PA as one coupon cn, we get

    (4.24)

    (Book p.105,106)


    Slide92 l.jpg

    Bond pricing cont.

    Example 1: What is the price of 4 year 5% annual

    coupon bond with a 3% yield and a principal amount of 100?

    Example 2: What is the price of 4 year 5%-coupon bond

    with a 5% yield and a principal amount of 100?

    (Book p.105,106)


    Slide93 l.jpg

    Bond pricing cont.

    What is the Yield???

    • The yield (also called yield to maturity) is the of the bond

    • expressed as an annual percentage, if the bond is bought at the current

    • market price and held to maturity, assuming no default risk

    b) The yield is the used in the discount factor df = 1 / (1+y)t

    to derive the present value (the price of the bond). [FV x df = PV]

    c) The yield curve (yield with respect to time) expresses

    in an economy for AAA rated bonds

    The higher the yield, the better to buy the bond????


    Slide94 l.jpg

    Bond pricing cont.

    Dirty versus Clean Price

    The price found on screens and in newspapers usually the

    Clean Price

    If an investor buys a bond, he has to pay the clean price

    Plus the ACCRUED INTEREST

    The accrued interest is the interest that is calculated daily and has

    accumulated since the last coupon date

    The price that is actually paid when buying the bond is therefore the

    Dirty Price =

    Clean Price + Accrued Interest

    (Book p.291)


    Slide95 l.jpg

    Bond pricing cont.

    Example: A bond trades at 103.00, has a coupon of 6% and

    the last coupon date was 50 days ago. What does an investor

    have to pay when he buys the bond?

    He has to pay the dirty price, which is the clean price

    + accrued interest:

    Naturally, when you sell a bond, you sell it at the

    Dirty price

    (Book p.291)


    Slide96 l.jpg

    Stocks Pricing

    Bonds are priced by discounting all the (known) future cash flows back to

    today.

    The same logic can be applied for stocks.

    However, the dividend of a stock is unknown, so we have to make

    an assumption about future dividends.

    Usually companies let their dividends grow with a constant rate g,

    for example 3%.

    Also, since stocks do not have a maturity date, we have to use

    infinite time periods.

    This leads us to the following equation for the price of a stock:


    Slide97 l.jpg

    Stocks Pricing with the Constant-Growth Dividend Model

    S = Stock price, D0 = last paid Dividend, g = dividend growth rate,

    i = discount rate (also called required return of the stock)

    Example:

    A company's last paid dividend was $2. The growth rate of the dividend

    is expected to be 3%. The discount rate is 6%.

    What is the stock price using 5 future periods?


    Slide98 l.jpg

    Stocks Pricing with the Constant-Growth Dividend Model

    Critical Appraisal of the Constant Growth Dividend Model

    The model shows the inverse relationship between interest rates and

    Stock prices!

    The model shows ONE factor that influences the price of a stock.

    Other factors are expected revenue and earnings growth rate,

    quality of management, market product, competitors, economy,

    sector, psychology, legal battles, etc.

    Many high-tech companies do not pay a dividend (such as Microsoft

    or Yahoo). In this case the constant dividend growth model is of no value


    Slide99 l.jpg

    Dividend Policy

    As mentioned earlier, companies often have a long-term moderate growth rate of their dividend.

    This policy is supposed to give confidence in the long term prospective of the company.

    The share price of companies that have to reduce their dividends, usually suffer a severe decline in the share price.

    (Emery p.476f)


    Slide100 l.jpg

    Dividend Policy

    The timeline of dividends

    Dividend

    declaration

    date (Amount

    and Ex-dividend

    date are

    announced)

    Ex-dividend

    date

    (Stock price

    drops by the

    dividend

    amount)

    Holder of

    Record date

    (List of share-

    holders

    is established)

    Dividend

    payment

    date

    An investor has to own the stock BEFORE the ex-dividend date in order to

    receive the dividend. That is why the stock drops at the dividend date.


    Slide101 l.jpg

    Dividend Policy

    Dividends Irrelevance Theorem

    There is a school of thought lead by Miller and Modigliani, that the

    payment of dividends is irrelevant for a company and that shareholders

    should be indifferent to dividends.

    The theorem says that the payment of dividends will equal the loss

    of price appreciation of a stock. Thus, the share holder is indifferent

    to receiving dividends or the stock price increase.

    This theorem is correct if the following assumptions hold:

    • No transaction costs when selling stocks (Otherwise dividends would

    be preferable) or paying dividends (otherwise stock price increases are

    preferred.

    • Same tax treatment of dividends and share price increases

    • The companies management is uninfluenced by dividends and

    share price increases

    Do theses assumptions hold in reality???


    Slide102 l.jpg

    Dividend Policy

    In most countries, like the US, dividends are treated less favorable

    from a tax perspective than stock price increases.

    One could argue that there is “double taxation” of dividends due

    to the fact that they are taxed on a corporate level as income,

    and as income for the individual investor.

    That is why some countries, like Germany, have a lower tax rate

    on dividends than on retained earnings of a company.

    If dividends are taxed higher than stock price increases,

    it follows, that it is in the companies and share holders interest

    that no dividends should be paid!!


    Slide103 l.jpg

    Dividend Policy

    It can be argued that some investors simply like receiving dividends

    (clientele effect)

    This would make a company that pays dividends a popular choice

    resulting in an increasing stock price. However, these days investors

    behave fairly rational, and the clientele effect should be rater small.

    Conclusion of dividend policy:


    Slide104 l.jpg

    The Time Value of Money

    One dollar today is worth more than one dollar tomorrow.

    WHY???


    Slide105 l.jpg

    The Time Value of Money cont.

    How much less is a dollar worth in the future?

    a) Without interest on interest:

    $100 now are worth in three years with 10% pa:

    FV : Future value

    PV : Present value

    i : interest rate pa

    n : time in years

    FV = PV (1 + i n)

    Book p. 73


    Slide106 l.jpg

    The Time Value of Money cont.

    b) with discrete interest on interest

    b1) annual interest on interest

    FV = PV (1+i)n

    100

    1y

    2y

    3y


    Slide107 l.jpg

    The Time Value of Money cont.

    b2) semiannual interest on interest

    withm = 2

    FV = PV (1+i/m)nm

    b3) monthly interest on interest

    FV = PV (1+i/m)nm

    withm = 12

    (Book p. 74)


    Slide108 l.jpg

    The Time Value of Money cont.

    c) continuously compounded interest on interest

    With m  infinity,

    FV = PV (1+i/m)nm becomes

    e = Eulers number = 2.7182...

    (Book p. 74)


    Slide109 l.jpg

    The Time Value of Money - Application

    Guaranteed return on investment

    GROI stand for

    The investor invests $10,000 and is guaranteed at least $10,000 at maturity

    How does that work???

    The arranger takes a certain amount, invests it at the risk free rate and

    takes the rest to invest in a risky trade.

    Example: A Groi has an original investment of $10,000, 7 year maturity,

    annual interest rate 6%. How much does the arranger invest

    in the risk-free asset to guarantee the payback of $10,000?

    =

    (The $ grows to in 7 years, since

    The rest,


    Slide110 l.jpg

    The Groi graphically

    may grow to

    $3,349

    invested in

    risky asset

    $6,651

    Invested in

    risk-free

    asset

    grows to

    T

    t0


    Slide111 l.jpg

    Converting Interest Rates

    a1) To convert a sub-annual rate into an annual rate, we use

    (3.7) Eff = ((Nom / m) + 1) m -1

    where

    Eff : annual interest rate (effective rate)

    Nom : sub-annual interest rate (nominal rate)

    m : interest rate payment frequency per year

    Thus, a semiannual rate of 9.84% equals an annual rate of

    A quarterly rate of 9.84% equals an annual rate of

    Book p.75


    Slide112 l.jpg

    Converting Interest Rates cont.

    a2) Converting an annual (effective) rate into a sub-annual

    (nominal) rate, so solving equation (3.7) for Nom, gives

    So an annual (effective) rate of 10.08% results in an semiannual (nominal) rate of

    An annual (effective) rate of 0.1021 results in a

    quarterly (nominal) rate of

    Book p. 75


    Slide113 l.jpg

    Converting Interest Rates cont.

    b1)The conversion of an annual or sub-annual, also called discrete rate, into a continuously compounded rate, is done by equation

    (3.9) ln (1 + Dis / m ) * m = cc

    where

    ln : natural logarithm

    Dis : discrete interest rate (annual, sub-annual, etc.)

    m : interest rate payment frequency per year

    cc : continuously compounded interest rate

    So an annual (discrete or effective) rate of 10.08% results in a continuously compounded rate of

    A semiannual (discrete) rate of 9.84% results in a continuously compounded rate of

    (Book p. 75,76)


    Slide114 l.jpg

    Converting Interest Rates cont.

    b2) Converting a continuously compounded rate into a discrete rate, so solving (3.9) for Dis, gives

    (3.10) Dis = (ecc/m - 1) * m

    where Dis, cc, and m are defined as in equation (3.9)

    A continuously compounded rate of 10% is equal to an annual rate

    of

    A continuously compoundedrate of 9.61% is equal to a semiannual rate

    of

    (Book p. 75,76)


    Slide115 l.jpg

    What is the APR (Annual Percentage Rate)?

    An APR is a nominal interest rate!, thus it ignores interest

    on interest.

    The APR is calculated as the sub-annual rate (Nom)

    times the number payments in a year (m).

    APR = Nom * m

    Example 1:

    An entrepreneur pays 2% interest every 3 months. What

    is the APR?

    Thus, interest on interest is ignored


    Slide116 l.jpg

    What is the APR (Annual Percentage Rate) cont.

    Example 2:

    A car dealer tells you the APR, which has to be paid

    twice a year is 4%. What do you have to pay and when?

    Thus, interest on interest is ignored.


    Slide117 l.jpg

    What is the APR (Annual Percentage Rate) cont.

    Example 2 cont:

    The car dealer tells you to pay 2% every 6 months, thus the

    nominal interest rate is 4%.

    What is the effective (= annual and “real”, ) interest rate?

    We use equation:

    Therefore the effective (=annual) interest rate is

    Result:


    Slide118 l.jpg

    More on Corporate Finance

    • Capital Budgeting

    • Dividend policy (already discussed)

    • Working Capital Management

    • Budgeting and financial forecasting


    Slide119 l.jpg

    Capital Budgeting

    Capital budgeting is another term for the

    Investment decision process

    When should a company do a certain investment???

    Also, an investment can be done because of strategic reasons:

    • Increase market share

    • Hurt a competitor

    • Improve customer relations

    (Emery p.298f)


    Slide120 l.jpg

    Criteria for the Investment Decision

    (How can we tell, if a an investment will be good or bad)

    Net present value criteria:

    Do the investment if the net present value of all future cash flows is >0.

    NPV : net present value

    CFt :outgoing and incoming cash flow at time t (after tax)

    k : discount rate (=required rate of return)

    IO : Initial cash outlay


    Slide121 l.jpg

    Net present value criteria cont.

    Example:

    Volkswagen is considering investing in a new 3-Liter car.

    The company expects an initial investment in R&D

    (research and development) of $10,000,000.

    It expects negative outflows in year 1 and 2 of $2,000,000

    and $1,000,000 resp.. It expects profits in year 3 and 4 of

    $4,000,000 and $5,000,000 resp. and $8,000,000 for the

    years 5. The discount factor is 4%.

    Should Volkswagen build the 3-Liter car?

    NPV =

    Result:


    Slide122 l.jpg

    Capital Budgeting cont.

    Closely related to the NPV criteria is the

    Profitability Index or Benefit/Cost ratio

    According to the profitability index, should Volkswagen do the

    investment?

    PI=

    Result:


    Slide123 l.jpg

    Comparing the NPV criteria and the PI Index

    If the NPV is positive, it follows that the PI will be

    Thus, the NPV criteria and the PI index are basically identical.

    Advantage of NPV and PI:

    Disadvantage of NPV and PI:


    Slide124 l.jpg

    Capital Budgeting cont.

    Internal rate of return (IRR)

    The internal rate of return measures the return or profit of

    the investment.

    It is equivalent to the yield of a bond!!

    Mathematically, the IRR is the discount rate, that guarantees

    the future cash flows of the investment (CF) equal the initial

    outflow (IO):


    Slide125 l.jpg

    Features of the Internal rate of return (IRR)

    Unfortunately, we can’t solve the equation

    easily for IRR (we have to use search

    procedures) like Newton-Raphson)

    Usually , a company has a target IRR. If the calculated

    IRR is higher than the target IRR, so investment is

    done, vice versa.

    As the yield of the bond, the IRR concept (and the NPV

    and the PI assume), that all cash flows are reinvested at

    the discount = IRR rate. This is obviously a disadvantage.


    Slide126 l.jpg

    The modified IRR (MIRR)

    The drawback, that in the IRR model the cash flows are reinvested

    at the IRR rate, is solved in the MIRR model.

    In the MIRR model the cash flows are reinvested at the MIRR rate.

    The MIRR rate can be calculated in 2 steps:

    1) Calculate the future value of the cash flows using

    2) Calculate the MIRR using

    (is derived from )


    Slide127 l.jpg

    The modified IRR (MIRR)

    Example:

    A company has an IO of $1,000, and expects inflows of $300 at the end

    of year 1, $400 at the end of year 2, $500 at the end of year 3 and $600 at

    the end of year 4. The cash flows are expected to be reinvested at 15%.

    What is the MIRR rate?

    1) The future value of the cash flows is, following

    FV =


    Slide128 l.jpg

    The modified IRR (MIRR)

    the MIRR is

    2) Using

    As a comparison, the standard IRR of the above example is

    24.89% (see ECXEL file NPV IRR comparison)


    Slide129 l.jpg

    Comparing the NPV and IRR Method

    Question:

    If the NPV and IRR model return different results, what model

    should we trust???

    Example:

    (see EXCEL file

    “NPV IRR comparison”)

    Solution:

    Compare the NPV and IRR of the differencein cash flows



    Slide131 l.jpg

    Working Capital Management

    Firstly, the Yield Curve (= Interest rate curve) in an economy

    is usually steep

    Yield curves of the US, Germany and Japan on July 15, 1998

    Result: Investing money short term results in a lower return

    (Emery p.579f)


    Slide132 l.jpg

    Working Capital Management cont.

    Liquidity is

    the ability to pay off debt

    Profitability is

    the ability to make profits

    Working capital and liquidity are often used as synonyms and

    consist of cash and short term assets.

    Short Term assets consist of treasury bills, commercial paper

    (issued by banks and corporations) and CD’s (issued by banks)

    Net working capital is the difference between short term assets

    and short term liabilities.

    Net working capital has to be positive, otherwise you are


    Slide133 l.jpg

    Working Capital Management cont.

    The working capital trade off is

    the trade-off between liquidity and profitability

    The higher the liquidity (=cash and short term assets) the

    the risk of defaulting on debt , but

    The lower the liquidity (=cash and short term assets) the

    the profitability (long term assets and investment in the firm’s

    business), but


    Slide134 l.jpg

    Working Capital Management cont.

    How can we solve the liquidity - profitability trade-off??

    We can reduce the trade-off by the

    Maturity Matching Principle

    Match long term investments (real estate, trucks, machinery) with

    Short term assets (computers, software) can be matched with


    Slide135 l.jpg

    Financial Forecasting and Budgeting

    Forecasting in financial management is necessary to determine

    a companies financial need.

    Financial Forecasting is principally done in 3 steps:

    1. Forecasting of the companies sales revenues and other income

    over the planing period.

    2. Forecasting of the level of necessary investments and other

    expenses

    3. Use 1. and 2 to determine the financial need

    ((Emery p.648f))


    Slide136 l.jpg

    Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.

    Important for a company is the forecast of Sales.

    There are many forecasting methods is finance:

    Linear regression analysis, Non-linear regression analysis,

    Multi-variate regression analysis, Time series analysis,

    Econometric models, Stochastic processes, Monte-Carlo

    simulation and more

    Lets look at a linear regression-analysis to forecast sales:


    Slide137 l.jpg

    Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.

    One form of regression analysis is time series analysis.

    In time series analysis time t is on the x-axis.

    Example:

    Let’s assume the sales of Turbodyne (TRBD) are:

    In January $30,000, in February $34,000, in March $35,000

    and in April 39,000.

    What are the expected sales in May, calculated on a linear

    time series analysis?


    Slide138 l.jpg

    Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.

    Sales

    r

    $40,000

    $30,000

    time t

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Jan

    Feb

    Mar

    Apr

    May

    The goal is to find a linear regression function r, which minimizes

    the differences between the observed points and r.

    We then extrapolate r to find the sales for May.


    Slide139 l.jpg

    Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.

    Sales

    r

    $40,000

    S

    b =

    $30,000

    t

    a

    time t

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Jan

    Feb

    Mar

    Apr

    May

    In order to find the regression function r, we have to find a and b.


    Slide140 l.jpg

    Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.

    a =

    b =

    where

    n:

    number of observations

    average of times t;

    average of times S;


    Slide141 l.jpg

    Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.

    With

    t = 1,2,3,4 and

    S= 30,000; 34,000; 35,000; 39,000

    b =

    a =


    Slide142 l.jpg

    Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.

    It follows that the estimated Sales at time t =5,

    so in May, are

    S = a +b t =

    This forecast is based on the assumption, that the sales

    will increase linearly on the basis of historical data.


    Slide143 l.jpg

    Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.

    The Sales forecast is often used as a basis to plan other

    financial items, such as inventories.

    The Percent of sales method for Financial Forecasting uses a

    linear forecasting:

    Inventories

    30,000

    20,000

    Forecasted

    Sales

    30,000

    70,000


    Slide144 l.jpg

    Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.

    Creating a budget

    A budget tells you what you can’t afford, but it doesn’t keep

    you from buying it (William Feather)

    A budget is an estimate of revenues and expenditures.

    Revenue =

    Number of sales * price per sales unit

    Example:

    Dell sells 1 million PC’s in the year 2000 for $500 each.

    What is Dell’s revenue for 2000?

    A Cash-budget estimates a company’s necessary financial needs

    based on expected revenues and expenditures.

    ((Emery p.648f))


    Slide145 l.jpg

    Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.

    A Cash budget consists of

    • Estimated Cash receipts

    • Estimated Cash payments

    • Expected monthly cash balance

    • Financial need


    Slide146 l.jpg

    Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.

    Creating a cash budget


    Slide147 l.jpg

    Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.

    Creating a cash- budget


    Slide148 l.jpg

    • Practice Exam

    • Task 1 (25 points)

    • 1)If the market rises and breaks an important resistance line,

    • technical analysis recommends buying

    • True False

      • 

  • 2) If the market falls and breaks an important support line,

  • technical analysis recommends selling.

  • True False

    • 

  • 3) Speculation means trying to exploit the movement of an asset.

  • True False

    • 

  • 4) Traders take risks, brokers don’t

  • True False

    • 


  • Slide149 l.jpg

  • 6) Arbitrage is another word for risk-less profit

  • True False

    • 

  • 7) The yield curve of an economy is usually down-ward sloping

  • True False

    • 

  • 8) When buying on margin, you trade with borrowed money

  • True False

    • 

    • 9) The Nasdaq has outperformed the Dow in the last half year

      • True False

  • 10) The unemployment rate in the USA is close to 7.2%

  • True False

    • 


  • Slide150 l.jpg

    Task 2 (25 points)

    a) The annual market interest rate is 10%. An investor wants to

    invest $1000 for 5 years.

    The banker offers the client to pay back $1000 + $1000 * 0.1 * 5

    = $1,500. Is the banker trying to rip off the client?

    b) If you were the banker, what would you pay back to the

    client after 5 years?

    • c)A client wants to invest $1000 for 5 years. The banker offers

    • to pay 5% quarterly or 5.2% annually. The client decides

    • to take 5% quarterly. Did he do the right thing?

  • Use (Eff = ((Nom / m) + 1) m –1) Eff and Nom in %!


  • Slide151 l.jpg

    Task 3 (25 points)

    a)The annual coupon of a bond is 5%. The annual yield is

    also 5%. What is the price of the bond with a principal of $1000?

    b) What is the 20 day accrued interest of the bond?

    c) What is the difference between the coupon of a bond and

    the dividend of a stock?


    Slide152 l.jpg

    Task 4 (25 points)

    a) After attending the Fin300 class at HPU, you have become a

    successful financial advisor. One of your clients wants to invest

    $100,000 dollars. What are the two questions you ask him first?

    b) Your client wants to open up a savings account. What is your

    reply

    c)What do you suggest to the client as investment alternatives?


    Slide153 l.jpg

    Learning e and ln

    The number e -Eulers number- is an irrational number (a

    number that cannot be divided by tow integers (an integer is

    a number without decimals, so -3 and 4 are integers,

    -3.1 or 4.55 are not)

    The value of e = 2.71828182…. The decimals of e are indefinite

    Mathematically e = 1+ 1/1! + 1/2! + 1/3! =… = (1 + 1/m) m

    with m to infinity

    e has nice features such as if y = e x then y’ = e x

    y = e f(x) then y’ = f’(x) e f(x)


    Slide154 l.jpg

    Logarithm

    The logarithm of the number N to the base a is the exponent to

    which x has to raised to yield N. Thus

    Loga N = x if and only if ax = N

    Examples:

    Log 10 1 = 0 since 100 = 1

    Log 10 10 = 1

    Log 10 100 = 2

    Log 10 1000 = 3

    Log 4 16 =

    Log 10 (0.001) =


    Slide155 l.jpg

    If the base of the logarithm is e, the logarithm is called

    natural logarithm.

    Log e = ln

    Examples:

    ln 1 = 0 since 2.71830 = 1

    ln 10 = 2.326 since 2.71832.3026 = 10

    ln 100 = 4.6052 since 2.71834.6052 = 100

    ln -3


    Slide156 l.jpg

    Three important rules apply to logarithms:

    a) ln (a * b) = ln a + ln b

    b) ln (a / b) = ln a - ln b

    c) ln ab = b * ln a

    Rule c) comes in handy for solving equations:

    Solve for x, when 10x = 7, using rule c)

    Mathematically logarithms have nice features such as

    If y = ln x then y’ = 1/x

    If y = ax then y’ = ax ln a


    Slide157 l.jpg

    Graphically ln x and e are reflected across the y = x line

    y

    y = ex

    y = x

    y = ln x

    1

    x

    1

    Logarithmic functions are often used in psychology to

    explain human behavior.