Syllabus for Course Finance 3000 Hawaii Pacific University. Professor : Dr. Gunter Meissner, Business: 544 0807, Office: FHT 5 th floor #1 E-mail: gmeissne@aol.com, Web: www.dersoft.com. Contents: The course focuses on three main issues: a) Basics of Finance
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Syllabus for Course Finance 3000
Hawaii Pacific University
Goals: a) The student will be familiar with basic financial concepts
such as the Time value of money concept,Capital Budgeting (Investment decision process) and Working capital
management.
b) Asset management:
In the field of asset management every student will be a competent fund manager and financial adviser at the end of the semester. The student will learn about the two major investments: Bonds and stocks. The student will know how to apply the latest concepts and strategies of trading.
Syllabus for Course Finance 3000 cont.
Point System
95.00 =< A =< 100
90.00 =< A- < 95.00
86.66 =< B+ < 90.00
83.33 =< B < 86.66
80.00 =< B- < 83.33
76.66 =< C+ < 80.00
73.33 =< C < 76.66
70.00 =< C- < 73.33
65.00 =< D+ < 70.00
60.00 =< D < 65.00
F < 60.00
Syllabus for Course Finance 3000 cont.
Permanent homework:
Read, listen to financial news!! Bring questions to class!
Financial paper: Each student will write a 10 page paper and present it leading a 30 minute discussion on his/her findings. The paper has to be handed in one week before presentation.
APA style, have a Table of Contents, have a Conclusion!
The paper has to show your own thought process !
Don’t cite too much, but analyze !
The quality of the argument is important, not the argument
itself !
Soft Sciences
• Marketing
• Management
• Communication
These sciences use Psychology, Sociology and common sense to solve problems; there is usually a “probably better” or “probably worse”
Hard Sciences
• Math/Statistics
• CS/IT
• Nature Sciences
(Physics, Chemistry, Astrophysics
Gene Technology)
These sciences use Math, Logic and Computers to solve problems; there is usually a “right “ or “wrong”
Finance
• Time Value of Money Concept
•Corporate Finance
• Stock/Bond Analysis
• Portfolio Theory (CAPM)
• Derivatives (Futures, Swaps,Options)
• Risk Management
•Accounting
• Behavioral Finance
• Investments
1)Analysis of the financial system of a certain country, especially the exchange
2) The American Bond Market: History (Junk Bonds in the 80’s to today),
Types of Bonds (Plain vanilla, floater…), Correlation of major Bond markets
3) Bond theory: Rate of return, Duration, Convexity, Bond stripping
4) The American stock market, History (1929 to today), Correlation to other major markets
Perspective, where does it go?
5)Stock analyses, P/E ratio, dividend yield, certificate, dividends, buybacks, stock splits,
6) World stock indices, Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, NYSE, Russel 2000, Dax , Nikkei, FTSE,
Hang-Seng, Indices of Emerging Markets, (B-share, Bolsa…), Correlation! Perspective
7) World commodity markets, Overview, indices (CRB), recent developments, Outlook - which one’s to buy
8) CAPM, Theory, Implication, Practical relevance today?
9) Monetary policy in the US, Instruments, Usage, Success
10) European Monetary Union, Too early?, too unprepared?
Topics for financial paper cont.
11) Balance sheet of a company, Structure and Contents, Valuable for a potential investor? How to improve it
12) Hong-Kong July 1, 1997, One country - Two systems, Status quo analyses - Outlook
13)Economic indicators: NAPM, CPI, PPI, initial jobless claims, employment cost index (ECI), non-farm payrolls, unemployment, GDP, consumer confidence, beige book
14) Mergermania – A threat to the capitalistic system?
15) Swaps – Theory and Practice
16)Convertibles – Types and Pricing
17) Dividend Policy – Effects on the stock price
18) The World bank and the IMF – Structure and Goals
19) Insider Trading
20) Technical Analysis – Trick or Treat
21) Capital gains tax in the USA
22) Mortgage backed securities in the USA
Topics for financial paper cont.
23) Mutual funds – Buy the one that has performed best?
25) Futures - Practical application and pricing
26) Options - Practical application and pricing
27) Programming the Black-Scholes model or binomial option pricing model
28) US Retirement Tools: IRA’s and 401K’s
29) The Asian financial crises part 2 – Impact on the US and world economy with a time lag?
30) Business cycles – Obsolete?
31) The Japanese economy: solutions to a 10-year recession
32) The Hawaiian economy: solutions to a 10-year ailing economy
33) Forecasting methodologies for stocks; an overview
34) Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
35) Working capital management
36) Mergers and Aquisitions
Topics for financial paper cont.
37) Foreclosures, A sure bet?
38) Finance and Neural Networks
39) Finance and Fuzzy Logic
40) Finance and Chaos Theory
41) Derivatives: Curse or Blessing for Society ?
42) Internet IPO’s: A sure bet for professionals ?
43) Has the Fed done a good job lately?
44) Technical Analysis: An empirical test
45) US Retirement Plans (IRA’s and 401 K’s)
46) Do Stocks outperform Bonds in the long run?
47) Is the US sliding into a recession?
48) Day-trading – Only for Professionals?
49) E-Banking and E-Trading – Pros and Cons
50) Can international market correlations be exploited by traders?
51) Do Intra-day trends exist, that can be exploited by traders?
52) Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO’s) – Pros and Cons
Topics for financial paper cont.
53) How to write a Business Plan – Write a detailed plan for your own company
54) Buy outs – Types, Pros Cons, Success rates
55) Are Bond Prices and Stock Prices positively or negatively correlated?
56) Are Stock Prices and Volatility negatively correlated?
57) Does an Increase in Volatility indicate an Market Reversal?
58) Does the Internet reduce company's cost of capital?
59) Will the Internet make Brokers obsolete?
60) Venture Capital: A Good Investment?
61) Malaysia’s Lesson from the Asian Financial Crisis: Should we ignore
help from the IMF?
62) Bush’s Anti Missile Shield: Technologically and financially ridiculous?
63) Credit Derivatives: What are they, what are they good for?
64) Where is the value in Behavioral Finance?
65) Investing in Hedge Funds – Too risky?
66) The Tobin tax – Can it decrease currency speculation and volatility?
67) Choose your own topic
Topics for financial paper cont.
68) The recent accounting scandals – What happened, what has to be done?
69) The Enron – Arthur Anderson saga – What went wrong? Lessons to learn
70) The WorldCom accounting scandal
71) The Value at Risk concept
72) Basel II – The BIS proposal to banking supervision
73) Corporate Risk Management: Market Risk, Credit Risk, Operational Risk
74) Credit Derivatives – An Overview
75) Credit Risk Management
76) A survey of credit risk vendors
77) Operational Risk – The next generation
78) Pricing Credit Derivatives (Chapter 5 in Meissner’s book)
79) Investing in ETFs – A good idea? What are the costs?
80) The Daimler-Chrysler Merger - A success story? The $275 million lawsuit
81) Dell’s direct sales strategy – The model of the future?
Topics for financial paper cont.
82) CEO and executive management compensation - Just a disgrace
or harmful for shareholder value? Should there be a cap?
83) Is the stock market crash over? Prediction for the future!
84) The US credit score - How is it derived, Is there to much emphasis on it?
85) The target Fed Funds rate – How does it exactly work?
86) The US bankruptcy law – Too lenient?
87) The Sarbanes-Oxley Compliance Solution – Pros and Cons
88) The US Double Deficit – A Danger for International Financial Markets?
89) Should China float its Yuan?
90) Hedge Funds – What are their main strategies? Should they be regulated?
91) Market Timing – How does it exactly work? Should it be restricted?
92) Reits – Invest now?
93) The US corporate tax law – Favoring the big?
94) Martha Stuart – Wrongfully Convicted?
Topics for financial paper cont.
95) Bondstripping – How does it work?
96) The weak dollar – Curse or Blessing for the US economy?
97) Nanotechnology stocks – A good investment?
98) The EU expansion to 25 states – Chaos in the making?
99) Robert Engle’s 2003 Nobel-Prize rewarded GARCH theory – Justified?
100) Volatility on Volatility – A good trading indicator?
101) “Mexifornia” - Should illegal immigrants receive the green card?
102) Microsoft – A falling giant?
103) A Model for a Fair Exchange Rate
104) A Fundamental Analysis Model to forecast stock prices
105) Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac – Too much profit, too little benefit for
mortgagors? Should they be privatized?
106) Should stock options be expensed?
107) Kmart – Sears, Another Failed Merger?
108) Hedgestreet – Derivatives for the small investor. A useful tool?
Topics for financial paper cont.
109) Stock market forecast for the next year
110) Fundamental and Technical Analysis of the Hawaii’s “Big Four”
111) High-Tech in Hawaii – An Analysis of Kamakura Corporation
www.kamakuraco.com
112) An Analysis and Improvement of Kamakura’s ‘Technical Report’
113) IBM selling its PC division to Lenovo – A good idea?
114) The Shareholder Value Concept – Outdated, Too shortsighted?
115) Is Management Compensation in the US too high? – Should there be a Cap?
116) Hyundai –Currently number 7, soon number 1?
117) Walmart, 2% of US GDP – Success by employee discrimination?
118) The Boeing –Airbus Battle, No chance for Boeing?
119) The IPO process – Unfair? Corrupt?
120) How are Stock prices and Bond prices correlated? An empirical Study
121) A Model for a Fair Stock Price – Combining fundamental and technical analysis
122) Are we in the middle of a housing bubble, which will pop soon?
Topics for financial paper cont.
123) Investible Hedge Fund Indexes – Where do we stand?
124) GM and Ford – What to do to fight Asia and Europe?
125) Do markets bottom and top on high volatility?
126) Private Equity Firms – Course or Blessing for the Economy?
127) Islamic Law (Shari’ah) – Opportunities and Challenges
128) Can we exploit the downturn during the earnings warning season?
129) Should GM merge with Nissan-Renault?
130) Ethics in Finance – Is there any?
Choose your own topic, preferably finance related!!
MBA
FINANCE
Banking
(Trader, Marketer,
Manager, Sales, CFA)
CFP
Treasury
Department
of any
Company
(CFO, CRO, FRM)
Commercial
Bank
Investment
Bank /
Brokerage
House
Generally: Don’t study on easy street!!!
on the Job:
Stay single !!!
Experience
Emotional
Intelligence
Intelligence/
Knowledge
• Self-awareness (realize how you come across)
• Self-regulation (suspend a decision, analyze first)
• Sensitivity (cultural; sense emotional problems)
• Motivation / Ambition (work smart and work hard)
• Social Skills (Communication, Team-skill,
Persuasiveness)
Economic Unions
EU, Nafta, Asean
Individuals
Companies
Countries
Reasons:
Debt
Reasons:
Assets
Recorded on a
Start of new Bear Market, March 2000
Bear Market
Bull Market
Bear Market
Bull Market
Bear
Black Monday
1987
1973 and 1978 OPEC
Crises
Post
War
Growth
Great
Depression
Conclusion:
Conclusion:
Conclusion:
Broker versus Trader
What we trade
When we trade
Where we trade
How trades are executed
What we do
Criteria of good trader
How we trade
(Book chapter 2)
What is a broker?
A broker is a person who invests your money until is gone (Woody Allan)
A broker is an
There are interbank brokers:
Trader at
Bank A
(Buyer)
Broker
Trader at
Bank B
(Seller)
There are “private investor” brokers
Private
Investor A
Broker
Exchange
Who takes price risk??
Mutual Funds are
About of all mutual fund managers underperform their benchmark!!!
Why????
Specific Reasons:
What about Hedge Fund or Fund of Funds performance??
Difficult to know..
Performance results suffer from ‘survivorship bias’ and ‘reporting bias’ (also
called backfill bias)
Considering the mutual fund performance disaster, what shall we do ?
Invest passively in
as QQQQ, SPY, DIA, etc
or
(Holding company depositary receipts) as
BBH (Biotech), Internet (HHH) or UTH
(Utilities) etc
First step:
To trade:
Execution
of the trade:
The broker checks the order (in terms of size
and price) and puts it into the pit or computerized
trading system
The execution of the trade is displayed on your
computer screen
Computerized Trading (as the NASDAQ)
AMZN
Bid
Size
Offer
Size
$ 99 300
$ 96 250
$ 94 50
$ 91 100
$ 90 200
$ 88 3000
Book p.13
Computerized Trading (as the NASDAQ)
AMZN
Bid
Size
Offer
Size
$ 99 300
$ 96 250
$ 94 50
$ 91 100
$ 90 200
$ 88 3000
Book p.13
Computerized Trading (as the NASDAQ)
“Level 2” trading allows an investor to see an
ECN (Electronic Communication Network) screen
Difference Gambling - Speculation - Investing
The chances of winning when gambling are
Example:
Exception:
The chances of winning when speculating are
In contrary to speculation,investing is
These days, speculation is done ON MARGIN
This means
Example:
An investor wants to buy Yahoo, which trades at $100.
He buys it on margin, which is 40%, and only pays
The same logic applies to short selling.
Short selling is
Warning: Only speculate with money you can afford to lose
Example:
Two traders quote the following prices for 1oz of Gold
Tokyo
Bid Offer
London
Bid Offer
Is arbitrage possible?
The term Arbitrage is often deliberately misused as
in “Risk-Arbitrage = Take-over Arbitrage” or
“Interest rate Arbitrage = Yield curve Arbitrage”
(Book p.15,16)
The Philosophy of Stock Price Forecasting
Forecast Possible:
No Forecast Possible:
The markets are “efficient”=
All information about a stock
is incorporated in the current
stock price. This is equivalent
to the
“Random Walk Hypothesis”=
• Fundamental Analysis
• Technical Analysis
• Seasonalities
• Times Series Analysis
• Neural Networks
• Chaos Theory
• Econometric Models
(“Outperform the Dow” Book chapter 2)
trading are decisions based on
(Book p.16,17)
Fundamental analysis is trying to forecast the movement of a stock price based on political, economical, sector-specific and company-specific data.
(Book p.16,17)
An Overview of Popular Financial Ratios
1) Earnings Ratios
PE Ratio = Market Price / Earnings per Share
(will be discussed)
PEG Ratio = Market Price / Earnings per Share / Growth Rate
(will be discussed)
(will be discussed)
Earnings per Share = Earnings / Number of Outstanding Stock
(will be discussed)
Dividend Yield = (Annual) Paid Dividend / Current Market Price
2) Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio = Total Current Assets / Total Current Liabilities
Net Working Capital = Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities
Cash Flow = (Cash +Marketable Securities) / Total Current Liabilities
An Overview of Popular Financial Ratios
3) Profitability Ratios
(will be discussed)
Return On Equity = Earnings / Net Worth of Company1)
Operating Profit Margin = Operating Income / Net Sales
Net Profit Margin = Net Income / Net Sales
Book Value = Net worth of company1) / Number of outstanding stock
4) Capitalization Ratios
Debt-to-Equity Ratio (also called leverage) = (Bonds + Preferred Stock) / Net Worth of Company 1)
1) The Net Worth of a company = Shareholders Equity = Total Current Assets – Total Current Liabilities
One of the most important ratios is the price-earnings ratio, PE
The PE is the price of the stock divided by the earnings per
share of the company.
The earnings in the PE ratio can be trailing, current or expected.
If the company is healthy and earnings are growing, the trailing PE ratio is higher than the current PE ratio, which is again higher than the expected (also called forward) PE ratio.
The PE, which is published in newspapers and on screens, is
usually the expected PE.
As an example, if the stock of a company trades at $100 and
next years expected earnings per share is $5, then the
expected PE ratio is
Result:
A fairly new ratio is the Price Earnings Growth ratio, PEG
It is the PE ratio divided by next years expected growth rate:
Example: The price of IBM is $100, the earnings per share is $2,
And the next years expected growth rate is 50 (%).
What is the PEG ratio?
PEG ratios below 1 are considered fairly cheap, PEG’s of over 1
are considered fairly expensive
Of importance is also the earnings per share ratio.
It shows the allocation of the earnings to each share.
For example, if the earnings last year was $10 million and the number of outstanding stock is 10 million shares, the earnings per share is
This number is calculated after deducting taxes and dividends from the earnings.
Closely related to the earnings per share is the return on equity
The return of equity shows how profitable each share is.
Return on equity is calculated as the return (= earnings) divided by the common stock at par (the original issue price of the stock) + capital surplus (difference between the current stock price and the par stock price) + retained earnings.
For example, if the yearly return of a company is $1,000,000, and the sum of common stock at par + capital surplus + retained earnings is $10,000,000, the return on equity is
Another important ratio is the dividend yield
It is the dividend divided by the current price of the
stock.
For example, if the dividend per year is $2 and the price of the stock is $100, then the dividend yield is
High tech stocks e.g. Yahoo often do not pay
a dividend.
Technical analysis is trying to forecast the movement of a stock price from the pattern it has moved in the past.
The philosophy of technical analysis
(Book p.17,18)
Theories of Technical Analysis
a) Simple chart patterns
Trend, support resistance, double tops and bottoms,
triple tops bottoms, head and shoulders, flag
b) Moving average convergence-divergence (MACD)
c) Fibonacci Ratios and Elliot Wave principle
d) Relative strength index (RSI)
(Book p.17-33)
The trend is your friend
An upward trend is a movement with consecutive higher lows and consecutive higher highs:
A downward trend is a movement with consecutive lower lows and consecutive lower highs.
A sideward trend is a movement which does not exceed a certain high and which does not fall below a certain low.
(Book p.18)
a) Simple chart patterns cont.
Support - Resistance
A support level is a level, where the market is expected to
from dropping, and possibly reverse to the upside. If however the support level is broken to the downside, a further significant is to be expected.
A resistance level is a level, where the market is expected to
from rising, and possibly reverse to the downside. If however the resistance is broken to the upside, a further significant is to be expected.
(Book p.22-25)
Breaking of a resistance
(dashed line)
Resistance and support as the
previous low and high
(Book p.22-23)
A support line, created by
connecting previous lows
False breakout
(Book p.23-25)
a) Simple chart patterns cont.
Flag formation with an upward
breakout
(Book p.27-28)
b) Moving average convergence-divergence (MACD)
The MACD uses three exponentially smoothed averages to identify, like the concepts a) through c), a trend reversal or the continuation of a trend.
The MACD indicator reduces to two indicators:
The first, called the MACD1 indicator, is the difference between two exponential averages, usually a 26-day and a 12-day average.
The second, called Signal indicator, is the 9-day moving average of the MACD1 indicator.
The term convergence and divergence refers to a narrowing respectively widening of the MACD1 and the Signal indicator.
A buy signal is given, when the more volatile average, the MACD1 indicator, crosses the less volatile average, the Signal indicator, from beneath. If the MACD1 line crosses the Signal line from above, a sell signal is given.
(Book p.2-29)
Moving average convergence - divergence (MACD)
(Book p.28,29)
b) Moving average convergence-divergence (MACD)
Calculation:
Example:
What is the EMAt for EMAt-1 = 10 and K = 0.2 (9 periods)
Pt = 12
EMAt =
Pt = 8
EMAt =
Pt = 4
EMAt =
So?
Fibonacci Ratios and Elliot Wave Principle
In the 13th century the mathematician Fibonacci discovered a number series with some quite astonishing results.
Adding two numbers to derive a result, then taking the last added number and adding it to the result, gives
1+1=2; 1+2=3; 2+3=5; 3+5=8 and so on, which gives the number series
Dividing consecutive numbers in this series by one another:
Dividing a number by the one following two places behind:
Technical analysts consider these numbers crucial.
(Book p.30)
Fibonacci Ratios and Elliot Wave Principle cont.
In 1946 the retired accountant Ralph Elliot wrote his book "Nature's law - The Secret of the Universe".
In this book he stated the “ElliotWave Principle”.
In its most basic form, the principle says, that markets move in a repetitive cycle of five waves to the upside, followed by three waves to the downside.
Elliot set certain rules for his principle, which are necessary for a certain pattern to qualify as an Elliot wave:
(Book p.30,31)
Fibonacci Ratios and Elliot Wave Principle cont.
Mandatory Elliot Wave rules:
1) correction wave 2 can never retrace more than 100% of wave 1
2) wave 3 can never be the shortest wave of waves 1, 3, or 5
3) the low of wave 4 is higher than the high of wave 1
(Book p.30,31)
Fibonacci Ratios and Elliot Wave Principle cont.
Voluntary Elliot Wave rules based on Fibonacci numbers:
• Highs and lows of the Elliot wave can be expected on day 13, 21, 34, 55,
and 89
The disadvantage of the Elliot Wave principle is the
(Book p.30,31)
The RSI was developed by Welles Wilder in 1978
It is based on the assumption, that after a strong rally the market is overbought and will enter into a downward correction phase.
Similarly, after a strong fall, the market is assumed to be oversold and it will enter into an upward correction phase.
The RSI tries to measure the degree of overboughtness respectively oversoldness and tries to identify, when the correction phase is likely to begin.
The RSI does not work well in markets that have a very
long and strong upward or downward trend.
(Book p.30,31)
Relative strength index (RSI) cont.
The RSI is calculated as
(2.2) RSI = 100 - (100 /( 1 + (Avg Up/Avg Dn)))
Avg Up=Sum of all changes for advancing periods divided by total of periods
Avg Dn = Sum of all changes for declining periods divided by total of periods
An example:
Given these data, Avg Up =
Avg Dn =
According to equation (2.2) RSI =
Due to equation (2.2), the RSI can take values between 0 and 100
(Book p.32)
Relative strength index (RSI) cont.
40-day price movement of a stock
Resulting 10-day RSI
An RSI of over 70 indicates an overbought market; an RSI of below 30 indicates an oversold market.
Result:
Critical appraisal of technical analysis
Technical analysis is not voodoo,
or is it?
Does technical analysis implicitly include fundamental data?
Not much empirical evidence!
Main justification of technical analysis:
(Book p.33)
Trading according to Seasons
Since 1950, 86.97% of the Dow gain occurred in the month from
November to April !!!
Sell in May and go away
(Data since 1968)
Trading according to Seasons cont.
Table of monthly graph
Trading according to Seasons cont.
Trading according to Seasons cont.
From the former table we can see that in 8 out of 12 month, the increase in the first two weeks of the month was higher than in the second half of the month.
The increase in week 3 and 4 was only higher than the increase in week 1 and 2 in
If we look at the absolute changes and sum up all the increases in the first two weeks of each month, we get 73.68%.
Also, 12.53% + 13.94% = 26.47% of the Dow increase occurred in the
Trading according to Seasons cont.
What’s the “best” trading day of the week??
Results do depend on the time frame of data selection
Trading according to Seasons cont.
Result:
Diversification increases the ratio!
their benchmark!
Invest, don’t speculate; If you do speculate, watch the
market and only speculate with the money you can
afford to
lose
small caps and junk bonds in an
Trend is your friend! Enjoy the ride;
don’t try to predict a trend-reversal
Buy beaten up-high tech stocks
Realize once a while!
Is patience is a virtue ?;
admit your are wrong!
What should we base our trading decision on ??
Fundamental analysis ?
Technical analysis ?
Seasons ?
Intuition ?
Bonds
Definition:
A bond is a promissory note. The bond issuer promises to pay a specific sum of cash flows to the bond holder.
Bonds cont.
Types of bonds:
• Savings Bonds: Issued by US Government for small investors,
Denomination from $50, usually local, state, and federal tax
exempt but lower yield than Treasuries
Treasury bills: Maturity up to 1 year, auctions of 91 and 270 day
treasury bills take place weekly, minimum $5,000
Treasury notes: Maturity 1 year to 10 years, minimum $1,000
Treasury bonds: Maturity 10 years to 30 years, minimum $1,000
Treasury Bonds are local and state but not federal tax exempt
Bonds cont.
Types of bonds cont.
•Credit linked bonds
•Inflation linked bonds
(Australian company, which invests in Japan and believes the Yen will devalue, issues a bond in yen, pays yen coupon and returns Australian Dollar at maturity (at maturity the issuer exchanges yen into Austral. $ at a fixed exchange rate, which is guaranteed by the underwriter))
Main differences between bonds and stocks
1) Bond prices return to their issue price (Fish-effect)
Stock prices are assumed normally or log-normally distributed
P
t
T
(Book p.203)
Main differences between bonds and stocks cont.
P
t
T
“Distribution function” of a bond and a stock
(Book p.203)
Main differences between bonds and stocks cont.
Normal versus log-normal distribution of a stock
Result:
(Book p.197)
Main differences between bonds and stocks cont.
Main criteria of stocks
The price of a bond B is the sum of all discounted future
cash flows.
The cash flows of a 5 year coupon bond with a principal
amount of $100 and a 3% annual coupon looks as follows:
1y
2y
3y
4y
5y
B?
Bond pricing cont.
Mathematically, the discounted sum of all future cash flows is
where
B : Bond price
n : number of coupon payments
ct : coupon at time t (known interest rate payments, paid every 6 months in the US)
y : yield to maturity
PA : principal amount
Treating the last coupon and tbe PA as one coupon cn, we get
(4.24)
(Book p.105,106)
Bond pricing cont.
Example 1: What is the price of 4 year 5% annual
coupon bond with a 3% yield and a principal amount of 100?
Example 2: What is the price of 4 year 5%-coupon bond
with a 5% yield and a principal amount of 100?
(Book p.105,106)
Bond pricing cont.
What is the Yield???
b) The yield is the used in the discount factor df = 1 / (1+y)t
to derive the present value (the price of the bond). [FV x df = PV]
c) The yield curve (yield with respect to time) expresses
in an economy for AAA rated bonds
The higher the yield, the better to buy the bond????
Bond pricing cont.
Dirty versus Clean Price
The price found on screens and in newspapers usually the
Clean Price
If an investor buys a bond, he has to pay the clean price
Plus the ACCRUED INTEREST
The accrued interest is the interest that is calculated daily and has
accumulated since the last coupon date
The price that is actually paid when buying the bond is therefore the
Dirty Price =
Clean Price + Accrued Interest
(Book p.291)
Bond pricing cont.
Example: A bond trades at 103.00, has a coupon of 6% and
the last coupon date was 50 days ago. What does an investor
have to pay when he buys the bond?
He has to pay the dirty price, which is the clean price
+ accrued interest:
Naturally, when you sell a bond, you sell it at the
Dirty price
(Book p.291)
Bonds are priced by discounting all the (known) future cash flows back to
today.
The same logic can be applied for stocks.
However, the dividend of a stock is unknown, so we have to make
an assumption about future dividends.
Usually companies let their dividends grow with a constant rate g,
for example 3%.
Also, since stocks do not have a maturity date, we have to use
infinite time periods.
This leads us to the following equation for the price of a stock:
Stocks Pricing with the Constant-Growth Dividend Model
S = Stock price, D0 = last paid Dividend, g = dividend growth rate,
i = discount rate (also called required return of the stock)
Example:
A company's last paid dividend was $2. The growth rate of the dividend
is expected to be 3%. The discount rate is 6%.
What is the stock price using 5 future periods?
Stocks Pricing with the Constant-Growth Dividend Model
Critical Appraisal of the Constant Growth Dividend Model
The model shows the inverse relationship between interest rates and
Stock prices!
The model shows ONE factor that influences the price of a stock.
Other factors are expected revenue and earnings growth rate,
quality of management, market product, competitors, economy,
sector, psychology, legal battles, etc.
Many high-tech companies do not pay a dividend (such as Microsoft
or Yahoo). In this case the constant dividend growth model is of no value
As mentioned earlier, companies often have a long-term moderate growth rate of their dividend.
This policy is supposed to give confidence in the long term prospective of the company.
The share price of companies that have to reduce their dividends, usually suffer a severe decline in the share price.
(Emery p.476f)
The timeline of dividends
Dividend
declaration
date (Amount
and Ex-dividend
date are
announced)
Ex-dividend
date
(Stock price
drops by the
dividend
amount)
Holder of
Record date
(List of share-
holders
is established)
Dividend
payment
date
An investor has to own the stock BEFORE the ex-dividend date in order to
receive the dividend. That is why the stock drops at the dividend date.
Dividends Irrelevance Theorem
There is a school of thought lead by Miller and Modigliani, that the
payment of dividends is irrelevant for a company and that shareholders
should be indifferent to dividends.
The theorem says that the payment of dividends will equal the loss
of price appreciation of a stock. Thus, the share holder is indifferent
to receiving dividends or the stock price increase.
This theorem is correct if the following assumptions hold:
• No transaction costs when selling stocks (Otherwise dividends would
be preferable) or paying dividends (otherwise stock price increases are
preferred.
• Same tax treatment of dividends and share price increases
• The companies management is uninfluenced by dividends and
share price increases
Do theses assumptions hold in reality???
In most countries, like the US, dividends are treated less favorable
from a tax perspective than stock price increases.
One could argue that there is “double taxation” of dividends due
to the fact that they are taxed on a corporate level as income,
and as income for the individual investor.
That is why some countries, like Germany, have a lower tax rate
on dividends than on retained earnings of a company.
If dividends are taxed higher than stock price increases,
it follows, that it is in the companies and share holders interest
that no dividends should be paid!!
It can be argued that some investors simply like receiving dividends
(clientele effect)
This would make a company that pays dividends a popular choice
resulting in an increasing stock price. However, these days investors
behave fairly rational, and the clientele effect should be rater small.
Conclusion of dividend policy:
The Time Value of Money cont.
How much less is a dollar worth in the future?
a) Without interest on interest:
$100 now are worth in three years with 10% pa:
FV : Future value
PV : Present value
i : interest rate pa
n : time in years
FV = PV (1 + i n)
Book p. 73
The Time Value of Money cont.
b) with discrete interest on interest
b1) annual interest on interest
FV = PV (1+i)n
100
1y
2y
3y
The Time Value of Money cont.
b2) semiannual interest on interest
withm = 2
FV = PV (1+i/m)nm
b3) monthly interest on interest
FV = PV (1+i/m)nm
withm = 12
(Book p. 74)
The Time Value of Money cont.
c) continuously compounded interest on interest
With m infinity,
FV = PV (1+i/m)nm becomes
e = Eulers number = 2.7182...
(Book p. 74)
The Time Value of Money - Application
Guaranteed return on investment
GROI stand for
The investor invests $10,000 and is guaranteed at least $10,000 at maturity
How does that work???
The arranger takes a certain amount, invests it at the risk free rate and
takes the rest to invest in a risky trade.
Example: A Groi has an original investment of $10,000, 7 year maturity,
annual interest rate 6%. How much does the arranger invest
in the risk-free asset to guarantee the payback of $10,000?
=
(The $ grows to in 7 years, since
The rest,
may grow to
$3,349
invested in
risky asset
$6,651
Invested in
risk-free
asset
grows to
T
t0
a1) To convert a sub-annual rate into an annual rate, we use
(3.7) Eff = ((Nom / m) + 1) m -1
where
Eff : annual interest rate (effective rate)
Nom : sub-annual interest rate (nominal rate)
m : interest rate payment frequency per year
Thus, a semiannual rate of 9.84% equals an annual rate of
A quarterly rate of 9.84% equals an annual rate of
Book p.75
Converting Interest Rates cont.
a2) Converting an annual (effective) rate into a sub-annual
(nominal) rate, so solving equation (3.7) for Nom, gives
So an annual (effective) rate of 10.08% results in an semiannual (nominal) rate of
An annual (effective) rate of 0.1021 results in a
quarterly (nominal) rate of
Book p. 75
Converting Interest Rates cont.
b1)The conversion of an annual or sub-annual, also called discrete rate, into a continuously compounded rate, is done by equation
(3.9) ln (1 + Dis / m ) * m = cc
where
ln : natural logarithm
Dis : discrete interest rate (annual, sub-annual, etc.)
m : interest rate payment frequency per year
cc : continuously compounded interest rate
So an annual (discrete or effective) rate of 10.08% results in a continuously compounded rate of
A semiannual (discrete) rate of 9.84% results in a continuously compounded rate of
(Book p. 75,76)
Converting Interest Rates cont.
b2) Converting a continuously compounded rate into a discrete rate, so solving (3.9) for Dis, gives
(3.10) Dis = (ecc/m - 1) * m
where Dis, cc, and m are defined as in equation (3.9)
A continuously compounded rate of 10% is equal to an annual rate
of
A continuously compoundedrate of 9.61% is equal to a semiannual rate
of
(Book p. 75,76)
What is the APR (Annual Percentage Rate)?
An APR is a nominal interest rate!, thus it ignores interest
on interest.
The APR is calculated as the sub-annual rate (Nom)
times the number payments in a year (m).
APR = Nom * m
Example 1:
An entrepreneur pays 2% interest every 3 months. What
is the APR?
Thus, interest on interest is ignored
What is the APR (Annual Percentage Rate) cont.
Example 2:
A car dealer tells you the APR, which has to be paid
twice a year is 4%. What do you have to pay and when?
Thus, interest on interest is ignored.
What is the APR (Annual Percentage Rate) cont.
Example 2 cont:
The car dealer tells you to pay 2% every 6 months, thus the
nominal interest rate is 4%.
What is the effective (= annual and “real”, ) interest rate?
We use equation:
Therefore the effective (=annual) interest rate is
Result:
Capital budgeting is another term for the
Investment decision process
When should a company do a certain investment???
Also, an investment can be done because of strategic reasons:
(Emery p.298f)
Criteria for the Investment Decision
(How can we tell, if a an investment will be good or bad)
Net present value criteria:
Do the investment if the net present value of all future cash flows is >0.
NPV : net present value
CFt :outgoing and incoming cash flow at time t (after tax)
k : discount rate (=required rate of return)
IO : Initial cash outlay
Net present value criteria cont.
Example:
Volkswagen is considering investing in a new 3-Liter car.
The company expects an initial investment in R&D
(research and development) of $10,000,000.
It expects negative outflows in year 1 and 2 of $2,000,000
and $1,000,000 resp.. It expects profits in year 3 and 4 of
$4,000,000 and $5,000,000 resp. and $8,000,000 for the
years 5. The discount factor is 4%.
Should Volkswagen build the 3-Liter car?
NPV =
Result:
Capital Budgeting cont.
Closely related to the NPV criteria is the
Profitability Index or Benefit/Cost ratio
According to the profitability index, should Volkswagen do the
investment?
PI=
Result:
Comparing the NPV criteria and the PI Index
If the NPV is positive, it follows that the PI will be
Thus, the NPV criteria and the PI index are basically identical.
Advantage of NPV and PI:
Disadvantage of NPV and PI:
Capital Budgeting cont.
Internal rate of return (IRR)
The internal rate of return measures the return or profit of
the investment.
It is equivalent to the yield of a bond!!
Mathematically, the IRR is the discount rate, that guarantees
the future cash flows of the investment (CF) equal the initial
outflow (IO):
Features of the Internal rate of return (IRR)
Unfortunately, we can’t solve the equation
easily for IRR (we have to use search
procedures) like Newton-Raphson)
Usually , a company has a target IRR. If the calculated
IRR is higher than the target IRR, so investment is
done, vice versa.
As the yield of the bond, the IRR concept (and the NPV
and the PI assume), that all cash flows are reinvested at
the discount = IRR rate. This is obviously a disadvantage.
The drawback, that in the IRR model the cash flows are reinvested
at the IRR rate, is solved in the MIRR model.
In the MIRR model the cash flows are reinvested at the MIRR rate.
The MIRR rate can be calculated in 2 steps:
1) Calculate the future value of the cash flows using
2) Calculate the MIRR using
(is derived from )
Example:
A company has an IO of $1,000, and expects inflows of $300 at the end
of year 1, $400 at the end of year 2, $500 at the end of year 3 and $600 at
the end of year 4. The cash flows are expected to be reinvested at 15%.
What is the MIRR rate?
1) The future value of the cash flows is, following
FV =
the MIRR is
2) Using
As a comparison, the standard IRR of the above example is
24.89% (see ECXEL file NPV IRR comparison)
Comparing the NPV and IRR Method
Question:
If the NPV and IRR model return different results, what model
should we trust???
Example:
(see EXCEL file
“NPV IRR comparison”)
Solution:
Compare the NPV and IRR of the differencein cash flows
Comparing the NPV and IRR Method
Result:
Firstly, the Yield Curve (= Interest rate curve) in an economy
is usually steep
Yield curves of the US, Germany and Japan on July 15, 1998
Result: Investing money short term results in a lower return
(Emery p.579f)
Working Capital Management cont.
Liquidity is
the ability to pay off debt
Profitability is
the ability to make profits
Working capital and liquidity are often used as synonyms and
consist of cash and short term assets.
Short Term assets consist of treasury bills, commercial paper
(issued by banks and corporations) and CD’s (issued by banks)
Net working capital is the difference between short term assets
and short term liabilities.
Net working capital has to be positive, otherwise you are
Working Capital Management cont.
The working capital trade off is
the trade-off between liquidity and profitability
The higher the liquidity (=cash and short term assets) the
the risk of defaulting on debt , but
The lower the liquidity (=cash and short term assets) the
the profitability (long term assets and investment in the firm’s
business), but
Working Capital Management cont.
How can we solve the liquidity - profitability trade-off??
We can reduce the trade-off by the
Maturity Matching Principle
Match long term investments (real estate, trucks, machinery) with
Short term assets (computers, software) can be matched with
Financial Forecasting and Budgeting
Forecasting in financial management is necessary to determine
a companies financial need.
Financial Forecasting is principally done in 3 steps:
1. Forecasting of the companies sales revenues and other income
over the planing period.
2. Forecasting of the level of necessary investments and other
expenses
3. Use 1. and 2 to determine the financial need
((Emery p.648f))
Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.
Important for a company is the forecast of Sales.
There are many forecasting methods is finance:
Linear regression analysis, Non-linear regression analysis,
Multi-variate regression analysis, Time series analysis,
Econometric models, Stochastic processes, Monte-Carlo
simulation and more
Lets look at a linear regression-analysis to forecast sales:
Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.
One form of regression analysis is time series analysis.
In time series analysis time t is on the x-axis.
Example:
Let’s assume the sales of Turbodyne (TRBD) are:
In January $30,000, in February $34,000, in March $35,000
and in April 39,000.
What are the expected sales in May, calculated on a linear
time series analysis?
Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.
Sales
r
$40,000
$30,000
time t
1
2
3
4
5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
The goal is to find a linear regression function r, which minimizes
the differences between the observed points and r.
We then extrapolate r to find the sales for May.
Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.
Sales
r
$40,000
S
b =
$30,000
t
a
time t
1
2
3
4
5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
In order to find the regression function r, we have to find a and b.
Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.
a =
b =
where
n:
number of observations
average of times t;
average of times S;
Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.
With
t = 1,2,3,4 and
S= 30,000; 34,000; 35,000; 39,000
b =
a =
Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.
It follows that the estimated Sales at time t =5,
so in May, are
S = a +b t =
This forecast is based on the assumption, that the sales
will increase linearly on the basis of historical data.
Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.
The Sales forecast is often used as a basis to plan other
financial items, such as inventories.
The Percent of sales method for Financial Forecasting uses a
linear forecasting:
Inventories
30,000
20,000
Forecasted
Sales
30,000
70,000
Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.
Creating a budget
A budget tells you what you can’t afford, but it doesn’t keep
you from buying it (William Feather)
A budget is an estimate of revenues and expenditures.
Revenue =
Number of sales * price per sales unit
Example:
Dell sells 1 million PC’s in the year 2000 for $500 each.
What is Dell’s revenue for 2000?
A Cash-budget estimates a company’s necessary financial needs
based on expected revenues and expenditures.
((Emery p.648f))
Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.
A Cash budget consists of
Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.
Creating a cash budget
Financial Forecasting and Budgeting cont.
Creating a cash- budget
a) The annual market interest rate is 10%. An investor wants to
invest $1000 for 5 years.
The banker offers the client to pay back $1000 + $1000 * 0.1 * 5
= $1,500. Is the banker trying to rip off the client?
b) If you were the banker, what would you pay back to the
client after 5 years?
a)The annual coupon of a bond is 5%. The annual yield is
also 5%. What is the price of the bond with a principal of $1000?
b) What is the 20 day accrued interest of the bond?
c) What is the difference between the coupon of a bond and
the dividend of a stock?
a) After attending the Fin300 class at HPU, you have become a
successful financial advisor. One of your clients wants to invest
$100,000 dollars. What are the two questions you ask him first?
b) Your client wants to open up a savings account. What is your
reply
c)What do you suggest to the client as investment alternatives?
The number e -Eulers number- is an irrational number (a
number that cannot be divided by tow integers (an integer is
a number without decimals, so -3 and 4 are integers,
-3.1 or 4.55 are not)
The value of e = 2.71828182…. The decimals of e are indefinite
Mathematically e = 1+ 1/1! + 1/2! + 1/3! =… = (1 + 1/m) m
with m to infinity
e has nice features such as if y = e x then y’ = e x
y = e f(x) then y’ = f’(x) e f(x)
The logarithm of the number N to the base a is the exponent to
which x has to raised to yield N. Thus
Loga N = x if and only if ax = N
Examples:
Log 10 1 = 0 since 100 = 1
Log 10 10 = 1
Log 10 100 = 2
Log 10 1000 = 3
Log 4 16 =
Log 10 (0.001) =
If the base of the logarithm is e, the logarithm is called
natural logarithm.
Log e = ln
Examples:
ln 1 = 0 since 2.71830 = 1
ln 10 = 2.326 since 2.71832.3026 = 10
ln 100 = 4.6052 since 2.71834.6052 = 100
ln -3
Three important rules apply to logarithms:
a) ln (a * b) = ln a + ln b
b) ln (a / b) = ln a - ln b
c) ln ab = b * ln a
Rule c) comes in handy for solving equations:
Solve for x, when 10x = 7, using rule c)
Mathematically logarithms have nice features such as
If y = ln x then y’ = 1/x
If y = ax then y’ = ax ln a
Graphically ln x and e are reflected across the y = x line
y
y = ex
y = x
y = ln x
1
x
1
Logarithmic functions are often used in psychology to
explain human behavior.