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[Slides] Disruptive Technology Outlook 2012, by Charlene Li

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[Slides] Disruptive Technology Outlook 2012, by Charlene Li

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  1. February 17, 2011 Charlene Li Founder and Partner Hot Or Not: Disruptive Technologies To Watch in 2011

  2. Source: Wordle.net

  3. Prioritizing disruptions that matter • User Experience • Is it easy for people to use? • Does it enable people to connect in new ways? • Business Model • Does it tap new revenue streams? • Is it done at a lower cost? • Ecosystem Value • Does it change the flow of value? • Does it shift power from one player to another?

  4. 1) Likenomics (credit to RohitBhargava) “How personal relationships, individual opinions, powerful storytelling and social capital are helping brands…become more believable.” Understand the supply, demand, and thus, value of Likes as social currency See http://bit.ly/rohit-likenomics for Rohit’s take

  5. Likenomics evaluation • User experience impact - moderate • People with high social currency will enjoy benefits, richer experiences, receive psychic income. • People with low social currency will find ways to get it. • Business model impact – moderate • New economics create opportunity for people who understand Likenomics to leverage gas. • The cost of accessing social currency will increase, and raise barriers to entry. • Ecosystem value impact – none

  6. 2) Buy 2.0 • Special deals for special people • Group Buying, Flash Sales, Member Sales, etc. • Gilt, Ruelala, iDeeli, Facebook Deals • Local sales and retailers • Group buying variation: Groupon and Living Social • In-store check-ins: Shopkick and Checkpoints • Dynamic pricing • Off and Away and Swoopo • Mobile price checking • Amazon mobile apps, eBay platform • New payment methods: Square and Facebook Credits

  7. How shopping will change Store knows it’s me I walk into the store And maps out planned and promoted products

  8. Buy 2.0 evaluation • User experience impact - High • New ways to buy and connect with each other and retailers. • Business model impact – Moderate • Acquisition costs can increase/decrease substantially with adoption. • Increased noise/clutter requires more marketing. • Ecosystem value impact – Moderate • New entrants like GroupOn become intermediaries.

  9. 3) Social Search – Beyond Friends Social sharing rises as a search ranking signal, esp in the enterprise Create a social content hub to gain traction Use microformats to highlight granularity (e.g. hProduct & hReview)

  10. Social Search evaluation • User experience impact - Moderate • Search becomes more useful, relevant to people. • Business model impact – Moderate • SEO takes on a different dimension, rewards companies with social currency, personalized experiences. • Ecosystem value impact – Moderate • New power brokers are social data/profile players who capture activity data and profiles. • Google has little of either.

  11. 4) Big Data • Social monitoring merges with Web analytics • HOT: Omniture, Coremetrics/IBM, Webtrends • Technology like Hadoop makes it easy for companies to tap “Big Data” • E.g. New York Times making its archives public • Twitter archived by Library of Congress • Facebook Cassandra, Amazon Dynamo, Google BigTable • Data visualization tools make it easy to digest • Balancing privacy and personalization

  12. Big Data evaluation • User experience impact - Low • Most users won’t directly experience Big Data. • Business model impact – High • New businesses and initiatives can be started at very low cost. • Ecosystem value impact – Moderate • Owners of Big Data repositories can assert control, demand payments for access.

  13. 5) Enterprise Social Networking

  14. Enterprise Social Networking evaluation • User experience impact – High • Work gets social, employees get connected to each other. • Business model impact – Moderate • Work gets done faster, cheaper. • New organizational structures and cultures emerge. • Ecosystem value impact – Moderate • Traditional enterprise application players face new, more nimble entrants.

  15. 6) Game-ification

  16. TurboTaxused “games” to encourage sharing and support Social design can enter training, collaboration, support, hiring

  17. Gamification evaluation • User experience impact – High • Experiences get richer, more engaging • Business model impact – Moderate • Work gets done faster, cheaper. • New organizational structures and cultures emerge. • Ecosystem value impact – Low • Service providers will remain focused, boutique firms.

  18. 7) Print extensions QR Codes Imagine images as Bit.ly codes

  19. Print extensions evaluation • User experience impact – Moderate • Users get new ways to get information quickly. • No need to download special software, understand quirky images. • Business model impact – Moderate • Leverage print investment to extend further into buying process. • Impacts importance of SEO. • Ecosystem value impact – Low • Standards, not new service providers, play a role.

  20. Print extensions evaluation • User experience impact – Moderate • Users get new power, earn social status, when they become curators. • Business model impact – Moderate • Lower cost of acquisition. • Ecosystem value impact – Moderate • Standards, not new service providers, play a role.

  21. 8)DIY and Co-creation

  22. DIY an Co-creation evaluation • User experience impact – Moderate • Users become more loyal/engaged with organizations that invite them in. • Develop a sense of shared ownership in the success of the organization. • Business model impact – High • Reduced merchandising costs. • Reduced marketing costs due to viral loop. • Ecosystem value impact – Low • Mostly home-grown, internal development.

  23. 9) Curation

  24. Curation evaluation • User experience impact – Moderate • Users gain new power as market influencers. • Business model impact – Low • Low unless tapped as part of Co-creation initiative. • Ecosystem value impact – Moderate • Power shifts to users who steal attention and loyalty from established players.

  25. Not Hot Yet in 2011: Augmented Reality When scanning tech improves, will get hot

  26. Augmented Reality evaluation • User experience impact – Moderate • Still hard to use, limited availability. • But when available, creates unique, new experience. • Business model impact – Low • Unclear if new experiences lower costs, raise revenues. • Ecosystem value impact – Low • Few intermediaries emerge in new experiences. • Usually home-grown.

  27. To Watch: Quora – Quality Q&A? Monitor your brand Engage by being helpful

  28. Summary of disruptions

  29. Bonus #1: Transparency

  30. Bonus #2: Leadership How to be out of control and still in command

  31. Preparing for disruption It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change. - Charles Darwin

  32. Charlene Li charlene@altimetergroup.com charleneli.com/blog Twitter: charleneli For slides, send an email to slides@altimetergroup.com For more information & to buy the book visit open-leadership.com © 2010 Altimeter Group

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