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Strategic Technology Outlook Process for Formulating an R&D Strategy by Integrating Business Directions with Technology Foresight and Capabilities United Technologies Research Center September 16, 1999 Desired Outcome Technology plans for each Business Unit (BU)

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Strategic technology outlook l.jpg

Strategic Technology Outlook

Process for Formulating an R&D Strategy by Integrating Business Directions with Technology Foresight and Capabilities

United Technologies Research Center

September 16, 1999


Desired outcome l.jpg
Desired Outcome

  • Technology plans for each Business Unit (BU)

    • 2-3 technologies for marketplace redefinition

    • technologies that support business and product/service strategies

  • BU-integrated strategy for UTRC

    • technology innovations required (context for emerging ideas and “gamechangers”)

    • strategy for synergy across BU’s and risk reduction

    • distinctive competencies and capabilities required to support present and future BU technology plans


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Strategic Technology Outlook

Current

Future

Business Environment

Business Scenarios

Key Strategic Drivers

Product/Process Challenges and

New Product/Process Opportunities

Technology Outlook

Emerging Ideas

Potential Gamechangers

Gamechangers

Competencies & Capabilities


Slide4 l.jpg

Strategic Technology Outlook

Current

Future

Business Environment

Business Scenarios

Key Strategic Drivers

Product/Process Challenges and

New Product/Process Opportunities

Technology Outlook

Emerging Ideas

Potential Gamechangers

Gamechangers

Competencies & Capabilities


Current business environment l.jpg
Current Business Environment

  • Current business environment and product/process/service challenges summarized in a “T” chart (one chart for each business unit)

Business Environment

Product/Process Challenges


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No end in sight to cost/price pressures

Development and manufacturing costs (cite data)

Commercial products heavily discounted to meet competition (cite data)

Competitors aggressively growing installed base by sales (cite data)

Competitors aggressively growing aftermarket business by acquisitions (cite data)

Customers’ orders for product line W … (cite data); for product line N … (cite data); for product line R … (cite data)

BU2’s response to the wide-body market is …

BU2’s response to the narrow-body market is …

BU2’s response to the regional market is …

Orders for military product lines … (cite data)

BU2’s military product strategy is ...

Growth opportunities are in the following areas …

Increasing environmental stringency on noise (cite data)

Product / Process

Challenges and Opportunities

Development and Manufacturing Cost

Reduce part count

New product family

One-build product design

Greener materials and processes

Competitive differentiation

Increased reliability

Quiet product

Ease of maintenance

Aftermarket

Repair technologies

Integrated diagnostics and prognostics

Asset management

Shorten turn-around times

Example: BU2

Business Environment


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Strategic Technology Outlook

Current

Future

Business Environment

Business Scenarios

Key Strategic Drivers

Product/Process Challenges and

New Product/Process Opportunities

Technology Outlook

Emerging Ideas

Potential Gamechangers

Gamechangers

Competencies & Capabilities


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Future Business Scenarios

  • Understand our “Business Intent” for making money

  • Focus on major strategic business issues/dilemmas

    • decisions required about future directions

    • decisions within our control

  • Construct future scenarios

    • imaginedor perceived social, economic, political, technological, or ecological mega-trends, situations, and events

    • relevant to major strategic business issues

    • plausible realizations, sometimes outside of our control

  • Play emerging technology “cards” in each scenario

  • Analyze and synthesize strategies, technologies, capabilities

    • robustness to scenarios

    • fit with “Business Intent” (or needed modification)


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Issues Shaping UTC’s Future

*

* Subject used in example


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Five Scenarios

Bombay

Large emerging markets; Rapid growth

of mega-cities; Focus on infrastructure

development.

Hertz

Most capital goods are leased, not purchased for ownership; Customers demand no

down-time, low

acquisition

costs, and real-time

accommodation of

changing needs.

Clockspeed

  • Social

  • Political

  • Environmental

  • Science & Technology

  • Economic

  • Financial

Speed of business is firm’s one competitive advantage, driven by competitive intensity and technological innovation; meta-competency is management of capabilities supply chain

Netscape

Green

Information age is commercial driver;

Seamless and unrestricted communications;

Information democracy; Information Marketplace

Protection of environment is no. 1 priority;

Depletion of raw material resources; Stagnant or

falling standard of living; Negative GDP growth


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Use of Scenarios: ExampleDilemma -- Components or Systems Business?

Netscape

Bombay

Clockspeed

Hertz

Green

Robust Winning Strategy for UTC

(if Netscape, Hertz, Green come true)

Components

User-Centric

Systems

Market-Centric

Systems

Components-to-Systems Continuum


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Example: Aircraft Engine Business

No

Improvement

Buchanan

Bombay

Hertz

Noise and Emissions Regulations

Constant

Improvement

Green

Netscape

Negative 5%/yr

Positive 5%/yr

Growth of Aircraft Market


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Strategic Technology Outlook

Current

Future

Business Environment

Business Scenarios

Key Strategic Drivers

Product/Process Challenges and

New Product/Process Opportunities

Technology Outlook

Emerging Ideas

Potential Gamechangers

Gamechangers

Competencies & Capabilities


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UTC Key Strategic Drivers

  • Revenue Growth

    • grow with the market

    • increase share of market

  • Industry Consolidation

    • acquisitions

  • Margin Expansion

    • engineering and product development

    • quality/reliability

    • supply management

    • shared services

    • cost reduction

Importance of Drivers Will Be Different for Each BU


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Strategic Technology Outlook

Current

Future

Business Environment

Business Scenarios

Key Strategic Drivers

Product/Process Challenges and

New Product/Process Opportunities

Technology Outlook

Emerging Ideas

Potential Gamechangers

Gamechangers

Competencies & Capabilities


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Strategic Technology Outlook

Current

Future

Business Environment

Business Scenarios

Key Strategic Drivers

Emerging

Technologies

Product/Process Challenges and

New Product/Process Opportunities

Technology Outlook

Emerging Ideas

Potential Gamechangers

Gamechangers

Competencies & Capabilities


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Emerging Technologies

  • The technologies important to UTC’s future [10-year horizon] are known now

    • emerging and developing technologies not yet exploited by UTC

    • full importance and impact is usually not known

  • Impact of emerging technologies

    • emerging technologies are “mini scenarios”

    • to assess impact: play emerging technologies as wildcards in the main scenarios and drivers

    • combine powerful synergies into themes (e.g., information technology; modeling, analysis, simulation, and computation; aftermarket technology; green products and processes)


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Customer

  • Price

  • Reliable Function

  • Customer Service

  • User Interface

Products

  • Communications/Software

  • Controller/Sensors & Actuators

  • Mechanical Components

Enterprise

  • Manufacturing

  • Product Development

Example: Information Technology

Customer Service Scenario

Product Scenario

Enterprise Scenario


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Manufacturing Plant

Enterprise Productivity Scenario

Pro-E

Pro-M

MES

Employees

Customers

Suppliers

Partners

IPD Team

Supplier

Distribution


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Product Scenario

(Smart Products)

Service Center

  • Information repository

  • User Services

  • Building Integration

  • Security

  • Optimal Dispatch

  • Safety & Ride Quality

  • Upgradable Features

  • AVOS

  • Auto PC

  • Smart Badge


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Customer Service Scenario

(Smart Service)

Airport

Airport

Parts Factory

Service Center

5


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Longer Range Emerging TechnologiesWildcards in Scenarios - Materials Example


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Strategic Technology Outlook

Current

Future

Business Environment

Business Scenarios

Key Strategic Drivers

Product/Process Challenges and

New Product/Process Opportunities

Technology Outlook

Emerging Ideas

Potential Gamechangers

Gamechangers

Competencies & Capabilities


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Importance of Technology Capabilities to BU1

BU1 2000+

Technologies for Market Re-definition


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Strategic Technology Outlook

Current

Future

Business Environment

Business Scenarios

Key Strategic Drivers

Product/Process Challenges and

New Product/Process Opportunities

Technology Outlook

Emerging Ideas

Potential Gamechangers

Gamechangers

Competencies & Capabilities


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Technology Capabilities -- by Department

  • Catalog your department’s present core and enabling technology capability areas together with a numerical estimate of your department’s capability gaps in these areas.

  • Use Quality Function Deployment (QFD) to derive the numerical importance of your department’s core and enabling technology capability areas to the needs of UTC’s business units

  • Integrate your analyses into a Technology Capability Portfolio.

  • Define your department’s strategy by going through a structured, question-driven development process that blends your knowledge and intuition with the preceding analyses.

  • Implement a quality check of your strategy.


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Technology Capabilities Portfolio and Strategy

Strengthen

Protect

C

B

G

F

A

D

E

Watch/

Abandon

Maintain/

Watch