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  1. Strategic Technology Outlook Process for Formulating an R&D Strategy by Integrating Business Directions with Technology Foresight and Capabilities United Technologies Research Center September 16, 1999

  2. Desired Outcome • Technology plans for each Business Unit (BU) • 2-3 technologies for marketplace redefinition • technologies that support business and product/service strategies • BU-integrated strategy for UTRC • technology innovations required (context for emerging ideas and “gamechangers”) • strategy for synergy across BU’s and risk reduction • distinctive competencies and capabilities required to support present and future BU technology plans

  3. Strategic Technology Outlook Current Future Business Environment Business Scenarios Key Strategic Drivers Product/Process Challenges and New Product/Process Opportunities Technology Outlook Emerging Ideas Potential Gamechangers Gamechangers Competencies & Capabilities

  4. Strategic Technology Outlook Current Future Business Environment Business Scenarios Key Strategic Drivers Product/Process Challenges and New Product/Process Opportunities Technology Outlook Emerging Ideas Potential Gamechangers Gamechangers Competencies & Capabilities

  5. Current Business Environment • Current business environment and product/process/service challenges summarized in a “T” chart (one chart for each business unit) Business Environment Product/Process Challenges

  6. No end in sight to cost/price pressures Development and manufacturing costs (cite data) Commercial products heavily discounted to meet competition (cite data) Competitors aggressively growing installed base by sales (cite data) Competitors aggressively growing aftermarket business by acquisitions (cite data) Customers’ orders for product line W … (cite data); for product line N … (cite data); for product line R … (cite data) BU2’s response to the wide-body market is … BU2’s response to the narrow-body market is … BU2’s response to the regional market is … Orders for military product lines … (cite data) BU2’s military product strategy is ... Growth opportunities are in the following areas … Increasing environmental stringency on noise (cite data) Product / Process Challenges and Opportunities Development and Manufacturing Cost Reduce part count New product family One-build product design Greener materials and processes Competitive differentiation Increased reliability Quiet product Ease of maintenance Aftermarket Repair technologies Integrated diagnostics and prognostics Asset management Shorten turn-around times Example: BU2 Business Environment

  7. Strategic Technology Outlook Current Future Business Environment Business Scenarios Key Strategic Drivers Product/Process Challenges and New Product/Process Opportunities Technology Outlook Emerging Ideas Potential Gamechangers Gamechangers Competencies & Capabilities

  8. Future Business Scenarios • Understand our “Business Intent” for making money • Focus on major strategic business issues/dilemmas • decisions required about future directions • decisions within our control • Construct future scenarios • imaginedor perceived social, economic, political, technological, or ecological mega-trends, situations, and events • relevant to major strategic business issues • plausible realizations, sometimes outside of our control • Play emerging technology “cards” in each scenario • Analyze and synthesize strategies, technologies, capabilities • robustness to scenarios • fit with “Business Intent” (or needed modification)

  9. Issues Shaping UTC’s Future * * Subject used in example

  10. Five Scenarios Bombay Large emerging markets; Rapid growth of mega-cities; Focus on infrastructure development. Hertz Most capital goods are leased, not purchased for ownership; Customers demand no down-time, low acquisition costs, and real-time accommodation of changing needs. Clockspeed • Social • Political • Environmental • Science & Technology • Economic • Financial Speed of business is firm’s one competitive advantage, driven by competitive intensity and technological innovation; meta-competency is management of capabilities supply chain Netscape Green Information age is commercial driver; Seamless and unrestricted communications; Information democracy; Information Marketplace Protection of environment is no. 1 priority; Depletion of raw material resources; Stagnant or falling standard of living; Negative GDP growth

  11. Use of Scenarios: ExampleDilemma -- Components or Systems Business? Netscape Bombay Clockspeed Hertz Green Robust Winning Strategy for UTC (if Netscape, Hertz, Green come true) Components User-Centric Systems Market-Centric Systems Components-to-Systems Continuum

  12. Example: Aircraft Engine Business No Improvement Buchanan Bombay Hertz Noise and Emissions Regulations Constant Improvement Green Netscape Negative 5%/yr Positive 5%/yr Growth of Aircraft Market

  13. Strategic Technology Outlook Current Future Business Environment Business Scenarios Key Strategic Drivers Product/Process Challenges and New Product/Process Opportunities Technology Outlook Emerging Ideas Potential Gamechangers Gamechangers Competencies & Capabilities

  14. UTC Key Strategic Drivers • Revenue Growth • grow with the market • increase share of market • Industry Consolidation • acquisitions • Margin Expansion • engineering and product development • quality/reliability • supply management • shared services • cost reduction Importance of Drivers Will Be Different for Each BU

  15. Strategic Technology Outlook Current Future Business Environment Business Scenarios Key Strategic Drivers Product/Process Challenges and New Product/Process Opportunities Technology Outlook Emerging Ideas Potential Gamechangers Gamechangers Competencies & Capabilities

  16. Strategic Technology Outlook Current Future Business Environment Business Scenarios Key Strategic Drivers Emerging Technologies Product/Process Challenges and New Product/Process Opportunities Technology Outlook Emerging Ideas Potential Gamechangers Gamechangers Competencies & Capabilities

  17. Emerging Technologies • The technologies important to UTC’s future [10-year horizon] are known now • emerging and developing technologies not yet exploited by UTC • full importance and impact is usually not known • Impact of emerging technologies • emerging technologies are “mini scenarios” • to assess impact: play emerging technologies as wildcards in the main scenarios and drivers • combine powerful synergies into themes (e.g., information technology; modeling, analysis, simulation, and computation; aftermarket technology; green products and processes)

  18. Customer • Price • Reliable Function • Customer Service • User Interface Products • Communications/Software • Controller/Sensors & Actuators • Mechanical Components Enterprise • Manufacturing • Product Development Example: Information Technology Customer Service Scenario Product Scenario Enterprise Scenario

  19. Manufacturing Plant Enterprise Productivity Scenario Pro-E Pro-M MES Employees Customers Suppliers Partners IPD Team Supplier Distribution

  20. Product Scenario (Smart Products) Service Center • Information repository • User Services • Building Integration • Security • Optimal Dispatch • Safety & Ride Quality • Upgradable Features • AVOS • Auto PC • Smart Badge

  21. Customer Service Scenario (Smart Service) Airport Airport Parts Factory Service Center 5

  22. Longer Range Emerging TechnologiesWildcards in Scenarios - Materials Example

  23. Strategic Technology Outlook Current Future Business Environment Business Scenarios Key Strategic Drivers Product/Process Challenges and New Product/Process Opportunities Technology Outlook Emerging Ideas Potential Gamechangers Gamechangers Competencies & Capabilities

  24. Importance of Technology Capabilities to BU1 BU1 2000+ Technologies for Market Re-definition

  25. Strategic Technology Outlook Current Future Business Environment Business Scenarios Key Strategic Drivers Product/Process Challenges and New Product/Process Opportunities Technology Outlook Emerging Ideas Potential Gamechangers Gamechangers Competencies & Capabilities

  26. Technology Capabilities -- by Department • Catalog your department’s present core and enabling technology capability areas together with a numerical estimate of your department’s capability gaps in these areas. • Use Quality Function Deployment (QFD) to derive the numerical importance of your department’s core and enabling technology capability areas to the needs of UTC’s business units • Integrate your analyses into a Technology Capability Portfolio. • Define your department’s strategy by going through a structured, question-driven development process that blends your knowledge and intuition with the preceding analyses. • Implement a quality check of your strategy.

  27. Technology Capabilities Portfolio and Strategy Strengthen Protect C B G F A D E Watch/ Abandon Maintain/ Watch