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APRIL 16, 2007. Demand Planning EBS Advanced Planning vs. Demantra Demand Management. Nick Roppolo Principal Consultant Special Thanks to: Glenn Hoormann, Michael Pearson and Gerry O’Sullivan. Sony PlayStation 3. What would you do?. What would you do?. To avoid this….

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demand planning ebs advanced planning vs demantra demand management

APRIL 16, 2007

Demand PlanningEBS Advanced Planning vs. Demantra Demand Management

Nick Roppolo

Principal Consultant

Special Thanks to:

Glenn Hoormann, Michael Pearson and Gerry O’Sullivan

sony playstation 3
Sony PlayStation 3

What would you do?

what would you do
What would you do?

To avoid this….

what would you do6
What would you do?

To get this…

demand planning ebs advanced planning vs demantra demand management7

APRIL 16, 2007

Demand PlanningEBS Advanced Planning vs. Demantra Demand Management

Nick Roppolo

Principal Consultant

Special Thanks to:

Glenn Hoormann, Michael Pearson and Gerry O’Sullivan

sony playstation 38
Sony PlayStation 3
  • Major Release of a new product
  • Demand for product extremely high initially
  • Selling on E-Bay for 4x retail
  • Did they Have a Plan?
agenda
Agenda

OBJECTIVES

Demand Planning Concepts

Discuss EBS Demand Planning

Discuss Oracle Demantra Demand Planning

  • Introductions
  • Demand Planning: Concepts
  • Oracle Demand Planning
  • Oracle Demantra
  • Q & A
collaborative forecasting planning and replenishment cfpr
Focuses the Trading Partner Network on the Consumer

Single Demand Forecast across the value chain.

Trading Partners share risk of removing supply process constraints.

Collaborative Forecasting, Planning and Replenishment (CFPR)
collaborative forecasting planning and replenishment cfpr13
Establish a Collaborative Relationship

Create a Joint Business Plan

Create Sales Forecast

Identify Exceptions in Sales Forecast

Resolve/Collaborate on Exception Items

Create Order Forecast

Identify Exceptions to Order Forecast

Resolve/Collaborate on Exception Items

Create Order

Collaborative Forecasting, Planning and Replenishment (CFPR)
oracle demand planning key features
Oracle Demand Planning – Key Features
  • Tight Integration with E-Business Suite
  • Highly Configurable
  • Exception Reporting
  • Measure Forecast Accuracy
  • Multiple Modeling Techniques
oracle demand planning measuring forecast accuracy
Oracle Demand Planning – Measuring Forecast Accuracy
  • Mean absolute deviation (MAD)
  • Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
  • Root mean square error (MSE)
  • Tracking signals
oracle demand planning modeling techniques
Oracle Demand Planning – Modeling Techniques
  • Moving average
  • Exponential smoothing
  • Holt-Winters
  • Linear models
oracle demand planning modeling techniques21
Oracle Demand Planning – Modeling Techniques
  • Non-linear models
  • Intermittent demand models
  • Demand Planning selects the “Best-fit” model
sony playstation 323
Sony PlayStation 3

Could Sony have predicted this event?

oracle demantra key features
Oracle Demantra – Key Features
  • Highly Configurable
  • Superior Analytics
  • Near Real-time forecast revision
  • Causal Forecasting
  • Bayesian Modeling Techniques
sony playstation 329
Sony PlayStation 3

Would real-time forecast revision have helped?

oracle demantra modeling techniques
Oracle Demantra – Modeling Techniques
  • ARIX
  • ARX
  • Auto-Regression Logistic Model
  • Holt-Winters
oracle demantra modeling techniques31
Oracle Demantra – Modeling Techniques
  • Intermittent Markov Chain Monte-Carlo model
  • Markov Chain Monty-Carlo Model
  • Logarithmic Markov Chain Monty-Carlo Model
  • Croston Model for Intermittent Demand
  • Double Exponential Smoothing model
oracle demantra modeling techniques32
Oracle Demantra – Modeling Techniques
  • Intermittent Regression model
  • Multiple Logarithmic Regression model
  • Logistic Model
  • Moving Average
oracle demantra modeling techniques33
Oracle Demantra – Modeling Techniques
  • Modified Ridge Regression model
  • Naïve model
  • Multiple Regression model
  • Models are blended. Bayesian Techniques
sony playstation 337
Sony PlayStation 3

What do you do?

contact information
Contact Information

“Quite simply, Optimum is the best implementer in the marketplace.”

— G, Abatjoglou

CFO, ChartOne, Inc.

Nick Roppolo

Principal Consultant

312.674.4700, ext 8070

nick_roppolo@optimumsolutions.com