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Demand Planning & Shaping
Trade offs • The FreshConnection is full of trade offs • Over multiple roles and within roles • Sometimesconflictingwithrole incentives Capacitymgt Demand mgt Suppliermgt Inventorymgt Demandshaping Demandforecasting
Promotion effect lead lag P D Promotion peak baseline Promotion low Baseline = Regular sales without promotions Liftfactor= promotion peak/baseline Dipfactor= promotion low/baseline Netto effect= surface P – surface D
Promotion effect - consumer and retail effect lead lag R= retail effect; goods flow from supplier to retailer C= consumer effect; goods flow from retailer to consumer PR PC DC Promotion peak DR Baseline Promotion low Liftfactor= promotion peak/baseline Dipfactor= promotion low/baseline Netto effect= surface P – surface D (=Pr-Dr=Pc-Dc)
Promotion effect - implications for the supply chain • Supply Chain must first increase and afterwards decrease output to keep synchronised with sales. • Part of the additional sales is only a shift in time. P Additional sales Forward buying or cannibalisation D Promotion peak Baseline Promotion low
The needfor a forecast stock demand tijd
Demandforecasting • Why is demandforecasting important? • Reorderpoint • Demandduringleadtime • The needforsafetystocks • Orderquantity • The needforcapacity • Warehouse • Production • The needforcomponents Quantityininventory Reorderpoint Demand during lead time (DDLT) LT LT Safetystock Time
Demandforecasting in TFC • Demandforecasting in TFC • Market trends • Servicelevel/OSA • Portfoliomanagement • Promotions • Relaunches • Demandforecastreflected in productioninterval tool
Quality of forecasting The bias: average deviationforecast en demand over a longerperiod The mape: absolute error (%) per time-bucket 0 Explore TFC What is the Mape and Bias per finished product?