Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease
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Strategies for Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Your Favorite Plant Disease. Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Director, Climate Science Program Iowa State University Ames, IA 50011 [email protected]

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Strategies for Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Your Favorite Plant Disease

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Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Strategies for Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Your Favorite Plant Disease

Eugene S. Takle

Professor of Atmospheric Science

Professor of Agricultural Meteorology

Director, Climate Science Program

Iowa State University

Ames, IA 50011

[email protected]

Midwest Weather Working Group

3rd Annual Meeting

Charlotte, NC

August 6, 2010


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Strategy being proposed herein is built on our experience with assessing impact of climate change on:

Streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Water quality (nitrates, sediment) in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Cracking and rutting potential of roadways

Soil carbon

Strategy for binary occurrence model development (Hit, Miss, False Alarm, Correct non-occurrence) is built on our experience with forecasting occurrence of frost on roadways (also analogous to forecasting occurrence of severe weather)


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Iowa State-Wide Average Data


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Iowa State-Wide Average Data

34.0”

8% increase

31.5”


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Iowa State-Wide Average Data

Totals above 40”

2 years


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Iowa State-Wide Average Data

Totals above 40”

8 years

2 years


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Cedar Rapids Data


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Cedar Rapids Data

6.6 days

4.2 days

57% increase


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Cedar Rapids Data

Years having more than 8 days

11

2

6.6 days

4.2 days

57% increase


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

IPCC 2007


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

December-January-February Temperature Change

7.2oF

6.3oF

A1B Emission Scenario

2080-2099 minus1980-1999


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

IPCC 2007


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

June-July-August Temperature Change

4.5oF

A1B Emission Scenario

2080-2099 minus1980-1999

5.4oF


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Low confidence

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

  • What environmental conditions promote your favorite plant disease?

  • +High humidity? Extended periods of high humidity?

  • +High temperature? Daytime? Nighttime? Both? Extended periods?

  • +Water-logged soils? Duration? Re-occurrence?

  • +Dew? Duration? Re-occurrence?

  • +Excessive cloudiness?

  • +Some combination of the above? Something else?

  • Are there conditions antecedent to these that allow or accelerate disease development?

  • +Insect damage?

  • +Drought?

  • +Wind damage


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Catalog all known outbreaks of this particular disease anywhere in the world

Date of onset

Areal distribution of outbreak

Speed of development, level of impact

Existence of antecedent conditions impacting outbreak

Climate conditions accompanying localized outbreaks

Are there laboratory or greenhouse studies that have been or could be done to refine the conditions favoring (and suppressing) disease development?

Use all available data on outbreaks and concurrent environmental conditions to develop a disease outbreak probability model (DM) . Use professional judgment to develop hypotheses.


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Producing Climate Scenario Databases for Studying Impacts of Climate Change

Use climate models based on fundamental physical science principles:

Conservation of momentum (Newton’s laws of motion)

Conservation of energy (First law of thermodynamics)

Conservation of mass

Equation of state (Ideal gas law: pV = nRT)

Select a scenario of future trends of emissions of greenhouse gases

Widespread adoption of energy conservation and renewable energy

Continued upward trend of dependence on fossil fuels

Use model to create a “virtual contemporary” (1980-2004) and a “virtual future” (2040-2070) climate at county level for US

Create values of all measured meteorological variables and many others not measured (evapo-transpiration, long-wave upward radiation, etc.)

Archive values every 3 hours for 30 years

Climate Change Data


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Search records of observed climate data (1980-2004) for the US using the DM to hindcast location and time of disease outbreaks

+ Compare with observed outbreaks; evaluate “false alarms”, etc.

+ This provides a model validation for the DM

Search records of virtual contemporary modeled data (1980-2004) for the US using the DM to hindcast location and time of disease outbreaks

+ This validates the climate-model/DM combination (quantifies uncertainty)

Search records of future scenario modeled data (2040-2070) for the US using the DM to predict the location and frequency of disease outbreaks in the future climate

+ This predicts the change in disease outbreak with climate change


For more information

For More Information

  • Contact me directly:

    [email protected]

  • Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory

    http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

  • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

    http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

  • For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Program website:

    http://climate.engineering.iastate.edu/

Or just Google Eugene Takle


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Climate Model Resolution

global

regional (land)

regional (water)

Only every second

RCM grid point is

shown in each

direction


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

NARCCAP Plan

A2 Emissions Scenario

HADAM3

link to EU

programs

GFDL

CCSM

CGCM3

Provide boundary conditions

2040-2070 future

1960-1990 current

RegCM3

UC Santa Cruz

ICTP

CRCM

Quebec,

Ouranos

HADRM3

Hadley Centre

WRF

NCAR/

PNNL

MM5

Iowa State/

PNNL

RSM

Scripps

Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

Impact of Climate Change on UMRB Streamflow

Sub-Basins of the

Upper Mississippi

River Basin

119 sub-basins

Outflow measured

at Grafton, IL

Approximately one

observing station

per sub-basin

Approximately one

model grid point

per sub-basin


Strategies for evaluating the impact of climate change on your favorite plant disease

SWAT Output with Various Sources of Climate Input


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