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Impact of climate cHange on aviation vulnerability

Impact of climate cHange on aviation vulnerability. Schmitz, Kreuz , Temme, Mühlhausen INAIR Conference Bratislava, November 8 th 2013. Extreme weather – an aviation perspective. Passengers stranded at airport for two days as airlines cancel flights due to big freeze (01/18/2013).

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Impact of climate cHange on aviation vulnerability

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  1. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Impact of climate cHange on aviation vulnerability Schmitz, Kreuz, Temme, Mühlhausen INAIR Conference Bratislava, November 8th 2013

  2. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Extreme weather – an aviation perspective Passengers stranded at airport for two days as airlines cancel flights due to big freeze (01/18/2013) Heathrow airport all but shut as snow hits Christmas travel plans (12/20/2010) Europe Snow Storm Closes Airports: London Heathrow Closed Until Sunday (12/18/2010) Near-Crash in Hamburg: Investigators Criticize Airbus for Inadequate Pilot Manuals (03/04/2010) http://www.webjet.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/flight-cancelled.jpg http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02450/heathrowsnow_2450348b.jpg http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/02/05/article-2096586-11991D22000005DC-617_964x533.jpg http://d1.stern.de/bilder/politik/2008/10/crash250_fitwidth_420.jpg http://thetravelingtype.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/cancelled_flights1.jpg

  3. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Outline • Definition of vulnerability in the ATM context • METAR weather codes by the ATM Performance Group (ATMAP) • Severe weather impacts on the ATM • Single airport (local view) • ATM European network (regional view) • Interdependencies of traffic conditions at airports and severe weather impacts • Conclusions

  4. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 State of ATM System* Uncertainties: type, frequency, intensity, duration and timeof occurrence disturbance Uncertainty: type of stress ATM-System Modification of system Robustness of system no stress lethal stress Uncertainty: type of pertubation survival stress New reference state of system Resilience of system transient pertubation permanent pertubation *asdefined in (Gluchshenko 2012)

  5. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Eurocontrol ATM Airport Performance (ATMAP) – GroupSeverity Classes assigned to METAR weather codes • METAR is a message containing all safety critical meteorological observations for flight operations in a given airport and nearby airspace (up to 16km from the airport) • ATMAP weather algorithm* assigns severity coefficients to the following weather classes (the higher the coefficient the more severe the weather event) • Visibility and Ceiling • Wind • Precipitations • Freezing conditions • Dangerous phenomena • En-Route weather events are not covered by METAR descriptions *Eurocontrol Technical Note: Algorithm to describe weather conditions at European airports – ATMAP weather algorithm Version 2.3, May 2011

  6. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Elements of ATMAP-weather classes with high coefficients

  7. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Severe weather impact on aviation industry (1)

  8. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Severe weather impact on aviation industry (2) Hours of the day

  9. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Severe weather impact on aviation industry (3)

  10. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Traffic over Europe, 2006-06-15

  11. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Travel time: Consequences from Kyrill Source: EUROCONTROL DDR-Data

  12. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Network effects

  13. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Interdependencies of traffic conditions at airports and severe weather impacts

  14. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Conclusions • Definition of the conditions vulnerability and resilience • Classification of weather events according to the ATMAP group • Overview of the impact of extreme weather events on the performance of the ATM system using local and regional traffic examples • Interdependencies of traffic conditions at airports and severe weather impacts Next step • Vulnerability of airports depending on their demand and airside capacity ratio

  15. > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013 Thank you for your attention!!! Michael Kreuz michael.kreuz@dlr.de Reinhard Schmitz reinhard.schmitz@dlr.de Annette Temmeannette.temme@dlr.de Thorsten Mühlhausenthorsten.muehlhausen@dlr.de DLR German Aerospace Center Institute of Flight Guidance

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