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National Integrated Drought Information System. Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Chattahooche -Flint River Basin 09 October 2012. Outline. Welcome – Keith Ingram, UF, SECC Current drought status and how we got here – David Zierden, FSU, Florida Climate Center

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National integrated drought information system

National Integrated Drought Information System

Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahooche-Flint River Basin

09 October 2012


Outline

Outline

Welcome – Keith Ingram, UF, SECC

Current drought status and how we got here – David Zierden, FSU, Florida Climate Center

Streamflows and groundwater – Tony Gotvald, USGS

Summary of lake conditions – Bailey Crane, USACE

Salinity of Apalachicola Bay – Jenna Wanat, ANERR

Seasonal outlooks – David Zierden, FSU

Streamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SE RFC


Current drought status from drought monitor

Current drought status from Drought Monitor

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html


Persistent troughing pattern

Persistent Troughing Pattern


7 day precipitation totals

7 Day Precipitation Totals


Cumulative rainfall deficits

Cumulative Rainfall Deficits

Past 30 days

Since Jan. 1

http://water.weather.gov/precip/


Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages

Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages

Current:

Previous Brief:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov


Below normal 7 day average streamflows

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows

Previous brief:

Below normal 7-day average streamflowas compared with historical streamflow for day shown

Current:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov


Lake lanier inflows

Lake Lanier Inflows

Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)

Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov


Current streamflows

Current Streamflows

Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)

Flint at Bainbridge (02356000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov


Streamflows

Streamflows

Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov


Groundwater status

Groundwater Status

Miller County, GA

(Upper Floridan Aquifer)

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov


Usace acf operations

USACE – ACF Operations


National integrated drought information system

Average Inflow into ACF Projects By Month


Lake lanier

Lake Lanier


West point

West Point


W f george

W.F. George


Woodruff

Woodruff


National integrated drought information system

2012 ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage


National integrated drought information system

Apalachicola National Estuarine

Research Reserve

East Bay

Cat Point

Dry Bar


5 day precipitation forecast

5-Day Precipitation Forecast

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml


7 day average pacific ocean sst anomalies

7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


Near surface winds

Near Surface Winds


Multivariate enso index

Multivariate ENSO Index


1 3 month precipitation outlook

1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook

3 Month

1 Month


Fall rainfall climatology

Fall Rainfall Climatology


U s drought outlook

U.S. Drought Outlook


Tropical outlook

Tropical Outlook


National integrated drought information system

1-Month Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola Watershed

Southeast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

October 4 – November 4th

2012

Whitesburg

Lovejoy

Above Normal

Carsonville

West Point

Near Normal

Columbus

Below Normal

Albany

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown


National integrated drought information system

3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola Watershed

Southeast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

October 4th 2012 –

January 4th 2013

Whitesburg

Lovejoy

Above Normal

Carsonville

West Point

Near Normal

Below Normal

Columbus

WF George

Albany

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown


Summary

Summary

Persistent troughing and slow-moving frontal boundaries have kept the Southeast and ACF basin in a moist pattern during the past two weeks, which has decreased the area of the ACF that is still under drought.

A small area in the northern part of the basin received from 4 to 6 inches during the past 7 days. The rest of the basin received 0.25 to 3 inches.

Streamflowsrecovered sharply in the northern part of the basin, but the southern streamflows are still at or below the historical low observations.


Summary1

Summary

Ground water levels in the southern part of the basin remain near historical low observations.

Reservoir levels have recovered slightly, but remain well below the historical average and mostly within conservation zone 3.

Salinity levels in Apalachicola Bay are near 20 ppt at East Bay Bottom, 22 ppt at Dry Bar, but are about 30 ppt at Cat Point, which is above the level that can injure oysters.


Summary2

Summary

The 5-day precipitation forecast for calls for no rain in the basin.

Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have dropped considerably since late August are now firmly in the Neutral range, which diminshes the likelihood that El Niño will develop.

ENSO Neutral conditions are still more favorable than La Niña for a fall and winter recharge, so the 1-month rainfall outlook calls for slightly above average rainfall in the southern part of the basin and the 3-month outlook calls for above average rainfall throughout the entire basin.


Summary3

Summary

The 1-month streamflow forecast for Lake Lanier inflows has changed to the normal range but all other locations remain below normal.

The 3-month streamflow forecasts show that streamflows are likely to be normal or above normal for Lake Lanier, but for all other locations have the highest probability of below normal streamflows, though the probabilities of normal and above normal streamflows have increased during the past two weeks.


References

References

Speakers

David Zierden, FSU

Tony Gotvald, USGS

Bailey Crane, US ACE

Jenna Wanat, ANERR

Jeff Dobur, SERFC

Moderator

Keith Ingram, UF/SECC

Additional information

  • General drought information

  • http://drought.govhttp://www.drought.unl.edu

  • General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/

  • Streamflow monitoring & forecasting

  • http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  • http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/

  • Groundwater monitoring

  • http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov


Thank you

Thank you!

Next briefing 23 October 2012, 1:00 pm EST

Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://www.drought.gov/portal/server.pt/community/acfrb

Please send comments and suggestions to:

[email protected]


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