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National Integrated Drought Information System

National Integrated Drought Information System. Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 22 July 2014. Outline. Welcome –Eric Reutebuch, AU Water Resources Center Current drought status – David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU

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National Integrated Drought Information System

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  1. National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 22 July 2014

  2. Outline Welcome –Eric Reutebuch, AU Water Resources Center Current drought status – David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU Streamflows and groundwater – Brian McCallum, USGS Seasonal forecasts and outlooks – David Zierden, FSU Streamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SERFC Summary and Discussion

  3. Current drought status

  4. Return of the “Polar Vortex”!

  5. 7-day Rainfall Totals

  6. Lawn and Garden Moisture Index

  7. 30-Day Rainfall

  8. 90-day Rainfall Departures

  9. Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: Previous Brief: Brian McCallum http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  10. Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous brief: Below normal 7-day average streamflowas compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  11. Lake Lanier Inflows • Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600) • Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  12. Current Streamflows • Chattahoochee at Atlanta (02336000) • Chattahoochee near Whitesburg (02338000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  13. Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500) Chattahoochee near Columbus (02341505) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  14. Current Streamflows Flint River near Griffin (02344500) Flint River near Carsonville (02347500) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  15. Current Streamflows Flint River at Albany (02352500) Flint at Bainbridge (02356000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  16. Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  17. Groundwater Conditions Previous brief Current brief http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

  18. Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

  19. 7-Day Precipitation Forecast http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml David Zierden

  20. Tropics Heating Up

  21. 7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

  22. Nino Indices

  23. Winds Over the Pacific

  24. Subsurface Temperatures Late April Current

  25. ENSO forecast from CPC/IRI

  26. 1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 1 Month 3 Month

  27. Hurricane Formation Regions

  28. Summer Rainfall Climatology

  29. U.S. Drought Outlook

  30. 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts Apalachicola Watershed Southeast River Forecast Center Lake Lanier Inflows July 18th – August 18th 2014 Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Carsonville West Point Near Normal Columbus Below Normal Albany WF George Columbus Jeff Dobur Woodruff Blountstown

  31. Summary-David Zierden Abnormal? dryness (not drought) creeping in to the Southeast and ACF Basin Lawn and Garden index shows moist conditions in Florida, mixed in Alabama and Georgia Overall, the upper and middle ACF basin has seen near normal rainfall at 90 days

  32. Summary-Brian McCallum Realtimestreamflows are in the normal range generally, but drop towards below normal conditions as you move downstream. Inflows into Lake Lanier continue in normal range. Streamflows are at below normal conditions throughout the Flint River basin. Groundwater levels are at above normal levels in South Georgia

  33. Summary-David Zierden Development of El Nino likely? (75%) in the next 1-3 months, likely strength looking less and less El Nino a primary reason for below normal hurricane forecast One-month CPC outlook calls for equal chances, wetter in the Southwest. Not verifying well… Climatologically can expect 5-6” in July, but only 3-5” in August. More for the coastal areas.

  34. Summary-Jeff Dobur 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Near Normal 3 Month Streamflow forecast – Near Normal Not much change from previous forecast

  35. References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Brian McCallum, USGS Jeff Dobur, SERFC Moderator Eric Reutebuch, AU WRC Additional information • General drought information • http://drought.govhttp://www.drought.unl.edu • General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/ • Streamflow monitoring & forecasting • http://waterwatch.usgs.gov • http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/ • Groundwater monitoring • http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

  36. Thank you! Next briefing August 19, 2014, 1:00 pm EDT Moderator: Eric Reutebuch Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regional-drought-webinars Please send comments and suggestions to: reuteem@auburn.edu

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