Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011
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Hamilton Air Quality and Health Impacts Study - 2011. Presented to: Upwind Downwind Conference Presented by: Dr. Douglas Chambers February 27, 2012. 1. Background. Project a result of interest by Clean Air Hamilton (CAH) to update Health Impacts Assessment

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Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Hamilton Air Qualityand Health Impacts Study - 2011

Presented to:

Upwind Downwind Conference

Presented by:

Dr. Douglas Chambers

February 27, 2012

1


Background

Background

  • Project a result of interest by Clean Air Hamilton (CAH) to update Health Impacts Assessment

    • Significant work undertaken by CAH and partners to lower air concentrations in Hamilton for many pollutants


Some initiatives to improve air quality

Some Initiativesto Improve Air Quality

Public Health initiatives (AQHI)

Sustainable transportation initiatives (anti-idling, mobile monitoring)

Improved air monitoring (Hamilton Air Monitoring Network On-line)

Air Quality communication (CAH website)

Emission reductions (wood burning efficiency initiative)


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

City of Hamilton Boundaries


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Air Pollutants Considered

  • Fine Particulate Matter

    • PM10 and PM2.5

  • Nitrogen Dioxide

    • Surrogate for NOx as NO converted rapidly to NO2

  • Sulphur Dioxide

  • Ozone

  • Carbon Monoxide


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Air Quality - PM2.5


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Air Quality – PM10


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Air Quality – NO2


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Air Quality – SO2


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Air Quality – O3


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Air Quality – CO


Previous study 2003

Previous Study - 2003

Used Dr. Pengelly’s Hamilton Air Quality Initiative 1997 report as a basis

Used same methodology to allow for comparison

Updated the relative risk outcomes for PM10, NO2, SO2, CO and O3

Adjusted health outcomes by 42% due to errors in the derivation of the relative risks from the literature


Current study

Current Study

  • Used same methodology as 2003 study

  • Updated air quality data

    • Obtained from the MOE

  • Updated mortality and morbidity health data

    • Obtained from Hamilton Public Health Services


Current study cont d

Current Study …cont’d

  • Updated relative risks where new studies were available

    • All relative risks for mortality updated

    • Only some for morbidity

      • Adopted relative risks from 2003 study

  • Included health outcomes for PM2.5


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Assumptions Used in Current Study

  • Focus on relative risks of acute exposures

    • Similar to previous study

  • Used average relative risks values

    • Separate relative risks for each air pollutant

      • May result in double-counting

  • Considered representative air concentrations

    • No consideration of proximity to industry or major roadways


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Health Data

  • Obtained Health Data from City of Hamilton Public Health Services

  • Mortality Data

    • Only available up to 2005

  • Morbidity Data

    • Cardiovascular hospital admissions up to 2008

    • Respiratory hospital admissions up to 2008


Mortality and morbidity rates for hamilton

Mortality and Morbidity Rates for Hamilton

* Approximated by Total Acute Care Hospital Discharges for Disease of the Circulatory System

** Approximated by Acute Care Hospital Discharges for Disease of the Respiratory System


Relative risks used in the study

Relative Risks Used in the Study

Note:

“-” no data available in the literature to determine a relative risk

* relative risks obtained from Sahsuvaroglu and Jerrett (2003) as no new data available


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Model Equation

  • Risk (due AQ) = ER[excess relative risk due to AQ] x [baseline rates]

  • =  [ERR (per unit Concentration)] x [Air concentration] x [ baseline rates]


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

NT Acute Exposure Mortality


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Note: PM10, NO2 and O3 Respiratory Hospital Admissions Adjusted by 42% as Using RR Values from 2003 Study

Respiratory HospitalAdmissions


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Note: SO2 and CO Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions Adjusted by 42% as Using RR Values from 2003 Study

Note: PM10, NO2 and O3 Respiratory Hospital Admissions Adjusted by 42% as Using RR Values from 2003 Study

Cardiovascular HospitalAdmissions


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Results Summary

for Particulate Matter

Note: No relative risks from literature for respiratory admissions for PM2.5


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Results Summary

for NO2 and SO2


Hamilton air quality and health impacts study 2011

Results Summary

for O3 and CO

Note: No relative risks from literature for respiratory admissions for CO


Summary of results for current study

Summary of Resultsfor Current Study


Comparison of relative risks between current and previous studies

Comparison of Relative Risks Between Current and Previous Studies


Comparison of mortality outcomes

Comparison of Mortality Outcomes

  • Note:

  • All 1997 and 2003 study data adjusted by 42% to account for overestimation of RR values


Comparison of respiratory outcomes

Comparison of Respiratory Outcomes

  • Note:

  • All 1997 and 2003 study data adjusted by 42% to account for overestimation of RR values

  • PM10, NO2 and O3 current study values adjusted by 42% as no updated RR values were available


Comparison of cardiovascular outcomes

Comparison of Cardiovascular Outcomes

  • Note:

  • All 1997 and 2003 study data adjusted by 42% to account for overestimation of RR values

  • SO2 and CO current study values adjusted by 42% as no updated RR values were available


Alternative models icap

Alternative Models - ICAP

  • Details:

  • Developed by DSS Management Consultants for the Canadian Medical Association

  • PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, O3

  • Historical census division specific air quality data from NAPS stations

  • Input: risk rates, air quality or trends, baseline/background air quality

  • Output: annual events and economic damages attributable to increase in specific parameter level from baseline/background


Alternative models icap cont d

Alternative Models – ICAP… cont’d

  • Limitations for this application:

  • 2006 starting year complicates comparison with current model

  • Cannot easily calculate incremental benefit or savings (damages only)

    • For this study can only demonstrate incremental health effects and economic impact with ozone as benefits associated with other pollutants

  • Cannot evaluate all pollutants in one run

  • Output format inconvenient to work with

  • Evaluates total mortality only (not chronic and acute separately)


Comparison of relative risks between current study and icap

Comparison of Relative Risks Between Current Studyand ICAP

* ICAP NT Mortality is Total While Current is Acute Only


Results from icap model ozone

Results from ICAP Model- Ozone


Alternative model aqbat

Alternative Model - AQBAT

  • Details:

  • Developed by Dave Stieb and Stan Judek, Health Canada

  • PM10, PM2.5 (limited), SO2, NO2, CO, O3

  • Historical census division specific air quality data from NAPS stations

  • Input: risk rates and air quality or trends

  • Output: annual events and damages attributable to increase in specific parameter level from baseline

  • Limitations for this application:

  • Cannot Input Air Quality Prior to 2003 for Comparison to Baseline

  • Difficult to Compare to Total Events per Year


Comparison of relative risks between current study and aqbat

Comparison of Relative Risks Between Current Study and AQBAT


Results from aqbat 1

Results from AQBAT (1)


Results from aqbat 2

Results from AQBAT (2)


Economic valuation aqbat

Economic Valuation - AQBAT

Millions of Dollars

Savings Cost


Summary

Summary

  • Updated Health Study showed improvements to health outcomes

    • Due to decreases in air concentrations

      • Ozone the exception

    • Due to decreases in relative risks from literature studies

  • Limited utility of other available models for this application

    • Direct comparisons difficult to make between models

  • Cost heavily dependent on model

    • Can vary widely (in this example at least 5-fold)

  • Should update the health study in another 5 years


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