Western Water Supply & NWS Water Resources

1. Western Water Supply&NWS Water Resources Kevin Werner, Lisa Holts, Drew Peterson, CBRFC Andrew Murray, WRH Don Laurine, NWRFC Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC Ross Wolford, MBRFC Tony Anderson, ABRFC Paul McKee, WGRFC Jim Noel, OHRFC Mary Mullusky, OCWWS

2. Outline • Site Overview • Future Plans

3. NWS Western Water Supply /Water Resources Outlook 2008 version 2009 version: www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

7. Easy to understand • Meaningful • Accessible from forecasts • Dynamically generated plots from database Data Visualization • Examine and get a feel for the data. • Are there patterns in the data? • Historical • Streamflow Histogram • Scatterplot Error and Skill Score • Examine through lead time or water year. • Are some data sources better than others? • Are forecasts improving over time? • Mean Absolute Error • Root Mean Square Error • Root Mean Squared Error Skill Score

8. Forecast Uncertainty • Examine the forecast exceedance values. • Are the bounds too high or too low? • Rank Histogram Categorical • Do the forecast track extreme years? • Are forecasts improved with lead time? • Probability of Detection • False Alarm Rate • Contingency Table Climate Variability • How does the basin act from year to year? Is there a general trend? • Lag -1 Climate Variability

9. Dynamic • Graph changes on click • Mouse-over displays info about graph • Threshold • Default is Climatology / Historical Average (KAF) • Graph Options • Any Combination of Options • Different options based on statistic chosen

10. Early Verification Successes: • First systematic look at water supply forecast verification • CBRFC using to drive developments for water supply forecast program • Customers using to inform decisions and validate forecasts

11. Key Verification Result #1: ESP generally outperforms all other forecasts • ESP reforecasts made over 1980-2005 with no forecaster intervention • Compared to archived official forecasts and tools • Suggests well calibrated continuous RFC models could be the foundation of water supply forecast system • Important implications for future of water supply forecast process

12. Key Verification Result #2: Forecasts have generally improved in recent years 2001-2008 • Reasons not well understood • 2000s have been drier than previous years • Forecasters have increasingly leveraged ESP 1992-2000

13. Key Verification Result #3: Categorical skill is near perfect for low years but not so good for high years Below Above

14. CBRFC Efforts

16. 0.1oF / Year 4oF Change by 2050

17. Climate Change Scenarios Box Spaghetti - 0.5%/ Year - 0.5% Change by 2011 - 0.5%/ Year - 0.5%*4 Change by 2015 Monthly Yearly

18. Sortable

19. Future Directions Forecast Ensemble Adjustment Climate Change Scenarios Short Range Hydrologic Scenarios Link to Drought Services Leverage monthly / seasonal precipitation Enhanced Ensemble Services for drought and water resources Expanded ESP verification Web Site Improvements

20. Map Forecasts Verification Climate Change Data About Water Supply Tools Ensemble Forecasts • Flood Risk • -3 months • -Weekly • Accumulate Over Time: • Months • Seasons • Year • Risk of Low Flow: • -Daily mean • -Week mean • -Month mean • Peak Flow: • -Flow • -Time to peak • Time Domain: • -Start • -End Map Outlook Verification Data Water Resource Tools

21. Future Steps - Spring strategy meeting for developers - Possible developments: - Revisit database schema and identify new datasets needed - Identify new WRO capabilities such as including forecast streamflow percentile on map, ESP verification, conversions to mean daily flow, gridded monthly NCDC precipitation, etc - How to incorporate new items and make it more SIMPLE at the same time - Solicit / engage user community for feedback, requirements, etc.

22. Contact www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater Questions: Lisa Holts, Kevin Werner (CBRFC) Suggestions/Comments: Alan Haynes, Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, (CNRFC)