1 / 36

Chernobyl: radioactive fallout and health consequences in Europe

Chernobyl: radioactive fallout and health consequences in Europe. Dr Ian Fairlie Consultant on Radiation in the Environment London United Kingdom. The Other Report on CHernobyl (TORCH). independent of governments, agencies and industry

raven
Download Presentation

Chernobyl: radioactive fallout and health consequences in Europe

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Chernobyl: radioactive fallout and health consequences in Europe Dr Ian FairlieConsultant on Radiation in the EnvironmentLondonUnited Kingdom

  2. The Other Report on CHernobyl (TORCH) • independent of governments, agencies and industry • funded by Greens/EFA of European Parliament; Altner-Crombacher Foundation; Hatzfeld Foundation • peer-reviewed • www.chernobylreport.org

  3. OVERVIEW • Introduction • How much radioactivity discharged • Where did the cloud go • Health effects • Collective doses • Predicted excess cancer deaths • Conclusions

  4. Introduction - official quotes • “…foremost nuclear catastrophe in human history” IAEA (1996) • “… by far, the worst industrial disaster on record” IAEA/WHO (2005a) • Chernobyl radioactivity 200 times that from Hiroshima and Nagasaki - WHO/IPHECA (1995)

  5. Dispersalsource: ARAC, Lawrence Livermore Research Laboratory, California, US (reproduced from OECD (2002)

  6. Main RadionuclidesPBq=1015 Bq

  7. Main Radionuclides • Cs-137 remains worldwide • Sr-90 remains <100 km • I-131 important for ~3 months after the explosions • long-lived alpha-emitters <100 km

  8. Cs-137 Contamination - Area

  9. Contamination (Cs-137) PBq Amounts sources:EC Atlas (1998) * USDoE (1987)

  10. % of total emitted Cs-137 in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia

  11. Residual radionuclides – PBq

  12. Restrictions Still in Place • UK:370 farms (>750 km2) and 200,000 sheep • Sweden, Finland:stock animals, reindeer • parts of Germany, Austria, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Lithuania, Poland: wild boar,deer, wild mushrooms, berries, carnivore fish • Germany: Cs-137 in wild boar averages 7 kBq/kg >10 x EU limit of 0.6 kBq/kg

  13. EC Commission (2005)Andris Piebalgs, European Energy Commissioner, written answer to Question P-1234/05DE by MEP Rebecca Harms - April 4, 2005 “…it is not possible to conclude that there will be any further substantial decrease over the next decades, except due to the radioactive decay of Cs-137 and Sr-90 ...”

  14. Cs-137 Air Activity/Body BurdenBelgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK.CEN) Molhttp://www.sckcen.be/sckcen_en/publications/brochures/tsjernobyl/20jaar/tsjernobyl20_EN.pdf

  15. 4.2 Health Effects • thyroid cancer • leukaemia • solid cancers • non-cancer effects • heritable effects • mental health + psychosocial effects

  16. 4.3Thyroid Cancer Incidenceper 100,000 children and adolescentssource: Jacob et al (2005)

  17. 12 Incidence per 100 000 in Belarus Adolescents 10 Children (0 -14) Adolescents (15 -18) Adults (19 - 34) 8 Young adult s 6.9 Cases per 100 000 6 4 Children 2 0.3 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Thyroid Cancer Incidence (2)

  18. How many more excess thyroid cancers?Cardis E, Amoros E and Kesminiene A (1999) • Cardis et al (1999) estimate 18,000 - 66,000 in Belarus alone • 18,000 assumes 40 years • 66,000 assumes whole life

  19. Increase in cancer incidence(per 100,000 population) in Belarus liquidators 1997-2000, compared with control adults in least contaminated area (20-85 ) source: Okeanov et al (2004) *statistically significant differences

  20. Non-cancer diseases (in Japanese bomb survivors) source: Preston et al, 2003all statistically significant

  21. Collective Doses in W Europe person Sv fromOECD/NEA (1996) first year x 3.3)

  22. Predicted Excess Cancer Deaths from Chernobyl in B.U.R. from lifetime exposure of 95 years source: table 16.4 in IAEA/WHO (2005a) except total

  23. Predicted Excess Cancer Deaths from Chernobyl in B.U.R.

  24. Predicted Excess Cancer Deaths from Chernobyl – world

  25. Conclusions • 50% Chernobyl fallout in W Europe • 40% of Europe land area contaminated • 30,000-60,000 cancer deaths • 18,000-66,000 thyroid cancers in Belarus • other solid cancers now appearing • residual Cs-137 levels in forest foods, sheep, reindeer in W Europe • Cs-137 contamination will remain for hundreds of years

  26. Questions about more nuclear power • prudent to say no more accidents? • a Sustainable Development? • consistent with the Precautionary Principle? • ethical to pass radioactive wastes to future generations? • ethical to increase weapons proliferation?

  27. George Santayanaphilosopher (1863 - 1952) ...governments that are unable to learn from history are condemned to repeat it...

More Related