Cpc drought forecasting and nidis
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CPC Drought Forecasting and NIDIS . Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC 5 th U.S. Drought Monitor Forum Portland, Oregon October 10-11, 2007. Outline. Overview of how the CPC Outlook is put together Recent changes to the Drought Outlook Verification: How are we doing?

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CPC Drought Forecasting and NIDIS

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Cpc drought forecasting and nidis

CPC Drought Forecasting and NIDIS

Douglas Le Comte

NOAA/CPC

5th U.S. Drought Monitor Forum

Portland, Oregon

October 10-11, 2007


Outline

Outline

  • Overview of how the CPC Outlook is put together

  • Recent changes to the Drought Outlook

  • Verification: How are we doing?

  • The Future: Meeting the Needs of NIDIS


Latest seasonal drought outlook

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

Latest Seasonal Drought Outlook


Short and long term forecast contributions

Short and Long-term Forecast Contributions

+

+


Principal drought outlook inputs

Principal Drought Outlook Inputs

2-Wk Soil Moisture

CPC Long-Lead

Precip. Outlook

Constructed Analogue Soil Model

Palmer 4-mo

Probabilities

Medium-Range Fcst


Recent changes

Recent Changes

  • Began twice/month schedule (1st and 3rd Thursday)

  • Expanding CPC authors

  • Changed wording of headings (“Tendency”, valid dates)


Changes recently considered

Changes Recently Considered

  • Add separate category for drought intensification

  • Abolish or re-define “Some Improvement” category

  • Automate verification calculations


Drought verification jul sep 2007

Drought Verification Jul-Sep 2007


Cpc drought forecasting and nidis

Improvement over PersistencePercent of Grid Points Correct vs a Forecast Based on Persisting Droughts

Long-term mean = 13%


Nidis and drought forecasting from the nidis implementation plan june 2007

NIDIS and Drought ForecastingFrom the NIDIS Implementation Plan, June 2007

  • “Ensemble drought prediction is needed to maximize forecast skill, and downscaling is needed to bring coarse resolution drought forecasts from General Circulation Models down to the resolution of a watershed.”

  • “Improved understanding of the dynamical causes of long-term trends….”

  • Two basic approaches to drought prediction: 1) prediction of drought indices, and 2) prediction of hydrological conditions.


Fy08 climate test bed priority for nidis drought

FY08 Climate Test Bed Priority for NIDIS-Drought

  • New Drought Monitoring Products: Multi-model ensemble NLDAS

  • New Drought Forecast Tools:

    • Objective drought forecasts based on CFS and statistical tools

    • Improved seasonal forecasts based on improved land-atmosphere coupling

    • Improved medium-range prediction

      based on NAEFs


Princeton soil moisture forecast

Princeton Soil Moisture Forecast

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

Coupled Forecast System


University of washington forecasts

http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/outlook/index.shtml

University of Washington Forecasts


Two path approach to improving drought forecasts at cpc

Two Path Approach to Improving Drought Forecasts at CPC

  • Continue to produce and refine seasonal drought outlooks for the general public

  • Develop objective seasonal probability forecasts for drought (guidance useful for an array of users)


One prototype suggestion of a probabilistic forecast

One Prototype Suggestion of a Probabilistic Forecast


Prediction is very difficult especially about the future niels bohr danish physicist not yogi berra

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (not Yogi Berra)


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