Cpc drought forecasting and nidis
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CPC Drought Forecasting and NIDIS . Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC 5 th U.S. Drought Monitor Forum Portland, Oregon October 10-11, 2007. Outline. Overview of how the CPC Outlook is put together Recent changes to the Drought Outlook Verification: How are we doing?

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CPC Drought Forecasting and NIDIS

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CPC Drought Forecasting and NIDIS

Douglas Le Comte

NOAA/CPC

5th U.S. Drought Monitor Forum

Portland, Oregon

October 10-11, 2007


Outline

  • Overview of how the CPC Outlook is put together

  • Recent changes to the Drought Outlook

  • Verification: How are we doing?

  • The Future: Meeting the Needs of NIDIS


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

Latest Seasonal Drought Outlook


Short and Long-term Forecast Contributions

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Principal Drought Outlook Inputs

2-Wk Soil Moisture

CPC Long-Lead

Precip. Outlook

Constructed Analogue Soil Model

Palmer 4-mo

Probabilities

Medium-Range Fcst


Recent Changes

  • Began twice/month schedule (1st and 3rd Thursday)

  • Expanding CPC authors

  • Changed wording of headings (“Tendency”, valid dates)


Changes Recently Considered

  • Add separate category for drought intensification

  • Abolish or re-define “Some Improvement” category

  • Automate verification calculations


Drought Verification Jul-Sep 2007


Improvement over PersistencePercent of Grid Points Correct vs a Forecast Based on Persisting Droughts

Long-term mean = 13%


NIDIS and Drought ForecastingFrom the NIDIS Implementation Plan, June 2007

  • “Ensemble drought prediction is needed to maximize forecast skill, and downscaling is needed to bring coarse resolution drought forecasts from General Circulation Models down to the resolution of a watershed.”

  • “Improved understanding of the dynamical causes of long-term trends….”

  • Two basic approaches to drought prediction: 1) prediction of drought indices, and 2) prediction of hydrological conditions.


FY08 Climate Test Bed Priority for NIDIS-Drought

  • New Drought Monitoring Products: Multi-model ensemble NLDAS

  • New Drought Forecast Tools:

    • Objective drought forecasts based on CFS and statistical tools

    • Improved seasonal forecasts based on improved land-atmosphere coupling

    • Improved medium-range prediction

      based on NAEFs


Princeton Soil Moisture Forecast

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

Coupled Forecast System


http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/outlook/index.shtml

University of Washington Forecasts


Two Path Approach to Improving Drought Forecasts at CPC

  • Continue to produce and refine seasonal drought outlooks for the general public

  • Develop objective seasonal probability forecasts for drought (guidance useful for an array of users)


One Prototype Suggestion of a Probabilistic Forecast


“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (not Yogi Berra)


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