South carolina drought forecasting
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South Carolina Drought Forecasting. Greg Carbone and Kirstin Dow Department of Geography University of South Carolina. Outline Community water systems managers in South Carolina Resampling methodology applied to drought forecasting Sample products. Investigating CWS Managers.

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South Carolina Drought Forecasting

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South carolina drought forecasting

South Carolina Drought Forecasting

Greg Carbone and Kirstin Dow

Department of Geography

University of South Carolina


South carolina drought forecasting

Outline

Community water systems managers in South Carolina

Resampling methodology applied to drought forecasting

Sample products


Investigating cws managers

Investigating CWS Managers

  • 3 Focus groups

  • 4 meetings with key informants

  • Survey results from 269 managers (52%)


5 day forecasts

Confidence in…

5 - Day Forecasts

3-Month Forecasts

Percentage


Survey questions included in use of forecasts for planning

Survey Questions Included in Use of Forecasts for Planning


Summary of cws managers views

Summary of CWS Managers Views

  • CWS managers’ have some confidence in climate forecasts, but……

  • Confidence does not increase the likelihood that CWS managers will use forecasts

  • Level of concern over risks and severity of consequences offers greater insight into uses of forecasts


South carolina drought forecasting

South Carolina Drought Stages


Anticipating future drought indices

Anticipating future drought indices

  • Resample from climatology

  • Incorporate long-lead forecasts


South carolina drought forecasting

Using Climatology (“equal chances”)

Above

Normal

Precipitation

Below

Below

Normal

Above

Temperature


South carolina drought forecasting

Above

Normal

Precipitation

Below

Below

Normal

Above

Temperature


South carolina drought forecasting

Above

Normal

Precipitation

Below

Below

Normal

Above

Temperature


South carolina drought forecasting

May 2002 drought prediction

(made on January 1, 2002)


South carolina drought forecasting

“El Nino Projections”

(made 1 June 2002)


South carolina drought forecasting

“El Nino Projections”


Final thoughts

Final Thoughts

  • Seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts can be used for “secondary products” that address particular concerns and awareness

    • Risk aversion, past experience

  • Since interannual variability swamps marginal probability shifts, exploit the historical climate record

  • Purveyors need regional-scale appreciation for user knowledge base and requirements


Community water systems

Community Water Systems

  • Provide water to at least 25 people or 15 service connections year round (EPA)

  • Variety of water sizes, water sources

  • Risk aversion: reliability/resilience built into management and systems

  • Other management criteria: profitability, competitiveness, politically influenced


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